thesis_dimas
DESCRIPTION
Η τεχνολογία άντλησης/ταμίευσης αποτελεί μια τεχνολογία με διαπιστωμένα υψηλή αποδοτικότητα που προσφέρει τη δυνατότητα ρύθμισης του ενεργειακού ισοζυγίου μέσω της αποθήκευσης ενέργειας σε μεγάλη κλίμακα. Η αποθήκευση ενέργειας πραγματοποιείται μέσω της άντλησης νερού σε ταμιευτήρες που βρίσκονται σε υψηλότερο υψόμετρο αξιοποιώντας ενδεχόμενη περίσσεια στην παραγωγή (όπως για παράδειγμα την περίσσεια νυχτερινής παραγωγής λόγω της μειωμένης ζήτησης). Το νερό αυτό στη συνέχεια χρησιμοποιείται για την παραγωγή υδροηλεκτρικής ενέργειας με στόχο την κάλυψη αιχμών της ζήτησης. Η περίσσεια αυτή μπορεί να ληφθεί από άλλες ανανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας, οι οποίες μπορούν να ενσωματωθούν σε ένα ενιαίο σύστημα υδροηλεκτρικών έργων-άλλων ΑΠΕ ώστε να σχηματίσουν αυτόνομα υβριδικά συστήματα ανανεώσιμης ενέργειας. Ο βέλτιστος σχεδιασμός και η διαχείριση αυτών των συστημάτων απαιτεί μια ολιστική προσέγγιση όπου θα αναπαρίσταται πιστά η αβεβαιότητα. Στα πλαίσια της εργασίας προτείνεται ένα μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο βασισμένο στη στοχαστική προσομοίωση και τη βελτιστοποίηση. Το πλαίσιο αυτό εξετάζεται σε ένα ήδη υπάρχον υδροσύστημα του ελληνικού χώρου (υδροσύστημα Αλιάκμονα), θεωρώντας συνδυασμένη λειτουργία με ένα υποθετικό αιολικό πάρκο. Για το σύνολο του συστήματος αναζητούμε το βέλτιστο σχεδιασμό ώστε να εξασφαλίσουμε την πλέον αποδοτική λειτουργία του ευρύτερου πλαισίου.TRANSCRIPT
-
&
- :
: ,
, 2013
-
- :
: ,
, 2013
&
-
(CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)
, 2013, 2014 (2 )
-
[i]
.
.
. , 11
-
[ii]
-
[iii]
,
.
,
,
.
.
.
( )
. -
.
,
.
, .
.
,
. 2
.
,
, , ,
, , , , .
( ) www.mqn.gr
.
, :
, ,
.
2013, 2014
-
[iv]
..................................................................................................................................................... iii
.................................................................................................................................................... iv
(Abstract) ...................................................................................................................................... ix
1. ....................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. ........................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. ..................................................................................................................... 1
1.3. ....................................................................................................... 1
1.3. ...................................................................................................................... 2
2. : .................... 3
2.1. ......................................................................................................... 3
2.1.1. ................................................................................................... 3
2.1.2. ..................................................... 5
2.2. : , -
............................................................................................................................................ 7
2.2.1.
..................................................................................................................................................................... 7
2.2.2. ................................................................................ 7
2.2.3. ............................................................................. 8
2.2.4. ................................................................................ 10
2.2.5. & ..................................................................................... 11
2.2.6. : ........ 15
2.3. :
.................................................................................................................................................. 15
2.3.1. ......................................... 15
2.3.2.
................................................................................................................. 17
2.4. /: .................................................. 18
2.4.1. ............................................................................................. 18
2.4.2. ................... 19
2.5. .......................................... 20
2.5.1. ................................................................................................................... 20
2.5.2. ................................................................. 21
-
[v]
2.5.3. ............................................ 22
3. : ,
, . ......................................................................................................................... 23
3.1. ...................................... 23
3.2. ....................................................................... 25
3.3. :
........................................................................................................................ 26
3.4. : 28
3.4.1. ....................................................................... 28
3.4.2. ........................................................................................... 28
3.4.3. ......................................................... 29
3.4.4. / ............................. 30
3.5. .
................................................................................................................................................... 32
3.5.1. .... 32
3.5.2. ...................................... 35
3.6.
-: --
........................................................................................................................................... 40
3.6.1. ...... 40
3.6.2. .................................................... 40
3.6.3. :
, -
................................................................................................................................................. 45
3.7. .. 47
4. ........................ 48
4.1. : .................................................................................... 48
4.2. .................................................................................................................... 49
4.3. ................................................................................. 50
4.3.1. ................................................................................................................ 50
4.3.2. ...................................................................... 50
4.3.3. ......................................................................................................... 50
4.3.4. ....................................................................................................... 52
4.3.5. ...................................................................................................................... 52
4.3.6. ............................................................. 52
-
[vi]
4.4. : ................... 53
4.4.1. ............................................................................................... 55
4.4.2. ..................................................................................................... 56
4.4.3. ................................................................................................ 58
4.4.4. . .......................... 59
4.4.5. ............................................... 59
4.4. : ........................... 62
4.4.1. .............................................................................................................................. 62
4.4.2. ........................................................................................................................ 63
5. :
................................................................................................................................. 69
5.1. ....................................................................................................................... 69
5.2. Hurst-Kolmogorov............................................................................................................ 71
5.3. ............................................................................................... 73
5.3.1. AR(1) .............................................................................................................................. 74
5.3.2. ....................................................................................................... 74
5.4. ............................................................................................................... 76
5.5. .......................................................................................................... 79
5.5.1. .................................................................................................................... 79
5.5.2. : ....... 82
5.5.3. To .............................................................................................. 85
5.5.4. ...................................................................................................... 86
5.5.5. ................................................................................................... 87
5.5.6. ............................................................. 89
5.6. ........................................................ 91
5.7. ....................................................... 92
5.8. ......................................................................................................................... 95
5.9. .............. 98
5.9.1. ............................................................................................... 98
5.9.2.
......................................................................................................................................... 99
5.9.3. .................. 100
5.9.4. ........................................................................................... 101
5.10. ............. 101
-
[vii]
5.11. ..................................................................... 102
5.12. .......................................................................................... 106
5.13. ............................... 106
5.14. ......................................... 109
5.15. .................................................................. 111
5.15.1. 1: .......................................................................... 111
5.15.2. 2: - /Sum of Generated Firm
Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 114
5.15.3. 2: - /Total Generated Firm
Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 116
5.15.4. 2-3 ....................................................................................................... 118
5.15.5. 4: /Total Generated Firm
Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 120
5.16. ................... 123
5.16.1. 1-4 .................................................................................................... 123
5.16.2. 3-4 .................................................................................................... 125
5.16.3. 1 ........................................................................................... 127
5.16.4. 2 ........................................................................................... 128
5.16.5. 3 ........................................................................................... 129
5.16.6. 4 ........................................................................................... 130
5.17. ...................................... 131
6. :
............................................................................................................................................. 132
6.1. .................................................................................................... 132
6.2. .............................................................................. 134
6.3. ............................................................. 138
6.4. ........................ 139
6.5. : Bartlett-Lewis ............ 140
6.5. .................................. 145
6.6. ............................................................ 152
6.7. ....................................................... 157
7. :
....................................................................................................................................................... 161
7.1. ....................................................................... 161
7.2. - ................................. 164
-
[viii]
7.3. : ,
..................................................................................................................................................................... 169
8. & ................................. 179
8.1. ..................................................... 179
8.2. ......... 180
8.3. ......................... 181
8.4. :
.......................................................................................................................................... 181
......................................................................................................................... 183
................................................................................................................................................... 188
/ ........................................................... 188
................................................................................................................................................... 189
........................................................................................................................................................ 190
.................................................................................................................................................... 191
............................................................................................ 192
........................................................................................................................................... 192
................................................................................................................................................ 196
................................................................................................................................................. 198
(scripts) MATLAB ................................................................................................................. 200
(script) R ( HYETOS-R)
..................................................................................................................................... 206
..... 225
-
[ix]
/
.
