2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Hur kan framtidens

hållbara fordon se ut,

och vad formar dem?

Transportforum 2011-01-13

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Anders GrauersSwedish Hybrid Center

Else-Marie MalmekMalmeken AB/SAFER

Vehicle and Traffic Safety Centre

FFI project

Fordonsstrategisk Forskning och Innovation

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Var står vi?

Intryck av debatten hittills:

Vet vad som behöver göras – måste samarbeta för att lyckas

Men:

• Många radikalt olika lösningar är möjliga.

Valet får stora konsekvenser utanför transportsystemet.

• Vi saknar drivkrafterna som skall ta oss till målet.

• Det är inte bara transportsektorn som kommer ändras!

Hela samhället ändras minst lika mycket.

• Samlad analys av teknik och samhällsfaktorer krävs.

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Goal for SEVS vehicles

Explore state-of-the-art vehicles for 2030:

• Shall build on long term sustainable solutions.

• Fossil fuel free.

• Large energy reduction (~80%)

• Large reduction of fatalities and injuries (~80%)

However, not dominating the market in 2030!

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Energy reduction

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Energy efficiency examples

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Increased Safety

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Several types of solutions

• Safer vehicles

• Safer roads

• Safer drivers

• Communication and semi automatic vehicle control

• Reduced transportation

Attractive safety solutions must be balanced with

Functionality, Cost, Energy, ...

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

2) Safety results

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Aim is to show potential and possible solutions

- not to predict future energy consumption or safety.

− Values based on experts estimates

− Research is required to realize the potentials

Must understand driving forces to know what is feasible.

(comment on previous slides)

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Feasibility of

different vehicle concepts

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

SEVS Vehicle concepts

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Feasibility

Vehicle concepts are a tool to explore different solutions:

– Show vehicle level effects of solutions

– Stimulate reflection from user perspective

– Several vehicles prevent too narrow perspective

Not about right or wrong -

- About different balance between requirements

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Feasibility

• Incentives, taxes, legal requirements

• Resource use

• Energy supply

• Competing and complementing transport

• City planning

• Business models

• Transport need and

user preferences

Not sufficient that a vehicle is sustainable.

Cost-benefit analysis in a wide sense

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Uncertain prerequisites

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Electric cars:

CO2 emissions from

electricity production.

Same vehicle

+ Different futures

= Different results

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Vehicle concepts

Similar transport need

+ Different prerequisites

= Different vehicles

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Examples of vehicle concepts

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

City bus

The super flexible and efficient public

transportation of tomorrow!

Modular, emission free and quiet.

ECO POLITICAL

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Top of the line of future long distance vehicles

INCREMENTAL DEVELOPMENT

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Lean-E

ECO INDIVIDUAL

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Summary

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Some thoughts on driving forces– Many forces – of completely different types!

– Not enough with a good solution – the “best” wins.

– Cost minimization not the goal!

Customer determine the value of different solutions.

We lack proper market forces to reach our goals!

Industry cannot be blamed for not succeeding.

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010

Slutsatser• Lösningar för hållbart transportsystem finns,

men ligger inte bara i fordon och transportsystemet.

• Vi saknar drivkrafter som tar oss dit!

• Samhället kommer ändras mycket – vad är rätt lösning då?

Vi behöver ny forskning med helhetssyn: Från teknik till samhälle - beskriva de vitt skilda drivkrafterna

Först när vi kan beskriva drivkrafterna

kan vi välja en trovärdig vision som kan genomföras.

2010-06-04

© SEVS 2010