dram market update – 2012 & beyondseminar.dramexchange.com/compuforum/2012/us... · 6/11/2012...

DRAM Team Memory & Storage Division

Jun. 7th, 2012

DRAM Market Update – 2012 & Beyond – The End of the Perfect Competitive Market–

完全競爭市場的終結

http://www.trendforce.com/

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 7 June 2012 |

• Marco Economy • 2012 DRAM Industry Outlook • Demand – PC (NB, Ultrabook, DT) & Mobile (Tablet and Smartphone)

• 5 Years Demand Landscape

Demand

• Changing Mix of Supply • Supply by Application • Companies’ Profitability and Market Share • New Market Cycle

Supply

Conclusion

Agenda


Source: DRAMeXchange, IMF, Jun. 2012

2012: 2nd Dip Unlikely but Slow Recovery WW GDP Shows High Correlation with DRAM Industry

Asia Financial Crisis

3.8% 4.1%

2.6% 3.6%

4.7%

2.4% 2.9% 3.7%

4.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.4%

2.8%

-0.6%

5.3% 3.9% 3.5% 4.1%

WW GDP Growth YoY

-50%

0%

50%

100%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Total DRAM Revenue & YoY Unit: M , USD

Revenue YoY Growth Revenue

Financial Crisis

0%

Dot Com Bubble

Minor Recession??


Source: IMF, DRAMeXchange, Jun. 2012

2011 2012E

WW

3.85% 3.53%

2011 2012E

EU

1.44% -0.32%

2011 2012E

JP

-0.75% 2.04%

2011 2012E

US

1.74% 2.11%

2011 2012E

Brazil

2.73% 3.03%

2011 2012E

China

9.24% 8.23%

2011 2012E

India

7.24% 6.86%

2011 2012E

Russia

4.30% 4.01%

2011 2012E

3.15% 2.65%

South Africa

■ 2011 GDP ■ 2012 GDP

However, EU and China present the most uncertainty, (unresolved EU debt and China’s economic slow-down).

Year of 2012

2012 – Market Gradually Improves in 2H Solid GDP Growth in US, JP and Other Emerging Countries


Source: IMF, DRAMeXchange, Jun. 2012

Year of 2012

US

2.1%

EU

2.02%

Russia

2.02%

Brazil

5.17%

WW

4.04% South Africa

5.75%

China

3.32% India

8.16%

JP

0%

The annual percentage of CPI (Consumer Price Index) is used as a measure of inflation. A high CPI may urge government to raise interest rate and tighten monetary.

However, Uncertainty Remains… CPI Represents Potential Risk of Inflation among Regions


2012: Healthier sufficiency (yet still oversupply), ASP (PC+non PC DRAM) drop slows (YoY ~35%) Future key watch points: (1) Supply: Status of DRAM capacity withdrawal; Elpida’s resolution of financial restructure (2) Demand: Stimulations in 2H’12 (Win8, Ultrabook, Intel’s Ivy Bridge & Romley)

Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun. 2012

2012 DRAM Industry Outlook More Rational Market, Revenue Improves Slightly

Recession -15.0%

30.4% 33.8%

7.4%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

DRAM Supply/Demand/Sales YoY Growth & Sufficiency

Sales Growth (YoY)

Supply Bit Growth (YoY)

Demand Bit Growth (YoY)

Sufficiency Ratio


SOC

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

64bit 2GB

Channel-0

64bit 2GB

Channel-1

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

SOC

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

256MX16

64bit 4GB

Channel-0

64bit 4GB

Channel-1

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

4GB to 8GB Upgrade

Segmentation is the Key for Memory Solutions Always Connected: LPDDR3x16/x32; however, x32 product is the only solution that Intel Haswell supports. Not Always Connected: DDR3LMx16 or DDR3Lx16

LPDDR3 x16 Simulation when Ultrabook Density Increases to 8GB

Potential risks of CMD loading and RLC when running 1600Mhz.