(
).
.
,
-
.
.
.
( ),
.
.
Abstract
Pumped storage is a proven technology with very high efficiency that offers a unique large-scale
energy buffer. Energy storage is employed by pumping water upstream to take advantage of the
excess of energy (e.g. during night) and next retrieving this water to generate hydro-power during
demand peaks. This excess can be offered by other renewables, which can be integrated within
hydroelectric systems with pumped storage facilities to formulate autonomous hybrid renewable
energy systems (HRES). The optimal planning and management of HRES requires a holistic
overview, where uncertainty is properly represented. In this context, a novel framework is
proposed, based on stochastic simulation and optimization. This is tested in an existing
hydrosystem of Greece, considering its combined operation with a hypothetical wind power
system, for which we seek the optimal design to ensure the most beneficial performance of the
overall scheme1.
1 European Geosciences Union (EGU) 5th EGU Leonardo Conference Hydrofractals 2013 STAHY 13, Kos Island, Greece, 1719 October 2013: http://itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/1386/
-
[x]
-
[1]
1.
1.1.
-
.
. ,
.
,
( ) .
-
, .
, /
. , ,
:
.
1.2.
-
.
:
.
..
.
.
1.3.
:
/
.
-
[2]
.
.
.
,
1000 .
1.3.
8 .
.
, .
,
. -.
-
.
,
,
. , .
, : (
). ,
.
.
- ,
.
: ,
.
-
[3]
2. :
. ,
, ,
-, .
.
,
, .
2.1.
2.1.1.
.
( ):
( ) ( )dS
I t O tdt
(2.1)
:
( )S t : , t.
dS
dt: .
( )I t : .
( )O t : .
,
.
:
i. I ,
(, ) ().
.
ii. P (, ).
:
i. E .
ii. G,
(
, ).
iii. : , R.
-
[4]
2-1: (: 2000, , 2012)
2-1.
(2.1)
,
:
1t t t t t t tS S I P G E O (2.2)
:
1tS : t+1.
tS : t.
tI , tP , tG , tE , tO : o ( )
t.
H (2.2)
:
i. :
min tS S K (2.3)
minS K .
ii. :
max0 tR R (2.4)
maxR .
-
[5]
, ,
(2.2).
2.1.2.
,
(, 2012).
().
.
( ) (-).
.
,
.
( 2-2).
2-2: . : (, 2008)
:
t t tE V H (2.5)
:
-
[6]
tE : t.
tV : t.
tH : t.
: ,
.
:
2-1: (--, 2007)
tE tV tH
GWh hm3 m GWh/hm4
(2.5) - :
I Q H n (2.6)
nH (2.7)
g , g .
n
H , nH :
0.2725 nH
nH
(2.8)
nH H (2.9)
(fh ,h
) .
(2.5),
nH :
0.2725 nH
n H
(2.10)
n fH H h h (2.11)
,
, ( )f H , -
.
-
(). 0.2725 (2.8) &
(2.10)
( 1n , nH H ).
-
[7]
2.2. : ,
-
2.2.1.
Mays and Tung (1992, . 8)
, : (.)
, (.)
( ), (.) .
(hydrosystem)
, ,
( et al., 2007).
,
, ,
( , , , .)
(, , , , .),
.
. ,
,
, , ,
, ,
, ,
, .
(Grigg, 1996),
.
2.2.2.
(simulation)
, (Winston, 1994).
(simulation model)
, ,
.
,
, ,
(, 2000).
,
. ,
.
,
(forecast).
-
[8]
: (.) (.)
. ( 3)
, .
(inputs) ,
. ,
.
( )
.
(
), (
).
( ).
(stochastic simulation)
, Monte Carlo (, 2000).
2-3: - . .
, .
2.2.3.
,
.
-
[9]
(decisions) (evaluations)
( et al., 2007).
(optimal) (performance
measure) .
(optimisation).
,
(optimisation),
,
, ,
1 (objective function) (control variables).
2-4.
2-4: ( 2012, )
.
,
. ,
( et al., 2007).
(stochastic optimization).
:
,
(, 2012). -
(simulation-optimisation) 2-5.
-
[10]
2-5: (Fu and Hu, 1997. , 2012)
2.2.4.
(reliability),
(Chow et al., 1988, . 434).
:
*( )P X x (2.12)
(..
, ) x* (-) .
,
, (Koutsoyiannis, 2004).
(
) (safe yield). ,
: x*
(.. 99%, 97%, 95%):
* *( )P X x (2.13)
-
[11]
n
n ,
:
'na
n
(2.14)
,
.
2-6: . ( ).
2.2.5. &
(firm energy)
.
(, 2012). , ,
:
.
.
( )
.
.
2-7.
-
[12]
2-7: . 44 GWh 96% ( ).
. ,
, .
( )
:
( ) . 2-8
2006
(, 2012).
,
(, )
( ). ,
( ). ,
. 2-2 1998
.
.
,
,
.
-
[13]
2-2: , 1998 (: , 2012)
(
)
,
, , ,
.
8353 316 40 320 1035 0 10064
849 19428 690 0 0 138 21105
9156 15525 725 320 1035 138 26900
8207 23139 352 0 0 0 31698
37 21129 0 0 0 3645 24811
0 920 29 0 0 456 1405
0 0 1 0 0 273 274
985 12667 344 0 1029 3380 18406
0 379 201 0 0 0 580
964 12669 142 0 1029 3380 18184
917 2060 129 205 1110 4421
0 7277 0 0 0 15 7292
, ,
48 3332 13 0 824 2255 6472
21 -380 0 0 0 0 -359
-
[14]
2-8: 2006 (: , 2012). .
-
[15]
2.2.6. :
(curse of dimensionality):
. ,
n m
(
), mn (, 2012).
. ,
.
. (..
)
(Nalbantis and Koutsoyiannis, 1997),
.
.
:
(principle of parsimony):
.
-
(, 2008).
. ,
.
,
.
2.3. :
2.3.1.
.
,
.
-
[16]
( ) .
,
.
,
(ReVelle, 2000), (Wasimi and
Kitanidis, 1983 Loaiciga and Marino, 1985 Georgakakos and Marks, 1987 Faber and Stedinger,
2001). , ,
, ,
(
). ,
,
. ,
.
