economic thinking economics as a social science the scientific method –observation, theory, and...
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Economic Thinking
• Economics as a social Science• The scientific method
– Observation, Theory, and Testing– Assumptions and ceteris paribus– Avoiding flaws in logical thinking
• Ergo hoc post proper hoc• Fallacy of Composition/Division
• Microeconomics vs. Macroeconomics
Economics Models
• The art of making: simple and effective
• Example: circular flow– overall economy, role of economic agents,
output and income, product and factor markets
• Example: production possibilities frontier (PPF) -efficiency, tradeoffs, opportunity costs,
economic growth, law of increasing costs
Economics and Economists
• Positive versus normative
• Avoiding unintended consequences
• Scientist, advisor and citizen
• Scientific judgment, values, perception versus reality
The Power of Trade
• Voluntary versus involuntary exchange
• An intuitive approach to gains in trade
• Using an economic model to demonstrate the gains from trade
Voluntary Exchange
• All parties to a voluntary exchange must be made better off
• Allow for specialization and division of labor
• Increase interdependence
• Promote cooperation rather than conflict
An intuitive Approach to Gains From Trade
• Self-sufficiency – Pros: independence– Cons: loss of efficiency, variety in consumption
and production
• Trade with Yakima?
• Trade with other states?
• Trade with other nations?
Gains from Trade: An Economic Model
• Good model building: prove the point and make it simple
• Assumptions = things held true during the analysis = simplification
• Assumptions can be changed later to explore their implications
The Model
• Assumptions:– Two individuals – rancher and a farmer– Two goods – meat and potatoes– Each work eight hours a day– Farmer takes 60min/oz meat and 15min/oz
potatoes– Rancher takes 20min/oz of meat and 10min/oz
of potatoes
• Absolute advantage– Rancher than farmer is more efficient and producing both meat and
potatoes
• Comparative advantage– The farmer is comparatively better at producing potatoes than the
rancher.
• Comparative advantage and opportunity cost– The person with the lower opportunity cost has a comparative
advantage– Someone always has a comparative advantage in the production of
a least one thing
PPF and Production in a Simple Economy
• How much can be produced?
• Need to know:– Total time divided by time/output = total
output, or– output/time multiplied by total time = total
output
Table 1 The Production Opportunities of the Farmer and Rancher
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Farmer (8 hours = 480/min)/ (60 min/oz of meat) = 8 oz of meat
Rancher (480min/20min/oz of meat)=24 oz of meat
Figure 1 The Production Possibilities Curve
Potatoes (ounces)
4
16
8
32
A
0
Meat (ounces)
(a) The Farmer’ s Production Possibilities Frontier
If there is no trade, the farmer chooses this production and consumption.
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
Figure 1 The Production Possibilities Curve
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
Potatoes (ounces)
12
24
B
0
Meat (ounces)
(b) The Rancher ’s Production Possibilities Frontier
48
24
If there is no trade, the rancher chooses this production and consumption.
Slope of the PPF• In math, slope = Δy/Δx but in this case meat is on
the y-axis and potatoes are on the x-axis, so it become ΔM/ΔP
• E.g. Rancher ΔM/ΔP = -24/48 =-1/2 , but it is help to think of this as -1/2/1. Why? +1P → -½ M
• E.g. Farmer ΔM/ΔP =- 8/32 =-1/4 , but it is help to think of this as 1/4/1. Why? +1P → -1/4 M
• To get 1 P the rancher gives up 1/2M and the farmer gives up 1/4M
• Slope = opportunity cost (an example of making math meaningful to real world situations)
• Reverse directions– Rancher to get 1M → -2P– Farmer to get 1M → -4P
• Conclusions:– Rancher has a comparative advantage in producing meat (1M
costs 2P or 1P costs 1/2M)– Farmer has a comparative advantage in producing potatoes
(1P costs 1/4M or 1M costs 4P)
• The rancher should specialize in producing meat and the farmer should specialization in producing potatoes.
Gains to Trade• Marginal versus Complete Approach• Marginal adjustment
– Farmer -1M → +4P– Rancher +1M → -2P– Total 0M +2P, or– Rancher -1P → +1/2M– Farmer +1P → -1/4M– Total 0P +1/4M
• Either way specializing and trading means either more meat or potatoes
The Total Approach
• Mankiw explains gains a bit differently and perhaps in a more complicated way– Farmer only produces potatoes and rancher
produces a combination of meat and potatoes– Trade takes place with equal amounts for each– New totals lie outside the old PPF and
represents a point on a consumption possibilities frontier
– Let’s see how he does it….
Table 2 The Gains from Trade: A Summary
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Figure 2 How Trade Expands the Set of Consumption Opportunities
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Potatoes (ounces)
12
24
13
27
B
0
Meat (ounces)
(b) The Rancher’s Production and Consumption
48
24
12
18
B*
Rancher's consumption with trade
Rancher's production with trade
Rancher's production and consumption without trade
Figure 2 How Trade Expands the Set of Consumption Opportunities
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
Potatoes (ounces)
4
16
5
17
8
32
A
A*
0
Meat (ounces)
(a) The Farmer’ s Production and Consumption
Farmer's production and consumption without trade
Farmer's consumption with trade
Farmer's production with trade
Distribution of Gains to Trade
• Voluntary exchange results in gains to trade, but who gets the gains?
• Positive analysis = gains exist so efficiency improvements can occur
• Normative analysis = who should get the gains• Normative analysis involves value judgments and
therefore must be made by others
History of Trade
• Tribal to feudal times• Adam Smith (1776) and David Ricardo (1817)• The costs of not trading (e.g. lamb example)• Distribution impacts: consumers win but some
producers and workers lose• The cost of protectionism• http://www.dallasfed.org/fed/annual/2002/ar02f.html• http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=1059489