Public Opinion

Chapter 11

In this discussion we will learn about

• The role of public opinion in a democracy

• How public opinion can be measured

• Where our opinions come from

• What our opinions are: do we think like the “ideal citizen”?

• The relationship of citizenship to public opinion

The role of public opinionin a democracy

Why public opinion ought to matter:

The government’s legitimacy rests on the idea that government exists to serve the interests of its citizens.

Why public opinion does matter:Politicians act as though they believe the public is keeping tabs on them.

Measuring and tracking public opinion

• Informal measures of public opinion

– E.g., personal contacts (snowball sampling), mail from citizens• Does not yield accurate and reliable results in survey

research.

– Allows politicians to pick up issues that could be missed in polls

– Likely to have a sample bias• Where one group of people or one opinion is over

represented.

Measuring and tracking public opinion, cont’d.

• Development of modern public opinion polls

– Straw polls (polls with non-binding results to assess attitudes and opinions, and to see if there is enough support for an idea)

– Literary Digest and the 1936 presidential election (attempt to predict the winner of the election between Landon and Roosevelt with a non-random sample. Literary Digest predicted Landon by 14%)

– The 1948 presidential election (mistake by Gallup)

1936 - President Roosevelt was re-elected with 61% of the vote. Gallup, using random sampling, predicted aRoosevelt victory with 54% of the vote. The Literary Digest predicted Roosevelt would lose badly to the Republicannominee, Alf Landon. The Literary Digest predominately sampled people with phones.

The 1936 Presidential Election

• Gallup used quota sampling and stopped polling a week before the election.

• Truman won by 3.5%

So What is a Sample?

• The entire universe of possible data is called the Population

• A subset of the population is called the Sample

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Main Types of Sampling

• Simple Random Samples: Each element has the same chance of selection

• Stratified Random Samples: Divide the population into groups of some sort (gender, race, income, many others), and sample from each stratum– i.e. draw from a group that is

predominately male or draw from a group that is predominately female 10

Sample Size

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• How do you know how large your sample should be?

• Desired accuracy: sampling error• Typically, the larger your sample, the lower your

error• However, the larger your sample, the more

expensive

• Most of the time in social science research, want to be able to say with 95% certainly, so can put up with about a 5% (.05) error

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Sampling Size Table(also depends on filters)

10010.04005.0

1109.54944.5

1239.06254.0

1388.58163.5

1568.01,1003.0

1787.51,6002.5

2047.02,5002.0

2776.04,5001.5

3305.510,0001.0

Sample SizeSampling ErrorSample SizeSampling Error

On-line sample calculators

• http://www.ezsurvey.com/samplesize.html

Why is Probability Important?

A sample must contain essentially the same variations that exist in the population

Representativeness: You want all members of the population to have an equal chance of being selected in the sample

A truly random sample is typically a representative sample

Nonrepresentativeness: units in sample are not typical of the larger population of interest. Potential types:BiasError

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Measuring and tracking public opinion

• Importance of asking the right question

– Respondents should be asked things they know and have thought about.

– Questions should not be ambiguous.

– Questions should not be loaded.

– The problem of “push polling”

Beware of push polls

• A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as a poll. Push polling has been condemned by the American Association of Political Consultants, and is illegal in New Hampshire.

Full push poll

Push poll and poorly written questions

• An example from George W’s push poll against John McCain:– “Would you be more or less likely to support John McCain if

you knew he had fathered an illegitimate child who was black?"

• Question that is ambiguous because it uses a double negative:– Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi

extermination of Jews never happened?

• Better question– Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews

never happened, or do you feel certain that it happened?

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Real World Example Scientific Poll. tab i2 m2rc, co chi2

safe | Post-Dispatchstreets | don't read during week everyday | Total

yes | 910 424 439 | 1773 | 70.16 78.23 78.96 | 74.03

no | 356 109 104 | 569 | 27.45 20.11 18.71 | 23.76

don’tknow| 27 8 13 | 48 | 2.08 1.48 2.34 | 2.00

refused | 4 1 0 | 5 | 0.31 0.18 0.00 | 0.21

Total | 1297 542 556 | 2395 | 100.00 100.00 100.00 | 100.00

Pearson chi2(6) = 25.0741 Pr = 0.000

Column %,Read across

IndependentDependent

Measuring and trackingpublic opinion, cont’d.

• How accurate are scientific polls?– Generally can pick the winner of the election

– Not correct to the percentage point because of margin of error

– More accurate the closer one gets to the election, and the more accurate the larger the sample size• Problem: survey results are a “snap-shot in time” and

opinions are fluid.

What influences our opinions about politics?

• Family• Schools and education• Groups

– The spiral of silence– The process by which a majority

opinion becomes exaggerated because minorities do not feel comfortable speaking out in opposition

• Political and social events• Tip O’Neill “all politics is local”

Sources of division in public opinion

• Self-interest– Focus on self vs. focus on community– Self (more likely to be Adam Smith Republicans)

• Education – As education increases, so does the likelihood that one

will vote Democrat (holding constant income)• Age

– Although changing, the older one is the more they are likely to be a Republican; political generations

• Sex (The gender gap)– Women are more like to support the Democratic party

than men.

The Gender Gap

More “Gaps”

Sources of division inpublic opinion, cont’d.

• The Marriage Gap– Married people are more likely to say they are

conservative than non-married or “partnered” people.

• Race and ethnicity – With the exception of the Cuba population in Florida,

minorities are more likely to support the Democratic party than non-minorities.

• Religion– Protestants (Republican leaning)– Non-Religious (Democratic leaning)– Catholic (Middle of the road)

Sources of division in public opinion, cont’d.

Geographical region – South more likely

to be Republican leaning (after realignment) than non-Southern states.

The citizens and

public opinion • Shortcuts to political knowledge

– On-line processing• the ability to receive and evaluate

information as events happen, allowing us to remember our evaluation even if we have forgotten the specific events that caused it

- Two-step flow of information• the process by which citizens take their political cues from more

well-informed opinion leaders

- Opinion leaders (family tradition)- Looks and who you would like to have a beer with• The irrational electorateRational ignorance: the state of being uninformed about

politics because of the cost in time and energy

Fun with Polls

• http://www.pollingreport.com/• Los Angels Time Poll (non-network fund

ed)• Gallup• The Pew Research Center for People an

d the Press

• National Election Study (U of Michigan)