Ultrabook Memory Solution Unsettled DDR3L, DDR3M and LPDDR3 x16/x32 Are the Options


Tablet PC Smartphone Featurephone

High-end, Mainstream Segment

2012 Shipment (E)

76.2M (83.7%) 2012 Shipment (E)

467.5M (77.2%) 2012 Shipment (E)

529M (55%) Non-iPad: 8Gb → 16Gb LPDDR2 iPad: 4Gb → 8Gb LPDDR2

H: 8Gb LPDDR2, eMCP and discrete solution

NAND-based MCP 1+512

M: Various Offering, 4Gb LPDR1/ 8Gb LPDR2

Low-end Segment

2012 Shipment (E)

15M (16.3%) 2012 Shipment (E)

172.8M (22.8%) 2012 Shipment (E)

428M (45%) 4Gb → 6Gb LPDDR2 MCP 4+4 or 4+2

LPDDR1→LPDDR2 (2Q) NOR-based MCP 32Mb


2012 Demand Outlook – Mobile DRAM Smartphone Growth Continues at a Blazing Pace


AP33

MSM8X60

OMAP44X0

U8500

MSM7227A

MT6575

APQ8055

AP40

MSM8X74

OMAP64X0

SP30

MSM8X28

OMAP54X0

MT658X

MSM8X26

OMAP4XX0

MT6577


2012 2013

Note 1： □Quad □Dual □Single Note 2： ■LPDDR3 ■LPDDR2 ■LPDDR1

U9500

2013: Fast Transition in Mobile Market LPDDR2 & Dual-core Chips Dominate Market


6.7% 5.2%

7.5% 7.1% 10.0% 10.9%

5.8% 8.8%

0.3%

9.7%

13.4%

8.7%

0%

10%

20%

DRAM Demand, 2010~2012(E)


3,416 3,593 3,862 4,137 4,553

5,049 5,344 5,813 5,832

6,400

7,256 7,887

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F

OthersTotal PC demand

Unit: M, 1Gbequiv

3,416 3,593 3,862 4,137 4,553

5,049 5,344 5,813 5,832

6,400

7,256 7,887

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


Total DRAM demand

Unit: M, 1Gbequiv

1Q12 demand below expectation(weak PC build), oversupply continued. Market estimates demand will improve in 2H, representing stronger seasonality.

Smartphone Ultrabook Tablet PC

DRAM Demand QoQ Change, 2010~2012(E)

2012 DRAM Demand Status 1Q12 Below Seasonal, Demand Gradually Improves from 3Q



2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F

Server

Desktop

Notebook

Ultrabook

Tablet PC

Feature & Smartphone

Commodity DRAM Total Available Market Shrinking

Thin and light guarantees the popularity of adoption. Market will be driven by Mobile DRAM and low-power consumption DRAM.

In 2015, Ultrabook + Cellphone + Server will take majority of DRAM consumption.

5 Years DRAM Demand Landscape Everything is about Cloud Computing Trend



2012 Bit Growth 27% 2012 Bit Growth 51% 2012 Bit Growth 1% 2012 Bit Growth 34% 2012 Bit Growth 30%

2012(E) Production Mix by Output Chip

Samsung, benefitting from strong vertical integration, has highest non-PC contribution. Companies whose PC DRAM portion >50% have to reconsider product mix adjustment.

34%

23%

32%

7% 5%

42%

23%

16%

11%

9%

60%

10%

25%

3% 3%

51%

23%

5%

14%

6%

66%

5% 6%

21%

2%

Non-PC DRAM

The Changing Mix of Supply Faster Diversification, Better Profitability


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F

PC Server Mobile Consumer Graphics

2012: Supply Bit Growth of 30.5% (v.s. Demand Bit Growth of 33.8%) Server, Mobile PC, Graphic

2012 DRAM Output by Production

PC Segment 2011: 53% of total output 2012: 44% of total output

PC DRAM 2012 YoY Supply Bit Growth: 20.0%

Graphic/ Consumer

16% Mobile

22% Server

18% Server DRAM 2012 YoY Supply Bit Growth: 42.1%

Mobile DRAM 2012 YoY Supply Bit Growth: 67.5%

Consumer DRAM 2012 YoY Supply Bit Growth: 17.1%

Graphic DRAM 2012 YoY Supply Bit Growth: 27.9%


Supply Drivers of 2012: Server, Mobile Server and Mobile Take 40% of Total Supply Production


Mobile DRAM Revenue

1Q12 DRAM Operating Margin

(1) 15%

(2) -18%

(3) -68%

(4) -26%

Samsung’s leadership is unshakable, mainly benefitting from its complete product portfolio and strong Galaxy family sales.

