competitive intelligence in action final copy 1 english
TRANSCRIPT
Qingjiu Tao, Ph.D.
Assistant professor of management
James Madison University
Email: [email protected]
COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE IN ACTION
竞争情报在行动 —THE CASE OF MUDDY WATER’S ATTACK ON
LISTED FIRMS
浑水公司对在美上市企业的攻击案例
陶庆久
The China Growth Story and firms listing in the U.S. stock market
中国经济的飞速增长，中国企业在美国上市融资
The bloody battle field—fall of many Chinese firms listed in America (Nasdaq, Amex)
大批在美上市企业遇到狙击，战况惨烈
Attack from Citron—20 researched, 16 suffered losses of 66% to 100%, and 7 have been delisted.
香橼攻击了20家企业，16家股价下滑66%到100%不等，7家下市
Attacks from Muddy Water—Oriental Paper, Sino Forest, CCME
RINO,New Oriental，etc.
浑水公司攻击了东方纸业，中森国际，聚众传媒，大连绿诺，新东方等企业，其中多家企业被摘牌下市
THE SITUATION 案例背景
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RINO股票走势图
绿诺国际
3
Researcher (C I ) 研究调查公司（CI）
Muddy Water Research and Citron, etc. 浑水研究和香橼
“Muddy Waters Research sees through appearances to a Chinese company’s t rue wor th. Our research di rector, Carson Block , is an entrepreneur who’s pract iced law and pioneered an industr y in China. Our team members are l ikewise veterans of China’s business t renches who s imilar ly understand how business is real ly conducted in China. Through thei r successes and struggles, they’ve developed the knowledge and contacts to nav igate China’s muddy waters .”—浑水公司的自我介绍
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Left Contractors in China
调查公司在华伙伴
Shor t Sel lers—hedge funds
卖空的对冲基金
Lawyers -律师行
Socia l Media—Tweeter, Seeking A lpha, etc
社交媒体传播—微博，投资论坛等
Wal l St reet Media —CNBC, BIT V, WSJ 华尔街媒体
Main St reet Media—CNN, FOX, etc 大众媒体
THE KILLER CHAIN狙杀链条
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Targets Time of attack Price before
attack
Price after
attack
Current
situation
Oriental paper 06/28/2010 16 4.45 1.99
RINO 11/10/2010 35 6.07 0.03 delisted
CCME 02/03/2011 28 11.52 0.02delisted
Sino-forest 06/02/2011 25.85 1.25 4.81
Spreadtrum 06/28/2011 30 12.55 22.70
Focus Media 11/21/2011 67 17.7 23.80
FSIN 04/10/2012 25 6.51 9.26
New oriental 07/18/2012 32.46 11.33 16.69
浑水公司战绩
SCORECARD FOR MUDDY WATER
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Due Diligence Cycle （近似竞争情报）
Planning and Direction—target choice
计划和方向确定—目标选择
Collection—Primary, secondary
情报搜集—一手情报源和二次情报源
Analysis—financial，competitive
情报分析—财务分析，竞争分析
Dissemination—media campaign
情报传播 - -媒体宣传活动
Feedback—Action—Shorting Selling
用户反馈—行动—卖空打击
HOW DID THEY DO IT? 运行模式
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Chinese firms listed in Nasdaq，Amex
中国在美上市企业为何成为目标？
Small to medium in size
中小规模，运行不规范，无危机心态，业务相对简单
Reverse acquisition
多数通过反向收购上市，没有通过ＩＰＯ的较严格审核
Information asymmetry
信息的严重不对称－－中美环境间，管理人员与股东间
Bubble in asset price/future growth expectation
资产和股价的严重泡沫化
Red Flags
问题信号—高管非正常离职，会计或审计公司非正常变更
TARGET CHOICE 目标选择
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The value of human intelligence
人力情报的宝贵价值
the onsite visit, phone calls, interviews, pictures, documents
现场调查，电话访谈，面谈，实地取证，重要文件证据的获取
The Team—project manager, industry expert, financial analyst, lawyer, tech support, logistic support, field investigator, etc.
调查团队—项目经理，业界专家，财务分析师，律师，技术支持，后勤支持，现场调查员
Secondary sources collection
IPO document, annual report, public announcement, website, press report
选定攻击对象后，浑水必对上市公司的各种公开资料做详细研读。这些资料包括招股说明书、年报、临时公告、官方网站、媒体报道。
COLLECTION 情报搜集
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没有任何公司或组织是在真空之中运作的，有交往就有信息产生 No
organization exists in vacuum； where there is transaction, there is
information.
情报的来源 INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
竞争对手 competitor
wholesaler
distributor
supplier
users
Media
Salesman
investor
Trade
show
network
Gov
Focal Firm
supplier
9
The power of insightful (or at least the signal of it) analysis
Compare and contrast a company’s registration documents, operation reports, financial reports and tax reports in China and the U.S., you may notice the discrepancies.
