Part IV: Objectives & Context Analysis – Systems Thinking

Analyze a major historical system failure from the perspective of conceptual design. Assess how – or whether – better systems engineering conceptual design could have averted or ameliorated the impact of system failure.

a) Sinking of the Titanic (1912).

The key flaws associated with the conceptual design method for the Titanic include a lack of planning of the following categories: objectives analysis, scenario development, functional analysis, and performance requirements. The tragedy that is known as the sinking of the Titanic could have been averted or ameliorated if certain crucial steps in the design process were followed. However, due to insufficient conceptual design, many lives were lost unnecessarily. The aforementioned topics will be assessed according to their impact on the system failure.

The systems engineers made another mistake by not defining key objectives in an objectives analysis practice. The worst-case scenario accounted for in objectives analysis was a head on collision. The ship was designed to be able to handle frontal collisions, yet failed to address side collisions.

The iceberg that ultimately led to the tragedy of the Titanic was spotted a mere five minutes before striking with the ship. During these five minutes, there was not enough time to maneuver through the icebergs to be able to avoid the collision. Thus, the iceberg sideswept the Titanic, puncturing holes into its hulls, filling the air with water

During objectives analysis, several conflicting objectives would have appeared. For example, the battle of safety vs. aesthetic beauty would have materialized in determining what objectives were contradictory. The Titanic was created to be the best of its kind, a luxurious steamship carrying quite wealthy (and poor) passengers. However, a key objective that was overlooked was the safety of all of these passengers. A line of boats for evacuating the passengers was removed from the Titanic, due to its blocking of the ocean view.

When conducting objectives analysis, not all of the environmental actors were accounted for, such as fog. Preparing a system for unstable environmental conditions is fundamental to the design process. While a system is operating in production phase, a plethora of environmental changes can occur, all within a moment’s notice. During the time of the sinking of the Titanic, there was a slight haze surrounding the water in the ice floats.

Additionally, if the environment was considered a potential actor, it should have been subdivided further into two categories, the water and the atmosphere. The water categories would have included icebergs, coral reefs, shallow banks, and unruly waves. The atmosphere would have accounted for any variances in visibility, such as clear skies, sun, moon, haze, fog, and rain. By separating the two environment actors, the systems engineers of the Titanic design could have accounted for situations where both environments would affect the Titanic’s ability to navigate the waters, a key objective.

Establishing measures of effectiveness (MOEs) for the objectives could have helped the conceptual design phase as well. Had objectives analysis been done, an objective such as maneuver the boat could have been measured by determining how fast the ship could turn in a knots/minute method. Maneuvering the boat through any type of situation where time is of the essence is important to ensure the boat is performing to maximum capability. By measuring the boat’s ability to turn rapidly, systems engineers could have better accounted for the encountering of submerged objects.

Another fundamental issue in the conceptual design process of the Titanic was a lack of scenario planning. Planning for different terrains is a key element during scenario development. The physical terrain is important to consider in scenarios, for the water environment changed throughout the Titanic journey. The ice floats bobbing in the water were a risk to ships traveling to the Americas. When scenarios are created during the system conceptual design phase, situations that could cause the system to malfunction would manifest. Once these situations are depicted in some form, systems engineers can better understand how to mitigate the risks that have become apparent, or avoid the risk altogether.

For example, the systems engineers should have created a scenario modeling a similar situation to the one the Titanic experienced. Such a scenario could have manifested as this: The Titanic has left dock for a couple of days, running smoothly on target as planned. Systems are running great, and the Titanic is running full speed to America. The night falls upon the Titanic, and the ship is now cruising through water filled with ice floats. There is a slight fog in the air, reducing visibility to less than a few hundred miles from ship. An iceberg is spotted a few miles up ahead and the captain is alerted and must decide how to act.

From this scenario, the systems engineer can gather several key planning objectives. The systems engineer can account for low visibility in the environment and which system to implement to help mitigate that risk. The iceberg spotting would create an additional objective as to how to detect large objects submerged partially or fully underwater. The scenario provides basis for procedures that must be drafted in case of an emergency, communications between different engineers onboard, what safety mechanisms need to be put in place for the passengers, any training required for the ship crew for evacuation purposes, and safety training required for passengers in case of accidents. Had this scenario (or a similar scenario) been created in the system conceptual design phase, perhaps the simple act of evacuating more passengers in a safe method would have been enforced.

Flawed functional analysis also contributed to the downfall of the Titanic. Functional analysis, being dependent upon objectives analysis, would have provided a clear understanding of what objectives can be traced to functions for the steamship. For example, if the objective, “increase ship survivability” were defined, then the potential function, “maneuver around icebergs” would have been created. In this method, the ship’s design could have been equipped to handle maneuvering around large obstacles threatening its foundation.

Had a thorough performance requirements analysis been drafted, the critical design flaw in non-modular compartments would have become abundantly clear. A crucial step in ensuring systems

are modular is to administer component-by-component engineering, involving the least amount of overlap required between components. The watertight compartments beneath the waterline were designed to be watertight, however, water could spill over from compartment to compartment. Good modularity in conceptual design would have sealed off each cabin individually, preventing water from overflowing from each cabin. The rapidly increasing amount of water spilling into the cabins could have been prevented had they not been tightly coupled.

References: http://www.history.com/topics/titanic