Shigemoto Kajihara

Director-General, Global Environment Bureau,

Ministry of the Environment

28th January, 2015Climate change seminar

Outcome of COP20 and Outlook for COP21

1. Background

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(℃)

Highest emissions scenario,

2.6～4.8℃ rise

scenario with successful climate mitigation ,

0.3～1.7℃ rise

Figure. Global average surface temperature change(relative to 1986-2005) （AR5 SYR Fig.6 sdited）

Increase in temperature by the end of the 21st century, is likely to be:+2.6-4.8 degrees if additional efforts to constrain emissions are not taken +0.3-1.7 degrees if stringent efforts to constrain emissions are taken

Substantial cuts in GHG emissions over the next few decades is crucial to substantially reduce climate risks in the latter decades of the 21st century and beyond.

Mitigation pathways likely to maintain warming below 2 degrees①40% to 70% emissions

reductions by 2050 compared to 2010

②emissions levels near zero or below in 2100

Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)5th Assessment Report (2014)

Climate Change Science

中国

米国

EU27か国

その他

Source: by MOEJ based on the data of IEA「CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014」「World Energy Outlook (2013 Edition)」

China and the US together emit over 40% of global CO2 emissions. Future emissions of developing countries is expected to increase substantially,

while developed countries’ emissions is expected to increase slightly.

1990

21 billion tons

2012（Current） 2030（Projection）

31.7 billion tons 36.5 billion tons

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Global CO2 Emissions

China,

10.9%

US23.2%

EU27 ,

19.3%

India2.8%

Russia10.4%

Japan5.1%

Brazil0.9%

Others27.5% China,

26.0%

US , 16.0%

EU2711.0%

India6.2%

Russia5.2%

Japan3.9%

Brazil1.4%

Others30.3%

China28.1%

US12.9%

India9.1%

EU287.4%Russia

4.8%

Japan2.7%

Brazil1.8%

Others33.2%

2. Outlook for COP21

Under the Convention Applicable to all Parties a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force

COP17 Durban agreement

• How to reflect the principle of CBDR • How to realize substantial reduction through “nationally-determined” commitments• How to treat adaptation• How to treat finance, technology, capacity building• Mechanism for transparency • Legal form of agreement：protocol or other form

Homework for negotiations in 2015

Parties communicate intended nationally-determined contributions well in advance of agreement

Address in a balanced manner mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity-building, and transparency of action and support

Determination to strengthen adaptation action

Decisions at COP19 (Warsaw) and COP20 (Lima)

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Remaining Issues for the 2015 Agreement

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“Mitigation” and “Transparency” in the 2015 AgreementHow can an “effective agreement” towards achieving substantial reduction be realized?

Transparency is key

Need for accounting rules on mitigation commitments, including on the land sector and market mechanisms.

Cycle of communication→ formalization→implementation of (I)NDCs is important.

Japan’s views (submission to the UNFCCC in October 2014)(I)NDC on mitigation:■Parties should be obliged to

1.Submit (I)NDCs on mitigation

2.Take measures aiming to achieve their NDCs

3.Be reviewed on the implementation of their NDCs

■Accounting rules on the land sector and market mechanisms could affect Parties’ NDCs. A work plan to develop

them should be launched at COP21.

■Cycle of (I)NDCs: Japan favors a 10-year cycle, ending the first cycle in 2030. A common cycle would be ideal.

Transparency:

■Need a single, common, effective, efficient, and facilitative review process applicable to all, built on the

experiences and lessons learned from existing measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV)schemes.

■Can be conducted in the following manner, for example:

-Parties submit a regular report

-Interested actors can submit questions or opinions on the report

-Parties submit their responses on the UNFCCC website

-Hold review sessions. Should make full use of expertise of international organizations.

■Necessary work towards development of details of the ex-post review process should be recognized at COP21.

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ＣＯＰ20

ＣＯＰ21

Dec. 2015(Paris,

France)

Parties communicate their intended nationally-determined contributions well in advance of COP21(by the first quarter of 2015 if ready to do so)

(COP19 decision)

Adopt new agreement

Negotiation meeting

Geneva (2/8-13)

Make negotiating text available before

May 2015 (COP18 decision)

Each others’ INDCs are available for reference

while conducting negotiations

Negotiation meeting (autumn)

Negotiation meeting

Bonn（6/1～11）

Publish INDCs on the UNFCCC website

Prepare by 1 November 2015 a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the INDCS by Parties

(COP20 decision)

Discussions at other informal meetings during this time

Schedule towards COP21

Dec. 2014（Lima, Peru）

(COP20 decision)

3. National Policies in Japan

Basic Concept of JCM

JAPANHost

CountryLeading low carbon technologies,

etc, and implementation of mitigation actions

Facilitating diffusion of leading low carbon technologies, products, systems, services, and infrastructure as well as implementation of mitigation actions, and contributing to sustainable development of developing countries.

Appropriately evaluating contributions from Japan to GHG emission reductions or removals in a quantitative manner, by applying measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) methodologies, and use them to achieve Japan’s emission reduction target.

Contributing to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC by facilitating global actions for GHG emission reductions or removals, complementing the CDM.