对比目标公司在中美两国公司注册，财务报表，税务报表，营运报表间的差别，可以发现其中的漏洞。
Can the disclosed information pass the logic test
上市公司披露信息的合理性分析，是否逻辑自洽。
Compare and contrast the result of site visit with disclosed information
对比实地调研的结果与公司对外披露信息
Check up the top management team and their related firms
对高管团队及关系人内部交易的追查
ANALYSIS 情报分析
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Media Campaign传媒战
In the social media era, where information is passed around
globally as quickly as someone can tweet it
在社交媒体时代，信息在全球范围的飞速传播
Communicate with other short seller before releasing the
report
报告发布前同其他做空机构的沟通
Publishing and disseminate report through multiple channels
多种渠道同时发布，力争最大影响。
Publish it at the right moment will gain the most publicity
报告发布时机的选择（如新东方报告在SEC调查消息后第二天发布）
DISSEMINATION情报传播
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Short Sellers 卖空者
Build up short position before the release and coordinate the
attack
Lawyer 律师行
Launch law suit against the accused company
Government agencies 政府监管机构
Initiate a formal investigation
Shareholder groups/investors 股东和投资者
Dump their stocks if they do not see a timely and convincing
response from the accused company
DECISION IMPACT/ACTION 行动
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1. 应WAB Investment 要求做尽职调查—due dil igence first
2. 与企业CFO面谈 , 约定到华访问—talk with CFO-set the visit date
3. 公司财务报表研究，初步发现问题—financial statement research
4. 现场考察，估算存货的价值，并且拍摄工厂照片和DV，请机械工程专家来评估机器设备的实际价值；还观察工厂门口车辆的数量和运载量（包括道路使用情况）来分析评估公司的实际业务量。Site visit, evaluate inventory, take pictures, expert examination, observe traffic and road
5. 联系公司的设备供应商，核实设备采购数据—check with suppliers
6. 核对公司的客户规模与采购量，发现矛盾 -check with customers
7. 参考其竞争对手的情况，核实其产值效益数据真伪 -check with competitors
8. 获取工商注册文件，确认关联人和关联企业 -obtain registration documents
9. 完成做空报告，多渠道发布—finish the short report and publish
10. 跟踪报道，多篇报告，争取最大影响—further reports
ORIENTAL PAPER 东方纸业案例
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实地考察报告：Site visit
厂房设备陈旧，工厂环境潮湿 outdated factory and equipment,
damp environment
ORIENTAL PAPER 东方纸业案例
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ORIENTAL PAPER 东方纸业案例
浑水通过电话沟通及客户官网披露的经营信息，逐一核对各个客户对东方纸业的实际采购量，最终判断出东方纸业虚增收入。虚增的方法其实很简单，即拟定假合同和开假发票，这也是国内上市公司造假的通用方法。Customer
Checkup
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ORIENTAL PAPER 东方纸业案例
东方纸业虚报库存和原料数量和价值，下面左图是公司报表中所列原料价值，右面两图为真实废纸堆。中间图上人物为浑水所请专家. Inventory checkup
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东方纸业股票走势图
ORIENTAL PAPER 东方纸业
18
浑水成立包括会计、法律、财务和制造业背景的10人调查团队奔赴五个城市，甚至还聘请四家律师事务所作为外部顾问，耗时两个月对嘉汉林业进行详细调查，阅读上万页文件，才出具研究报告。
浑水公司对中国国情的深入了解，对美国投资市场心态的把握和综合团队的全方位考察能力是它相对其他银行或投资基金常规尽职调查的优势。
“In order to conduct our research, we uti l ized a team of 10 persons who
dedicated most to al l of their t ime over two months to analyzing TRE. The
team included professionals who focus on China from the discipl ines of
accounting, law, finance, and manufacturing. Our team read over 10,000
pages of documents in Chinese per taining to the company. We deployed
professional investigators to five cit ies. We retained four law firms as
outside counsel to assist with our analysis. We are confident that we have
brought more expertise, t ime, and money to bear in analyzing TRE than has
any investor or bank – by a substantial margin .”—摘自浑水公司调查报告
SINO FOREST TRE 嘉汉林业
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CI is a powerful tool in hands of competent practitioners
竞争情报是市场上有力的攻防手段，是企业的核心能力
It is almost impossible to hide your skeleton now as a public firm
在专业竞争情报调查人员的多学科全方位长时段考察面前，上市企业很难掩盖自己的各种问题和弱点。
Get your story straight
自身管理运行的规范化，专业化。“勿恃敵之不來，恃吾有以待之；勿恃敵之不攻，恃吾有所不可攻也。”—孙子
Respond forcefully at earliest time possible
第一时间组织综合专业团队应对，费用昂贵，但远少于错误应对会造成的损失。
There is no easy way out不要存侥幸心理
Wrong response is worse than no response
错误的反应比没有反应更糟
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THIS CASE?
从案例中我们可以学到什么？
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Due Diligence business model
尽职调查/风险控制商业模式
Global Short business model
全球卖空商业模式
Computer security model
企业安全保护商业模式
CI AS A PROFIT CENTER
竞争情报作为利润中心
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Market expansion and retrenchment
市场的扩张和收缩
Implication for emerging market MNCs
新兴市场跨国企业的对策
The need for Robust CI as Forewarning, Crisis Management
and prevention
市场对预警，危机管理和预防的强烈需求与竞争情报的可能贡献
Thank! 谢谢
Qingjiu Tao, [email protected]
THIS IS JUST THE END OF BEGINNING
这只是开始的结束
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http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20091229/13007169552.shtml
http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/watch -the-video-edu/
http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/category/articles/
http://web.archive.org/web/20081018161140/http://www.growthequities.com/wab_about.html
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/697144 -megisto387/84833-muddy-waters-requires-a-leap-of-faith-they -dont-deserve
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/583323 -business-economics-analyst/80301-orient-paper-inc-onp-does-it-add-up-questions-for-orient-paper-s-investigators
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/583323 -business-economics-analyst/83417-another-bad-video-for-orient-paper-inc-onp-by-a-promoter-of-the-company
oriental paper site visit
RELATED MATERIALS 相关资料
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