. , ,
,
(Graham et al., 1986 Labadie, 1995
Fredericks et al., 1998 Israel and Lund, 1999 Dai and Labadie, 2001).
,
. ,
Kuczera (1989), ,
. ,
,
(, & , 2007).
,
(genetic algorithms)
(fuzzy logic) (neural
networks). ,
(Loucks et al, 2005).
,
:
.
.
.
.
(Duan et al., 1992):
-
[17]
(effectiveness), (
) .
(efficiency), (
, ).
(, 2012). ,
.
(Althusser, 1984 , 1991).2
2.3.2.
,
.
.
(2) :
1t t t tS S I O (2.15)
.
tO :
t t t tO R Y Q (2.16)
:
tR : ( )
.
tY : t.
tQ : ,
t.
,
( minS ,K )
( maxR ),
z :
2 , .
. . ,
., link: http://www.theseis.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1195&Itemid=29, , , 120, : - 2012
-
[18]
1
min
max
1
:
:
, 1, 2,...,
0
( , , )
, 0
0
t t t t t t
t
t
t t t
t t
Maximize z d
st
S S I R Y Q t n
S S K
R R
f R S S d
S Y
d
(2.17)
f
t . , (2.5) ( (2.6)) (
):
2 2
1 1
( ) ( ) ( )t t
t tE Idt g n Q Q t H t dt
(2.18)
2 2
1 1
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )t t
t tE g n Q Q t H t dt H Q t dt H V
(2.19)
(2.19) (2.18) .
V : .
H : .
( ) , :
( , )t tE f R S (2.20)
, ().
(Revelle, 2000)
(, 2012) .
( et
al. 2007, 2012).
2.4. /:
2.4.1.
,
, ,
.
. ()
.
(, .)
.
-
[19]
.
.
.
.
.
.
(, 2013).
13800 MW,
3100 MW 1466 MW.
(www.admie.gr)
.
.
(, 2009).
2.4.2.
/. , ,
.
(, 2012). 2009 / 104
GW (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
H
( )
.
/ Kazunogawa. 2001 Yamnashi-Ken
, 1600 MW 19,2 18,4 hm3
685 m (, 2011).
Okinawa 1999 .
/ , 30 MW
140 m (, 2011).
/ 2-9.
Okinawa 2-10,
Kazunogawa 2-11.
-
[20]
2-9: /. -- (, 2013).
2-10: / Okinawa . (upper pond) (-penstock, -powerhouse). (, 2011)
2.5.
2.5.1.
, :
fH h h (2.21)
:
h : .
fh :
.
, :
-
[21]
( )f fN g h Q (2.22)
.
2-11: / (, 2013)
(, , ) ,
:
P M Trn n n n (2.23)
N
hN , hN N ( )hN N fN
.
2.5.2.
.
.
:
fH h h (2.24)
(2.21).
(2.22)
.
(, , )
, :
T G Trn n n n (2.25)
-
[22]
hN eN
(
), . e hN N .
, (, )
65-85% ( 35-15%
) , ..
2-12.
2-12: (, 2013)
2.5.3.
:
: ,
.
.
.
:
.
.
,
:
.
(, 2009).
.
-
[23]
3. :
, , .
. ,
,
, --
-
. ,
.
3.1. 1973
.
,
(
)
.
.
( 1973 1980-1981).
45%
1980-81. ,
1980-81.
1986 1980-81
25 40 ( 2008) 18 .
2004 .
. ,
. ,
,
. ,
(, 2008)3.
3-1.
3 link: http://www.ananeotiki.gr/el/readAuthors.asp?authorID=564&page=1&textID=2739
-
[24]
3-1: ,1861-2007 ( , ). : http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg
.
, .
,
. ,
(2008-2012)
1990 ( 1995 ).
,
. , :
.
.
.
(
- ),
4.
, ,
. ,
, 20-20-20. 2020
20% , 20%
20% .
4 , . , : , . & . , , 120,
: - 2012: http://www.theseis.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1196&Itemid=29
-
[25]
20% 2020
.
20% 2020,
2009/28/ ( ),
2020.
,
, .
,
. 3-2.
3-2: (, , ). : , http://www.ypeka.gr/?tabid=285
3.2. (
) .
(sustainability) (Brundtland
& World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
. , ,
.
. ,
,
(Koutsoyiannis et al., 2009).
-
[26]
,
:
, .
(Ediger et al.,
2007).
,
(degrowth).
,
, ,
. -
,
,
, .5
dcroissance
degrowth. , a-growth
,
.
()
economic growth ( ,
) development (
, , , .).
(, 2012).
3.3. :
, .
,
.
, ,
(rebound effect),
,
.
.
,
5 Latouche, S. (2003). Dcoloniser l'imaginaire: La Pense crative contre l'conomie de l'absurde, Parangon, Lyon.
-
[27]
.
.
,
,
, , .
1000 ""
( !)
.
3-3: ( ) , 1960 2011. .
2008 . :
(http://data.worldbank.org)
, .
,
,
,
. (, )
(, 2012). ,
,
6.
3-3.
6 , . : 11 , ( ), 2013.
-
[28]
3.4. :
3.4.1.
.
, , , (
) , , ,
. , ,
( - /), .
, .
,
, , ,
, ..
3.4.2.
,
, , ,
( ).
.
, , ,
. 3-4.
3-4: .
-
[29]
. , (
). ,
.
, .
,
,
, , .
,
,
(, 2010 , 2013). .3468/2006,.129, .2, 257:
:
i. . ii. ,
30%
. iii.
20%.
3.4.3.
(, ..)
.
,
,
(, 2013).
.
( ) (
:
), ,
. ,
,
,
( ,2009).
7 http://www.desmie.gr/ape-sithya/adeiodotiki-diadikasia-kodikopoiisi-nomothesias-ape/periechomena/diadikasia-adeiodotisis/ybridikoi-stathmoi-ilektroparagogis-apo-ape/
-
[30]
,
,
,
.
3.4.4. /
( /)
(.. ).
.
,
(, 2012). ,
.
/.
.
El Hierro (
) .
.
:
()
.
(/) .
.
.
.
:
i. : , 1,05 MW,
( ) .
, .
, , 3,1 MW,
.
ii. : , 2,4 MW,
,
.
, .
-
[31]
10,96
GWh.
,
.
3-5.
3-5: .
: (http://www.ppcr.gr/Energy.aspx?C=29)
El Hierro :
11,5 MW 11.000
, ,
.
- , 700
m, .
,
11,3 MW
. ,
.
80% , 20%
,
. ,
(, 2013).
El Hierro 3-6.
-
[32]
3-6: El Hierro. : Clean Energy/Action Project
3.5. .
3.5.1.
. , ,
16% .
3-7, ( )
3% (2,6% ) .
25 .
, (
6 % ). 3-8.
. (,
, , , )
(80-100%),
. 2/3 ,
99% (Koutsoyiannis, 2011).
, ,
(31%). , ,
,
-
[33]
3-7: 45 (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).
3-8: 1987 2012.
(: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf )
-
[34]
( ) .
,
.
