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. " " : " " . " " (3) :

(1) possible futures .

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. ( 4 ) . . .

(Delphi Method) (ethnographic futures research) .

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. . . .

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. (4) :

1- time series methods " " causal " " . . random walk model ( ) . trend extrapolation . . " - ".

2- cohort-component method - .

3- causal models . . econometric models input-output models programming models optimization simulation models systems dynamics ( " " ) . . flow charts . actual analogs .

4- gaming role playing . .

5- cross impact analysis . . .

6- participatory methods . . . participatory future praxis participatory action research futures workshops social experiments ethnographic futures research - ( ) .

7- . method of analogy . . . leading series ( ) .

8- . monitoring . Naisbitt megatrends . content analysis messages .

9- . surveys . panel discussion brain storming Delphi method .

10- Scenarios . . . . methodological unity . . foresight - .

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" " . 169 2000 1000 .

. 1998 . . . . . . .

. . : www.egypt2020.org ( : egypt2020@egypt2020.org : 20sabry2@gega.net sabry2020@hotmail.com)

: . - - . - . - . - . .

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1 - 2020 .

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3 - . ( ) . 10% 90% . 2020 2020 . . .

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. . . . . 2020 .(1) : (3) 2020 1999 .

(2) . World Future Society The Futurist Futures Research Quarterly Futures Research Directory: Organizations and Periodical Futures Research Directory: Individuals. : www.wfs.org

: World Future Studies Federatrion : Futures Bulletin World Future Studies Federation Newsletter :

HYPERLINK http://www.world www.world futures.org

:

Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Transaction Publishers, New Jersey, 1997.

(4) Wendell Bell . :

R. Slaughter, Futures Tools and Techniques, Future Study Centre and DDM Media Group, Melbourne/Australia, 1995.

R. Slaughter (ed.), The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, DDM Media Group, Victoria/Australia, 1996 (3 vols).

:

1992 - 1995 .

(1) 2020 1998 .

(6) : 2020 2020 (2) 2020 1998 59 71 .

(7) Pivotal states . :

R. Chase, E. Hill, and P. Kennedy, "Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy", Foreign Affairs, vol., 75, No.1, Jan/Feb. 1996, pp. 33-51.

: .

. " 2020 - " . .

: . . . : . . . .

1997 " 2020 - " : Egypt 2020 - A Research Project ) " " = 1998 1998 : Egypt 2020 - A Futures Research Project .

:

Ibrahim El-Issawy and Alwaled El-Shafei, SMEE 1 : A Simulation Model of the Egyptian Economy , with special emphasis on economic - demographic interactions , Institute of National Planning , Cairo , memo. 1211 (external), Dec. 1977.

:

Ismail Sabri Abdallah ,"Development of Egypt - Two Experiences and Three Scenarios", L' Egypte Contemporaine , no. 435/6, Jan/April 1994.

:

Ibrahim El-Issawy (Principal investigator), Population and Development in Alternative Egyptian Futures , Population and Family Planning Board, Cairo,Dec.1982.

2000 (EDCAS 2000) 14 .

2000 . . : (10) 1980 .

2000 1975 .

:

Ibrahim S. Abdallah ,"Arab Alternative Futures : Main Features, Implicit Assumptions, and Basic Conclusions", Arab Economic Journal, Autumn 1993.

:

Ibrahim El-Issawy, "Exploring the Future of the Arab Nation", Arab Economic Journal, Autumn 1992

:

OAPE and EINI, The Interdependence Project-General Report, OAPEC and EINI, Dec. 1985.

.

2020 - - - 1998 .

* * .

. .

2020 2020 (4) 2020 - 1999 8-13.

2020 (1) 2020 - 1998 24 .

: 2020 2020 (2) 2020 1998 . . : 2020 (4) 2020 1999 .

(1) : ( ) - (2) : 2020 ( ) - (3) ( ) - (4) : 2020 ( ) .

(1) : ( ) - (2) : ( ) - (3) : ( ) .

- ( ) .

20 ( ).

21 ( ).

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