30nm

40nm

50/60nm

2Q12 Mobile DRAM Node Breakdown


Mobile DRAM Revenue

Non-Mobile DRAM Revenue

1Q12 Mobile DRAM Market Share By Revenue

Samsung, 59.6%

Hynix, 18.9%

Elpida, 14.7%

Micron, 5.0%

Winners of PC DRAM Outperform Here, too Samsung is By Far the Strongest Leader in Mobile DRAM


Supply +

Suppliers’ Capex ↑ Full Utilization

Shortage

Buyers’ Double-booking Utilization Recovery

Oversupply

ASP ↓ Suppliers Start Cash-burn

Consolidation

PCs Lose Demand Momentum Mobile Devices Drive Consumption

Supply -

Utilization Cut Inventory Correction


The Broken Cycle, A New Battlefield Consolidation Currently Taking Place


2011: PC 68%, S 7%, G 3%, C 7%, M 14%

2011: PC 55%, S 22%, G 4%, C 15%, M 4%

Chip QTY %

PC 5,273 49%

Server 1,251 20%

Graphic 453 5%

Consumer 907 10%

Mobile 1,269 16%

Total 9,153 100%

Micron + Elpida will increase penetration of: Server: Utilizing Micron’s customer base Mobile: Micron’s NAND + Elpida’s Mobile DRAM is

competitive, will penetrate high-density MCP market.

Product Diversification Simulation after Integration


PC, 60%

Server, 10%

Graphics, 3%

Consumer, 3%

Mobile , 25%

Elpida

2012

PC, 51%

Server, 23%

Graphics, 6%

Consumer, 14%

Mobile , 5%

Micron

2012

A More Complete Product Offering Their Cooperation Makes Up What Insufficient Originally

Non-PC DRAM will account for more than 50% of 2012 output after integration.


DRAM ASP (Contract & Spot)

Sufficiency

Typically, sufficiency ratio is a leading indication of future ASP trend (negatively correlated). However, 1H12 ASP trend more strongly reflects supply uncertainty. In 2H, a better demand/supply balance will result in more solid ASP development.


1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12FDDR3 2Gb Contract 4.22 2.83 1.88 2.06 1.34 0.98 0.94 1.17 1.34 1.45DDR3 2Gb Spot 4.40 2.81 2.04 1.82 1.15 0.85 0.96 1.09 1.26 1.36

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

-10%

0%

10%

20%


De-coupling Trend of ASP & Sufficiency


DRAM Demand – stimulations in 2H, triggering stronger seasonality By 2012, cloud (server) computing (ultrabook/tablet PC/smartphone) represents majority of DRAM consumption. Ultrabook memory solution decided by product segmentation – DDR3LM, LPDDR3 both applicable. Dynamic changes in smartphone and tablet segments, low-end & cost competitive solutions gaining ground →

imposing ceiling on mobile DRAM portion of total BOM cost.

DRAM Supply – becoming oligopoly market Less price slashing behavior, representing a more rational market → stable price trend. In 2012, DRAM market still in oversupply, permanent withdrawal of some capacity necessary. Both economies of scale + product diversification are crucial for profitability.

DRAM Sufficiency & ASP 1Q → weakest quarter of 2012. 2H’12 ASP gradually move upward (assuming limited impact from China and EU). Suppliers should focus on value-added products: DDR3LM, LPDDR3, on-board memory and DDR4. Commodity & mobile DRAM price gap will narrow – mobile DRAM is becoming commoditized in terms of price. The faster DRAM consolidation occurs, the sooner DRAM ASP bottoms out

Key Take-away


Thank You DRAM team Ken Kuo [email protected] Avril Wu [email protected] Wilson Miao [email protected] Lavender Shih [email protected]

NAND Flash team Wayne Chen [email protected] Sean Yang [email protected] Alan Chen [email protected] Esther Lo [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]








dram market update – 2012 & beyondseminar.dramexchange.com/compuforum/2012/us... · 6/11/2012...

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