(170 MW, 340
GWh/, 500 . ).
.
1.200.000 m3
. ,
, .
, ,
( )
(
). ,
,
. ,
.
,
1.200.000 m3 , 600.000 m3,
250.000 m3 ,
.
, ,
18
.
250.000 m3 .
18 ,
200.000 m3 (8, 2013).
3-1
, .
, 3-2
.
Scale of water resources development and sustainability:
small is beautiful, large is great (Koutsoyiannis, 2011).
8 , , 2013. : http://oikotrives.wordpress.com/2013/06/02/acheloos-thessalia/
-
[35]
3-1: 8 .
(TWh/)
(TWh/)
(%)
25 25 100
72 70 97
55 52 95
36 34 94
40 35 88
85 68 80
180 120 67
15 4,7 31 3-2: .
(% )
(%)
10 75
13 75
20 30
45 25
12 8
3.5.2.
I. ,
( 3-12). ,
. ,
, .
,
. 5 MW, 10 MW,
15 MW.
, .
(
) .
( ),
.
10 MW 15 m 80 m3/s ,
16 MW, 30 m 60 m3/s . ,
, ( , 2013).
, .
(Koutsoyiannis, 2011):
-
[36]
;
;
;
, ;
.
, (,
). 3-9.
3-9: , (: , 2013).
II.
,
. (
) , .
. ,
,
. /
(
3-3).
-
[37]
3-3: (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).
90-95%
Betz ( )
59%
10-30%
hree junction concentrators ( )
41,6%
14-19%
(
) 60%
10-50%
.
, (
).
. ,
, ,
.
,
.
III.
.
( ) .
.
( )
. ,
95%, .
IV.
. 2000-2010 ,
, 250 ,
437 MW. :
: (.. )
437 MW 250
;
-
[38]
,
( 3-10).
3-10: 7400 MW (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).
, ,
Q , 3-11.
( )
.
,
.
3-11: (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).
-
[39]
3-12: . (%) . 1190 km3/ (: , 1999).
-
[40]
3.6.
-:
--
3.6.1.
(3.4)
.
, : .
. , (
) (..
). , ,
.
/, ,
.
,
, .
(..
), .
, ,
() / .
3.6.2.
3.6.2.1.
,
. , ,
( : 3-12),
.
,
, :
(availability of resources),
.
(management of resources),
.
, ( , , , , )
.
.
-
[41]
-,
.
3.6.2.2.
(, , ..)
.
. ( )
.
(risk),
:
11 1
n
RT
(3.1)
:
n : .
R : n .
- (
) .
.
.
3-13: . Hurst-Kolmogorov (: Koutsoyiannis et al., 2009).
-
[42]
, (, )
Hurst-Kolmogorov.
. 3-13
( , , )
Hurst-Kolmogorov.
3.6.2.3.
2.2.4.
.
, .
(external constraint)
, (objective to
maximize).
(safe yield), (firm
energy). 2.
,
. ,
,
100% ( ).
3.6.2.4.
,
:
,
.
(
, , , ..).
,
.
,
2.2. 3-14 ,
.
3.6.2.5. --
:
i. (.. )
.
ii. .
-
[43]
iii. .
iv. .
- --
:
i.
.
ii. ,
.
iii. ,
, .
iv.
Monte-Carlo.
v. .
3-15.
H (Efstratiadis, 2012).
3-14: ( ). (: Efstratiadis, 2012).
-
[44]
3-15: (: Efstratiadis, 2012)
-
[45]
3.6.3. :
, -
(
)
, ,
.
.
.
.
(2012).
. ,
, ,
.
3-16.
3-16: , ,
,
(: , 2012).
.
.
-
[46]
m
:
2
(1 )/2 / 1/ 1m z (3.2)
pz p . =6%,
=10% =95% m =6000 (Koutsoyiannis and Economou, 2003).
,
,
.
.
60% ,
43%.
MW
( ) MWh .
,
( ,
, ..). ,
,
- .
3-17: 2009 2011 (: ).
, 2011
(http://government.gov.gr/2012/04/09/29058/ ),
2011 1636MW,
1300MW ( 26%). ,
,
,
-
[47]
.
3-17
(2009, 2010, 2011).
,
. ,
( . 2/2013 )
.
3.7.
,
.
,
,
.
,
,
.
/
-,
.
--
,
.
.
-
[48]
4.
- ,
.
,
.
.
4.1. : () .
(,
) .
(, ) ().
, ,
-
.
'
297 km. ,
. ,
1950, ()
. .
, , ,
.
, , , , .
, , ,
, , , .
. ,
-.
2,03 * 109 m3. 6.016
km2. , , ,
, , . ,
,
. , ,
1.300.000 .
-
[49]
4.2. ,
40000 ,
(220000 ). ,
. ,
,
.
- -
, .
1971
Natura 2000.
IBA (Important Bird Areas-
).
4-1: .
4-2: : : (: http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%91%CF%81%CF%87%CE%B5%CE%AF%CE%BF:Thessaloniki_Satellite_View.jpg ).
-
[50]
4.3.
4.3.1.
13 441 km2.
, , 1991 569 684
2001 596 891 , 4,8% ( 2001
, 2001
1991).
.
,
, , ,
, .
(
), ( ), ( )
( ).
( -, , ,
).
4.3.2.
2 000 . -
.
(2 128 ), (2 111 )
(1688 ), (2524 ), (2052 ) (2
180).
, , ,
, . ,
.
.
, ,
, .
, , , , , ,
, , ,
.
4.3.3.
,
.
.
600 1 000 mm, 1200
mm. -.
-
[51]
14.5 17C,
.
4-1: (: , http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/782/ )
(C) 12,1 12,9 12,5 14,8
(C) -21,4 -16,8 -22,4 -9,0
(C) 40,8 42,2 41,6 37,8
(mm) 645,7 507,6 555,5 540,0
(%) 69,2 63,8 65,0 64,3
() 3,9 3,8 3,8 3,7
85,3 91,2 93,4 59,8
27,2 18,7 19,6 5
0,4 0,4 0,9 0,1
16,3 22,4 13,0 5,6
4-3: (: ,
http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/782/ )
-
[52]
4.3.4.
(8813 km2),
(2133 km2), (863
km2) (815 km2). ,
600 km2, (
), , (
), .
. 4-3
.
,
( .., 2008).
4.3.5.
, ,
, .
(1443 km2), (871 km2),
(386 km2), (353 km2), (292 km2), (252 km2),
(178 km2) (117 km2).
,
.
4.3.6.
(
) ,
1 000 MW.
(, , ), 1334 hm3
(, 2002), 2001, 400600 hm3, ,
.
12 - 8090 hm3
, .
( ), .
,
, .
,
,
.
( 2007
2013). ,
-
[53]
.
4.4. :
,
. ,
, . .
, .
, .
. ( )
.
4-4 , 4-5
.
4-4: . , , , .
(: , 2008).
2006
12695 MW.
3.060 MW, 24%
13% .
4-6
1953 2006,
.
-
[54]
4-5: (: , - ).
4-6: 1953 2006 (: , 2008).
-
[55]
4.4.1.
45 km .