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MRV

JCMProjects

GHG emission reductions/

removals

MRV Methodologieswill be developed

by the Joint Committee

Used to achieve Japan’s emission reduction target

Credits

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First JCM project has been registered at 3rd Joint Committee between Indonesia and Japan on Oct.2014 (Project title: Energy saving for air-conditioning and process cooling at textile factory)

Countries with which Japan has signed on bilateral document(as of Jan.2015)

Mongolia Jan. 8, 2013（Ulaanbaatar）

BangladeshMar. 19, 2013(Dhaka)

EthiopiaMay 27, 2013(Addis Ababa)

Kenya Jun. 12,2013 (Nairobi)

MaldivesJun. 29, 2013(Okinawa)

Viet Nam Jul. 2, 2013 (Hanoi)

Japan has held consultations for the JCM with developing countries since 2011 and signed the bilateral document for the JCM with Mongolia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Maldives, Viet Nam, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Costa Rica, Palau, Cambodia and Mexico.

Lao PDR Aug. 7, 2013(Vientiane)

Indonesia Aug. 26, 2013(Jakarta)

Costa Rica Dec. 9, 2013(Tokyo)

Palau Jan. 13, 2014(Ngerulmud)

CambodiaApr. 11, 2014(Phnom Penh)

MexicoJul. 25, 2014(Mexico City)

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According to Lima call for climate action adopted at COP20, market mechanisms can be included in intended nationally determined contributions.

JCM High-level Roundtable was held, and a Joint Statement was released.

JCM High-level Roundtable on 10 Dec.

JCM High-level Roundtable and other side events at COP20

• welcomed the development of the JCM• shared their will to make progress in the implementation • confirmed their intention to continuously contribute to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by sharing experiences gained through the implementation of the JCM

MongoliaUpgrading and Installation of Centralized

Control System of High-Efficiency Heat Only Boiler (HOB)

IndonesiaEnergy Saving for Air-Conditioning and Process

Cooling at Textile Factory (in Batang city)Energy Savings at Convenience StoresEnergy Efficient Refrigerants to Cold Chain IndustryEnergy Saving by Double Bundle-Type Heat PumpEnergy Saving for Air-Conditioning and Process

Cooling at Textile Factory (in West Jaav province & Bateng province)

Power Generation by Waste Heat Recovery in Cement Industry

Solar Power Hybrid System Installation to Existing Base Transceiver Stations in Off-grid Area

Energy Saving through Introduction of Regenerative Burners to the Aluminum Holding Furnace of the Automotive Components Manufacturer

Energy Saving for Textile Factory Facility Cooling by High Efficiency Centrifugal Chiller

Viet NamAnaerobic Digestion of

Organic Waste for Biogas Utilization at Market

Eco-driving by Utilizing Digital TachographSystem

PalauSmall scale solar power plants for commercial

facilities in island states

Selected projects in FY2013 Selected projects in FY2014

MaldivesSolar Power on Rooftop of

School Building Project

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JCM Model Projects by MOEJ in FY2013, 2014 (as of Jan.2015)

BangladeshEnergy Saving for Air-

Conditioning and Facility Cooling at Textile Factory by High Efficiency Centrifugal Chiller

Consideration of INDCs

The COP19 decision (November 2013) invited all Parties to communicate their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions well in advance of COP21 (by the first quarter of 2015 by those parties ready to do so).

Japan will deepen its consideration to reach a conclusion on our intended contributions as early as possible, taking into account COP decisions, moves of other countries, discussions on the new framework, and domestic review of the energy policy and energy mix.

The Joint Experts‘ Meeting of the Central Environment Council and the Industrial Structure Council has been launched in October 2014. Consideration towards communication of Japan’s INDC has been taking place at the meetings, which has been held 4 times.

Past Meetings of the Joint Experts' Meeting of the Central Environment Council and the Industrial Structure Council

■1st meeting24th October 2014

＜Agenda＞・Current state of national

climate change countermeasures and international negotiations ･Current state of national energy policy

■2nd meeting12th November 2014

＜Agenda＞・ The Synthesis Report of the

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

・Countermeasures for GHGs from non-energy sources

・Keidanren's Commitment to a Low Carbon Society

■3rd meeting5th December 2014

＜Agenda＞・ Measures concerning

energy demand(energy efficiency measures)

・National campaign

■4th meeting23rd January 2015

＜Agenda＞・Measures concerning

energy supply

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Establish “Expert Committee on Climate Change Impact Assessment” at 114th

Global Environmental Subcommittee, Central Environmental Council (2 July 2013)

Summarize climate change impacts, risk assessment and future issues(around Feb.-Mar. 2015)

Develop National adaptation plan as a government-wide integrated effort (summer, 2015) ＊Regular review

• Further detailed projection of climate change in Japan to monitor extreme events • Sort type of adaptations into 7 fields, 30 major items and 56 minor items• Consideration on the present situation and the projected impact items by item.• Assessment on “Significance”, “Urgency” and “Confidence level”.

There is a need to promote adaptation planning, as there are risks of impacts including various changes in the climate such as temperature rise, changes in precipitation, and extreme events as well as ocean acidification, even if the 2 degree goal is achieved.

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Steps towards National Adaptation Plan

Thank you for your attention!