Download - קיוטו ומונטריאול ומה שבינהן
- 1. , : [email protected] -
2. : : )7891 , 7991 ([email protected] - 3. - 08MESOSPHERE06STRATOSPHERE04 TROPOSPHER02EkmOzone 05 1 1 Partial0 0 5 Pressure0 0 ))b - [email protected] 4. ? ) ( , , " - [email protected] 5. "" - [email protected] 6. : : 30001.5 Ozone2500)Scale at Left)Reactive Chlorine Abundance ))Parts per Billion Ozone Abundance))Parts per Billion20001.0150010000.5500Reactive ChlorineAntarctic )Scale at Right) Polar Air0 0 63 6465 666768 69 70 71 72)Latitude )Degrees South - [email protected] 7. 7891, ". : . , . ) 2 (. - " ". [email protected] 8. Larger Ozone Losses Avoided Ozone-Damaging Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine ] No Protocol Abundance )parts per trillion) Montreal Protocol Copenhagen Amendments - Year - [email protected] 9. 000,02 Total 000,81 Melanoma Deaths 000,61Non-Melanoma Deaths 000,41Deaths Averted 000,21 000,01000,8000,6000,4000,2 0 0891 0002 0202 0402 0602 0802 0012Year - [email protected] 10. :. - /, , , . . . - /.- / .. - .. - . - [email protected] 11. : : -%51. - - %06 . )( . ) , / (. - [email protected] 12. - [email protected] 13. : , ,,2. " 4.) ( , "-0002.3. " - [email protected] 14. )( / 0853 / 00542 1991 / 0853 / 00542 5991 5862 / 57381 %52 9991 0971 / 05221 %05 1002 4701 / 0537%07 30020/ 0 - %[email protected] 15. ) ( )(ODP Tones 923 9891 9236991 312 %53 4002 52.28 %57 010233 %09 5102546.1) (%5.9902020%001 [email protected] - 0302 16. HCFCs ODP HCFC-141b 22 -HCFC Tones ))odp tones ))odp tones ((5.041 173 )8.04(318,1 )7.99( 4002)312) 5.28 103 )1.33( 898 )4.94(5002 00.361 )9.71 ( 5.085.731,1 )6.26 (60023.021776 )5.47 ( 338 )8.54 ( 7002 461 575 )36 ( 9381 )101(8002 - 52.28 [email protected] 0102 17. 1950-2002 : CFCs World CFC Production 1950-2002 Source: DuPont, Worldwatch estimates and Ozone Secretariat1400 Montreal Protocol Signed (1987)1200 First Ozone depletion theory published1000 (1974)Thousand Tons 800 600 400 20001950 1960 1970 19801990 2000 2010Year - [email protected] 18. - [email protected] 19. "" - [email protected] 20. 21. Increasing greenhouse Greenhouseheatgases trap more effect 22. NitrousCO2 (4CH) oxide(N2O)HFCsPFCsSulfur H2O hexafluoride (SF6) 23. : 7002 ,6002,4002,2002,3002,5002,89910002,0991,9991,5991,7991,100232 24. ? 25. - [email protected] 26. - [email protected] 27. 900272 : BP Statistical Review of World 28. 28 29. - ) , ( , , ) , ( , ), 92 30. 7991 -3COP 182 1 - %2.5 0991, 2102-8002 ) B ( 1 - ), , ,03 , " "( 31. / 099113 32. - [email protected] 33. - , - %09-52 0302-0002. 1.5-20C- 350-450 ppm33 34. , Total Primary Energy Supply Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 125 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 120 115Index 1990 = 100 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 34 35. )8002( " : 2102 %01 5202 %52 5102 %08 ...... 0502 051 01 5 " " green jobs - [email protected] 36. 1 ) 20C -(1.50C . 1 )0102/1/13( - 0202. 1, ) 0102/1/13( - 0202. ) ( . . : 03 $ 2102, 001 $ 0202 63 37. 7102 - 3102 -0202 - [email protected] 38. 6991 -1 Non Annex 4002 " )6991, 0002, 0102( CDM "83 39. 2025 302726 25 2000 CO2eq 21 212025 20 15 12.7121211.410 10 10 754 420" EU 39 : GHG reduction pathway in the UNFCCC process up to 2025, CNRS/LEPII-EPE )France) RIVM/MNP )Netherlands) ICCS-NTUA )Greece) CES-KUL )Belgium), 2003 . 40. % - BAU - 142MtCO 2 e 5002 061 BAU041 MtCO2e021001 +%001 08 06 -%03 04 02 - 00991 5002 0102 5102 0202 52020302 %41 : %42 ":04 %621 : %681 : 41. - BAU , " " % 0302-5002 6.5 1.5 1.4 0.2 6.1 " " % 0302-5002 4.12.1 8.0 4.0 0 14 42. , : )(price shocks - OECD 24 43. 5202 5202 5202 7002 6002 6002" %9 %79 %2 %61%5 %23 %61%23 %4" %2%6 %8 %8%6 %63%7 %63 %84% %11 %84 %1 34 7002 ", 7002 44. 0302 ,MtCO2e , - tCO2 e - 1.35.5 - 2.1 001 3.7 2.1 08 06 04 02 0 0 50151 02 52 03 53 045405 02- MtCO2 e 04- 06-5.1 08- 8.1 001- 9.3 021- 6.1 3.2 44 45. 8.5 10 abatement leverages 01 , 0302 2030 ,MtCO2e3.7CSP solar power 1 -))CST 5.5PV solar power 2 - 9.3 Efficiency improve vehicles3 ) 4 ) 4 1.3EE new buildings Efficient lightning 3.2 5 Retrofit buildings8.16 Fuel shift 6.1 7Biogas from landfills5.18 Electric vehicles 2.1 9 -%56 Wind turbine -03022.101 4.92 " 54 : 46. - %02 , 0202. 2By 2020, the government will make its utmost to reduce its CO .emissions by 20% compared to a business as usual scenario -" %71 - 5002 -EU %03-02 - 0991 ) ( %52 - 0991 %02 - 6002 %52-02 - 0991 %03-02 - 0991 %04-03 - 0991 %93-63 - 0202 - BAU %03 - BAU %62 - 0202 - BAU %42 " - %54 " 64 47. - 0202 - 02020202 - 052 %3109 MT BAU- 0202 - 053 60 MT - 52 " 526 - " 0.21 %02 - 4.3 %01 5.3 D " 9.81" )- (MT - 3 , 5.2 7.1 , , , - 2.7" 1.62" MT9.32 - BAU74 48. + )0102( - 84 49. Computer models 50. - [email protected] 51. ? , , : , , , , " - . ! : , : - [email protected] 52. 25 - [email protected] 53. 53