, , , ,
, , ,
.
2244 hm3,
1220 hm3. 1998-2007 1373 hm3
18% 10 .
5800 km2 74 km2.
291,0 m 293,0 m.
634 m, 9,7 m 1600 m3/s.
. 4-7.
4-7: .
112 m. 300 m,
10 m 297 m. 3 ,
12,9 x 5,5 m 1.375 m3/sec .
4,6 km, 8,5 m
7,5 m 345 m3/sec.
, , :
: 3 x 125 MW , : 15750 V : Francis : 146,5 m : 125 /min : 3,2 m3/kWh
-
[56]
,
.
, 84 m 28 m, 86 m
7 m.
4-8: .
4.4.2.
20 km
. , ,
, , , ,
.
99 hm3
18 hm3. 4,3 km2. 146,0 m,
141,8 m 147,0 m.
, 490 m,
7,5 m 620 m3/s. 88,0 m
84,0 m. ,
.
1.620.000 m3.
82 m, 220 m
12 m. 7,2 m x 9,0 m
, .
-
[57]
137,0 m 1600 m3/s.
( ) ,
5,6 m x 10,9 m 22,0 m.
. 126,0 m.
, ( ).
160,80 m 7,0 m.
134,05 m 73,0 m.
.
,
,
:
: 3 x 105 MW : 3 x 108 MW : 15750 V : Francis : 143000 HP : 62 m : 125 /min : 7,2 m3/kWh : 5,3 m3/kWh
. 3,50 / 3,00 m,
309 m 100 m3/sec.
:
: 1985.
: 1986.
: 1985.
4-9: .
-
[58]
4.4.3.
8 km .
, , , ,
, , .
, ,
53 . m3 10 hm3. 2,6 km2.
85,5 m, 81,0 m 89,0 m.
, 496 m,
7,2 m / 8,5 m 600 m3/s.
42,5 m 37,6 m.
,
.
, 1.450.000 m3.
52 m, 205 m
15 m. 7,0 m x 8,0 m
, .
77,0 m 1600 m3/s. (
) , 4,8 m
x 9,3 m 17,9 m.
. 69,5 m.
, ( ).
59,0 m 6,0 m.
74,4 m 42,5 m.
. ,
, :
: 3 x 55 MW : 15750 V : Francis : 75700 HP : 42 m : 125 /min : 10,0 m3/kWh
,
. 53,0 m,
37,6 m 90 m3/s.
:
: 1985.
: 1985.
-
[59]
4-10: .
4.4.4. .
(920 kW . , 3 x 3,6 MW
) ( )
.
4-11: . & .
4.4.5.
.
( )
:
330 GWh .
.
.
.
.
-
[60]
.
21,9 km2, 412 hm3.
403 m 403,5 m. H
4-12.
4-12: (: , 2009).
, .
,
. ,
( - )
140 . m3 ,
.
.
.
,
, 30 GWh .
,
(,
2008). 152 MW
, , ,
, 430 GWh. , ,
,
, 200 GWh .
. ,
, 8,0 Km 45 km
. (
4-13). 504,0 m,
500,0 m 450,0 m.
, 75 W
, 2,0 W,
-
[61]
. /
.
4-13: (: , 2008).
,
, .
( , 2008):
:
820.00 hm3, ,
,
.
(1985), () ,
115.00 m .
, (5) (), ,
-, , , ,
. 35%
50% , 16%
( )
. 40% .
1660.00 hm3
( ),
,
.
-
[62]
.
4-14
(1985).
4-14: (, , , ) , (: , 2008).
4.4. :
4.4.1.
, ,
, .
,
.
.
,
,
, .
. ,
, kWh
.
-
[63]
:
: .
:
.
:
.
:
.
: .
:
10 m 4 m/s.
5,5-6 m/s.
.
.
.
1000 m ,
-10 m.
500 m .
,
( ) 6 m/s.
,
(http://penteli.meteo.gr/meteosearch/map.asp )
9 ( )
(http://aims.cres.gr/grwind150/viewer.htm
http://www.cres.gr/kape/datainfo/maps.htm ).
4.4.2.
,
.
, :
i. .
ii. .
iii. .
iv. .
v. .
9 : http://www.rae.gr/site/categories_new/about_rae/intro.csp
-
[64]
4-15.
.
4-15: .
4-17.
. 4-16 .
4-16: .
-
[65]
4-17: .
,
,
.
160 km 60 km
,
.
. ,
( 1650 m 1219 m 1494 m 1490
m 831 m) .
, (1607 m).
(),
. (860 m)
(1197 m), ( 713
m, 745 m, ..) .
, ,
.
-
[66]
,
. ,
,
. .
,
. .
, ,
.
(
). ,
. ,
.
4-18
.
4-19 .
4-18: .
-
[67]
4-19: . .
( 4-20).
(5-8 m/s). ,
.
.
1,4 % ,
(
EWEA).
( 2010) ,
32,3% 24,5%, 6,9%, .
6,2% 4,5%. 84323
MW.
,
33% 2007 2010 2010,
,
32 . .
-
[68]
4-20: (: http://www.westenergy.gr/?page_id=238 )
-
[69]
5. :
.
.
,
. ,
:
.
5.1.
.
.
. ( )X t
1 2, ,..., tX X X , t
(..
).
:
i. :
( ) [ ( )]t E X t (5.1)
ii. ( ):
( ) [ ( )]t Var X t (5.2)
2[ ( )] [( ( ) ( )) ]Var X t E X t t (5.3)
iii. , (lag) :
( ; ) cov[ ( ), ( )]t X t X t (5.4)
cov[ ( ), ( )] [( ( ) ( ))( ( ) ( ))]X t X t X t t X t t (5.5)
iv. :
cov[ ( ), ( )]( ; )
[ ( )] [ ( )]
X t X tt
Var X t Var X t
(5.6)
-
[70]
-1 +1 .
.
. :
. 5-1
(:
, , 2012).
5-1: .
,
. : -,
. :
i. ( )X t , ( )Y t :
( ) cov[ ( ), ( )]XYC X t Y t (5.7)
ii. :
cov[ ( ), ( )]( )
[ ( )] [ ( )]XY
X t Y tr
Var X t Var Y t
(5.8)
,
(0)XYr .
-
[71]
10.
5.2. Hurst-Kolmogorov
Hurst-Kolmogorov. Hurst (1951)
. urst
.
olmogorov (1940)
,
(Simple Scaling Stochastic model) (Fractal
Gaussian Noise).
, .
.
5-2 . 5-3
,
.
5-2: 5 25 (: , 2004).
Hurst H o [0,1].
urst [0,0.5] -
. urst
[0.5,1]
. Hurst 0.5
10 http://itia.ntua.gr/courses/stochwatres/index.html
-
[72]
.
5-3: (: , 2004).
, .
Hurst. Hurst .
.
Hurst-Kolmogorov
. ,
( , 2004).
, :
(, 2012) ,
.
Hurst
. ,
11 (2012). , Hurst
, ( )
.
,
.
11 : http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/1300/
-
[73]
5.3.
,
.
,
(, 2013).
-
(
).
5-4.
5-4: - (: , 2012, ).
:
i. AR(1) Markov,
.
ii. , .
-
[74]
5.3.1. AR(1)
(i)
(i-1). :
1i i iX a X V (5.9)
iV
( ).
(autoregression) Markov AR(1).
AR(1) ,
.
a , [ ( ), ( )]i iV Var V :
( ) (1 )i XV a (5.10)
2 2( ) (1 )i XVar V a (5.11)
1a (5.12)
:
: .
2 : .
1 : .
,
. ,
, , :
( ) ke (5.13)
5.3.2.
, Hurst-Kolmogorov.
,
(Fractional Gaussian Noise, FGN) (Mandelbrot, 1965).
iX , 1,2,...i .
[ ]iE X , cov[ , ]j i i jX X ,
0[ , ] /j i i j jcorr X X ( 0, 1, 2,...)j 0 (,
2013).
k (
1) iX . :
-
[75]
( )
( 1) 1
1 ikki i
l i k
X Xk
(5.14)
( )[ ]kiE X .
j . :
( ) ( )( ) ( )
H
k l
i d j
kX X
l
, 0 1H
(5.15)
d , i , j , k l
H Hurst. 1i j l
:
( ) 2 2
0 0
k Hk (5.16)
, :
( ) ( )
( 1) 1
ikk k
i i
l i k
Z Xi kX
(5.17)
:
( )[ ]kiE Z k (5.18)
( ) ( ) 2
0 0[ ]k k H
iVar Z k (5.19)
( ) ( ) 1/2
0( )k k (5.20)
, ( )k
iX ( )k
iZ
k :
2 2 2( ) 1 / 2 1 / 2H H Hk
j j j j j (5.21)
:
( ) 2 2(2 1)k Hj j H H j (5.22)
:
2
[ ]Var Xn
(5.23)
Hurst-Kolmogorov :
2
2 2[ ]
HVar X
n
(5.24)
.
-
[76]
5.4. (
10 ),
.
,
. ,
,
( , 2004, .., 2005). ,
(2011), ,
.
:
,
, ,
.
.
,
Hurst,
.
,
:
) ,
, ,
) ,
.
,
() (
), .
.
(, ),
,
, .
,
. ,
. , ,
-
[77]
.
,
, ,
.
(, 2012).
,
,
.
SMA. ,
ARMA FGN
(Koutsoyiannis, 2013):
1/
0[1 ]j j (5.25)
, .
,
.
5-5: = 1 , .
= 0, de l' Hospital, (5.25) :
0 exp( )j j (5.26)
>1, (5.25) FGN,
:
-
[78]
0
1:
(1 1/ )(1 1/ 2 )
(5.27)
0 [0, 1] (5.25)
ARMA FGN. 5-5 (5.25) ,
=1. =0, (5.25) ARMA,
.
0 =2, FGN .
, .
, Hurst FGN
(, , 2005).
. ,
( )
. 5-6
.
5-6: . .
.
.
.
.
-
[79]
5.5.
5.5.1.
-
(
) . (...).
, (Decision Support Systems, DSS)
,
.
,
.
,
-
(Dreyfus and Dreyfus, 1986 Watkins and McKinney, 1995).
(.
Watkins and McKinney, 1995):
( ,
, )
(
)
-
( ,
, .)
.
, ,
, (,
, , , ),
. ,
. :
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
-
[80]
.
,
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
.
, .
,
. ,
.
,
(, , 2002).
--
.
(, , .),
, ,
. ,
, ,
, .
,
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
.
, ,
5-7 :
1:
, ,
, .
,
.
2: ,
, . ,
, ,
-
[81]
.
, ,
, ,
. ,
,
.
5-7: (: , , 2007).
3: ,
. ,
, .
4: , ,
,
, .
,
, ( simplex).
,
.
, ,
, .
.
, (
).
-
[82]
5: ,
(, , , .).
6: ,
.
,
.
(, , 2007).
,
12.
5.5.2. :
. ,
,
.
,
,
. ,
, , ,
,
, .
5-8 ,
:
.
.
.
.
.
5-9
.
12 : , http://itia.ntua.gr/el/softinfo/4/
-
[83]
5-8: , .
5-9: , .
-
[84]
:
Reservoirs (): . ,
.
Rivers (): .
Aqueducts (): .
Turbines (): .
.
Pumps ():
.
/.
Junctions (): . .
Targets (): (, , , ..).
. 5-10 :
.
5-10:
:
( )
.
-
[85]
5.5.3. To
.
.
,
.
, .
:
i. .
ii. (.. -
).
iii.
.
iv. .
( )
.
, ( )s t , ,
(
) :
*
i i i is k a k b s (5.28)
ik i , k
, ia ib [0, 1], *
is
- . ia ib
.
(5.28) :
*
i is b s (5.29)
(5.29) , (5.28)
ia , :
ii
ka
k
(5.30)
.
(5.28)
. 5-11.
,
.
-
[86]
5.5.4.
,
,
, . ,
,
, .
(steady-state).
,
( ) .
, ,
,
. ,
. ,
,
, ,
, , .
, (terminating)
(, , 2007).
,
.
,
. ,
5-11:
(: ,
, 2007)
-
[87]
animation (animation tab)
5-12.
5.5.5.
, (
) . ,
,
.
. :
1
m
j j
j
F w f
(5.31)
jf jw ,
. ,
,
. , ,
( ,
).
5-12: .
-
[88]
,
,
(, , 2007).
1 2[ , ,..., ]nx x x x
F :
1
min max
min ( ) ( )
[ , ]
m
j j
j
F x w f x
x x x
(5.32)
13 5-
13.
5-13: (: , , 2007).
.
, .
13 :
, (, , 2007): http://itia.ntua.gr/softwaredownload/4/2/software/Hydronomeas_theory.pdf
-
[89]
5.5.6.
2,
( , )i j :
ij ij ij ijE V H (5.33)
. ,
H
0.2725 GWh/hm4. 1
, nH H .
( )H .
( , )i iH
, .
.
:
inlet outletH Level Level (5.34)
, ,
,
. ,
, .
, ijPI
MW :
ij ijE PI (5.35)
,
.
, ,
.
:
i. .
ii. [0,1]ije
.
5-14 , 5-15
.
-
[90]
5-14: (, GWh).
5-15: .
-
[91]
5.6. ,
.
,
( )iE t .
:
1 2( ) ( ( ), ( ),..., ( ))nJ T E t E t E t
(5.36)
n o .
.
a ( (2.13)),
:
1 2( ) ( ( ), ( ),..., ( ))nJ E t E t E t (5.37)
(2012)
:
i. Total Generated Firm Power ( ):
.
: (a.)
. (b.)
. :
1
( ) ( )n
i
i
J a E t
(5.38)
ii. Sum of Generated Firm Power ( ):
. : (a.)
. (b.) .
:
1
( ) ( ( ))n
i
i
J a E t
(5.39)
a Scenario
Options Energy. 5-16.
.
-
[92]
5.7.
. Total Generated Firm Power
Sum of Generated Firm Power
.
.
( ... ),
.
.
.
.
.
.
( , 2013).
5-17 .
(
).
.
5-16:
.
-
[93]
5-17: . (: , 2013).
,
:
) 14 . ,
12-2013,
-49%- . ,
2014, 51%.
) 30%
, 1400MW , 500MW , 500W
. 2015.
) 2015
2016.
:
14 ( ) 100% .., .
().
-
[94]
(
)
.
.
.
.
(
) -
.
-
:
:
. , ,
.
:
,
. ,
,
.
:
fast track
.
: --
.
:
, ( , 2013).
,
15.
15 : . , , , .
-
[95]
.
5.8. ,
. ( ) ,
. 5-1
.
5-1: .
/ [km2]
1 4986,00
2 814,00
3 172,10
4 67,98
5 . 18,69
,
.
. :
t , tS .
P mm.
E mm.
O ,
powerV .
, tH .
, tI hm3.
,
,
:
i. - ( )S f H
t .
ii. P
(50km2) tP hm3.
iii. E
hm3.
iv. S hm3.
hm3 :
-
[96]
,t t t power tI S P E V (5.40)
5-18
.
5-18: - (: ).
:
1,130335,448 ( 270)S H (5.41)
5-19
.
.
5-19
.
tI (hm3) I (mm), :
1000 /tI I A (5.42)
A km2.
,
.
.
(
), .
-
[97]
5-19: .
-
[98]
5.9.
5.9.1.
,
( ):
i. .
.
ii. 10.
iii. .
iv. .
.
:
1. (1) .
2. (2) (
) .
3. (3) .
5-20
.
5-20: .
,
. ,
.
. .
-
[99]
5.9.2.
.
.
63,36 hm3/. 12 ,
5,28 hm3/. 5-21
.
381,4 hm3/.
5-2 (, 2012):
5-2: .
[%] 5 11 23,6 30,2 26,4 3,8 100
[hm3] 19,07 41,954 90,0104 115,1828 100,6896 14,4932 381,4
5-22.
5-22: .
5-21:
.
-
[100]
5.9.3.
()
(...)
. 4
.
620MW, :
I 70MW.
II 125MW.
III 125MW.
IV 300MW.
I 1959, II 125MW
1962, III 1965 IV
1973.
5-23
.
5-23: .
65 hm3/,
5,42 hm3/.
-
[101]
5.9.4.
(. .: 40754) :
,
4,5 m3/sec. 5-24
.
5.10.
/
.
:
i. 1: .
- .
ii. 2:
, (target) . Sum of
Generated Firm Power.
.
. ,
4,5 ../. (. 22).
2013
. . ,
60.000.000 .. (. 26).
5-24:
.
-
[102]
iii. 3:
, (target) . Total
Generated Firm Power.
iv. 4:
.
.
.
.
- ,
,
.
, 2 & 3
(2)
(3). 5-26 5-28
.
5.11. -
. 5-25
.
5-25: .
(components)
.
-
[103]
5-26: 1 ( ).
-
[104]
5-27: 2 3. , (target) . Sum of Generated Firm Power Total Generated Firm Power. .
-
[105]
5-28: 4 ( ).
-
[106]
5.12.
-
.
.
.
8h/.
, 33% .
:
i. ( , )H Q ( , )H :
.
ii. 33% , 67%.
.
(reduction factors),
1 =0,67 2 =0,33. :
1 2 1 (5.43)
.
,
.
5.13.
.
, (144,5m)
(Head).
( m3)
(Discharge) m3/s :
100024 3600 31
powerVQ
(5.44)
( , )H Q
5-29. monthE ( mWh)
( , )H :
100 month
power
E
V Head
(5.45)
5-30.
-
[107]
5-29: (,Q)
5-30: (,)
.
, 0,23.
,
. 5-3 5-4.
, ,
SpCon ( m3/kWh) :
1100
SpCon Head
(5.46)
5-5.
-
[108]
5-3:
m3/sec .
(m3/kWh) 3,2 7,2 10,5
(MW) 120 105 55
1 (m3/sec) 107 210 160
2 (m3/sec) 107 210 160
3 (m3/sec) 107 210
(m3/sec) 320 630 321 5-4:
m3/sec
(m3/kWh) 5,3
- (MW) 105
1 (m3/sec) 154
2 (m3/sec) 154
3 (m3/sec) 154
(m3/sec) 461 5-5:
Head [m] 146,5 62 42 Head [m] 62
[m3/kWh] 3,2 7,2 10,5
[m3/kWh] 5,3
Psi [kWh/m3/m] 0,2133106 0,224014 0,2267574 Psi [kWh/m3/m] 0,3043214
. 3 3 2 . 3
[MW] 120 105 55 [MW] 105
[MW] 360 315 110 [MW] 315
5-31 -
.
5-31:
,
.
-
[109]
5.14. 5.10
.
:
i. ( ,
, , ,
, ).
ii.
.
iii.
(5.31).
( 2.2.5).
.
iv. .
.
v. .
.
(plateau) . ,
. , ,
.
5-32
.
98,84%, .
5-32: .
-
[110]
5-33 .
(
).
() : Used control variables.
-
.
16 (2012).
16 : http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/1293/
5-33:
.
-
[111]
5.15.
5.15.1. 1:
1 .
.
.
Microsoft Excel small.
1000 .
Total
Generated Firm Power.
,
.
12,45 GWh,
99,12%.
.
.
[99.12, 12.45]
-
[112]
[99.17, 8.21]
[99.38, 4.63]
-
[113]
5-34, 5-35, 5-36, 5-37: 1.
(12,45 GWh 27,34
GWh).
. ,
,
.
Total Generated Firm Power Sum of Generated Firm Power
,
2, 3 .
[99.03, 27.34]
-
[114]
5.15.2. 2: - /Sum of Generated Firm
Power
[99.78, 12.09]
[98.88, 72.43]
-
[115]
5-38, 5-39, 5-40, 5-41: 2.
[99.87, 2.64]
[99.07, 87.84]
-
[116]
5.15.3. 2: - /Total Generated Firm
Power
[99.47, 12.87]
[98.75, 71.93]
-
[117]
5-42, 5-43, 5-44, 5-45: 3.
[99.82, 2.22]
[99.08, 84.65]
-
[118]
5.15.4. 2-3
2 3,
.
-
[119]
5-46, 5-47, 5-48, 5-49: 2-3.
-
[120]
, Total
Generated Firm Power
,
. Sum of Generated Firm Power
Total Generated Firm Power
( ) , Total Generated
Firm Power .
5.7
. ,
( ).
Total Generated Firm Power.
5.15.5. 4: /Total Generated Firm
Power
.
.
.
[99.61, 13.15]
-
[121]
[98.84, 72.43]
[99.91, 3.84]
-
[122]
5-50, 5-51, 5-52, 5-53: 4.
. ,
, . ,
.
[98.84, 89.96]
-
[123]
5.16.
5.16.1. 1-4
-
[124]
5-54, 5-55, 5-56, 5-57: 1-4.
-
[125]
5.16.2. 3-4
-
[126]
5-58, 5-59, 5-60, 5-61: 3-4.
-
[127]
5.16.3. 1
5-62, 5-63: 1.
-
[128]
5.16.4. 2
5-64, 5-65: 2.
-
[129]
5.16.5. 3
5-66, 5-67: 3.
-
[130]
5.16.6. 4
5-68, 5-69: 4.
-
[131]
5.17. ,
. , ,
-.
.
3 4,
. 5-70
, .
5-70: 3, 4.
-
.
,
.
.
-
[132]
6. :
. ,
,
. ,
.
,
.
6.1. ,
,
(6-9 ..) .
13 . 1888
.
,
.
, . ,
.
-
.
,
. .
, .
,
,
.
(, 2012).
,
( 6-1). ,
.
.
6-2
().
-
[133]
6-1: (: , 2013)
6-2: (: )
-
[134]
(
) ,
( , , , ),
.
6-3.
6-3: (: Enercon)
,
, ( ), ( ),
(
) (
.
6.2.
,
.
.
6-4
.
, .
.
.
:
160,593
27C
(6.1)
Betz.
. 6-4
-
[135]
.
.
6-4: .
:
6 5 4 3 2y 0,0021x 0,175x 5,2109x 66,301x 300,76x 441,72x (6.2)
6-1.
.
.
-126/7,5 MW/38 Enercon.
(2012),
:
.
6-5 .
-
[136]
Wind speed [m/s]
Power [kW]
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 55 0,263
4 175 0,352
5 410 0,423
6 760 0,453
7 1250 0,47
8 1900 0,478
9 2700 0,477
10 3750 0,483
11 4850 0,47
12 5750 0,429
13 6500 0,381
14 7000 0,329
15 7350 0,281
16 7500 0,236
17 7580 0,199
18 7580 0,168
19 7580 0,142
20 7580 0,122
21 7580 0,105
22 7580 0,092
23 7580 0,08
24 7580 0,071
25 7580 0,063
6-5: -126/7,5 MW/38 Enercon
6-1:
-126/7,5 MW/38
-
[137]
6-2 .
6-2: -126/7,5 MW/38 (: , 2012)
(
) (135 m).
:
http://www.enercon.de/en-en/66.htm
-
[138]
6.3. km/h,
.
(hub height). ,
.
( , 1999):
2 02
1 1 0
ln( / )
ln( / )
z zu
u z z
(6.3)
1u , 2u 1z 2z 0z
. (6.3) ,
6-3.
6-3: .
31/10/2011 1/11/2011
z1 [m] 10 5
z2 [m] 135 135
z0 [m] 0,1 0,1
1,565 1,842
,
0,1m. 6-6
.
6-6:
1,565 1,842.
. 10/10/2006 15:00
31/12/2012 23:50.
-
[139]
6.4. (6.3)
1/6 kWh. 2u
m/s 2( )P u kW (6.3)
kWh :
2( ) / 6tenE P u (6.4)
houru m/s, kWh
:
( ) 1hour hourE P u (6.5)
6-
7. 6-8
.
6-7: .
6-8: .
-
[140]
. 6-4.
Sum (10 minutes) [kWh] 34528516,431
Sum (Hour) [kWh] 29186649,753
.
.
6.5. :
Bartlett-Lewis
Bartlett-Lewis (RBLRPM),
.
,
( )
(Bartlett-Lewis)
. Bartlett-Lewis,
Bartlett Lewis,
.
,
(, 2011).
(2013) .
BLRPM (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1987a, . 279,
, 2011):
1. Poisson17 ,
, it . st
.
17 Poisson , nt ,
nt ,
( ) [ ] 1 , 0tF t P t t e t . nt n
() 1( ) ( ) , 0
( 1)!n
tn
t
ef t t t
n
, x
6-4:
-
[141]
2. Poisson, , ,
, ijt ,
, i . Poisson , BLRPM
. , cijt ,
.
3. , i ,
, i , ,
.
4. , ijw , ,
n .
, Poisson t , t
( )
( ) , 0,1,2,...!
t xe tP x x
x
Poisson ,
nt ( 1988, 2011).
-
[142]
5. , (,
), ijX .
, ,
RBLRPM, ,
, ,
, ( )in , , i .
, , ( )in ,
a , (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1988,
.284):
[ ]a
E n
, 2
[ ]a
Var nv
, 1a (6.6)
( )in ,
,
, a . ,
, 1a , RBLRPM,
.
, a , , ,
RBLRPM
, .
,
,
Bartlett-Lewis. , 1/
1/ ,
,
, 1/ in , . ,
,
,
(Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1988, . 285).
-
[143]
, Rodriguez-Iturbe et al.
:
i
in
, i
in
(6.7)
, i i ,
, i , in . , RBLRPM
.
Bartlett-Lewis, ,
(, ), X ,
, X . , , C ,
:
1C
(6.8)
, C
.
,
,
.
:
, , , , , X (6.9)
, ( )iY h ,
, , h :
( )
( 1)( ) , 1,2,...
ihh
ii h
Y Y s ds i
(6.10)
BLRPM 1 2 ,
, ( ( ) 0)iP Y h , ,
( )iY h , h , k (Rodriguez-Iturbe et
al., 1987, . 285):
1 ( / )1
h
i XY h
(6.11)
2 3 3 2 3 31 22 {( 3) ( ) 2 { ( 3) ( ) }
h a
iVar Y h h A h h
(6.12)
3 33
1
3 33
2
, 1 2 1
1 2 1
aah h
i i k
aa
Cov Y Y k h kh k h
k h hk k h
(6.13)
1A , 2A :
-
[144]
22
1 21 2 3 1
C X
(6.14)
2
2 2 2 1 1 2 3
C X
(6.15)
H h :
1
*0 exp 0,0
a
h
i
hY h G
(6.16)
* (0,0)pG :
2 21 1 1 1
1 4 4 27 724 72
(6.17)
* 2 21 1 3 1
0,0 12 2
G
(6.18)
:
2 2, , 1 , [ ] 2 [ ] 2i i c Xi i
C X X
(6.19)
. Bartlett-Lewis
,
. iu
,
2 /u m s 6-1-
:
* max( 2,0)u u (6.20)
.
(probability dry)
( probability dry
).
.
-
[145]
6.5.
. ,
.
:
.
.
.
offset Microsoft Excel, average.
,
. 15:00 20:00 .
,
.
, .
.
6-9: .
-
[146]
6-10: .
6-11: .
-
[147]
-
[148]
-
[149]
6-12: .
-
[150]
( 6-13) :
i. .
ii. .
iii. .
iv. .
v. .
vi. .
vii. (probability dry).
,
,
Bartlett-Lewis
.
-
[151]
-
[152]
6-13: .
6.6.
HYETOS-R
(2011). HYETOS-R
, R.
50 , 1000
.
6.5 .
6-14
.
-
[153]
-
[154]
6-14: 50 .
.
:
(
).
-
[155]
,
, .
Bartlett-Lewis
,
.
, 1000 .
6-15
1000 .
-
[156]
6-15: 1000 .
-
[157]
1000
50 .
.
,
. ,
HYETOS-R18.
6.7.
. MATLAB
.
. .
i. ,
6.2 polyfit MATLAB:
%% turb=xlsread('kilkis_anemos.xlsx',2,'B