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Η τεχνολογία άντλησης/ταμίευσης αποτελεί μια τεχνολογία με διαπιστωμένα υψηλή αποδοτικότητα που προσφέρει τη δυνατότητα ρύθμισης του ενεργειακού ισοζυγίου μέσω της αποθήκευσης ενέργειας σε μεγάλη κλίμακα. Η αποθήκευση ενέργειας πραγματοποιείται μέσω της άντλησης νερού σε ταμιευτήρες που βρίσκονται σε υψηλότερο υψόμετρο αξιοποιώντας ενδεχόμενη περίσσεια στην παραγωγή (όπως για παράδειγμα την περίσσεια νυχτερινής παραγωγής λόγω της μειωμένης ζήτησης). Το νερό αυτό στη συνέχεια χρησιμοποιείται για την παραγωγή υδροηλεκτρικής ενέργειας με στόχο την κάλυψη αιχμών της ζήτησης. Η περίσσεια αυτή μπορεί να ληφθεί από άλλες ανανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας, οι οποίες μπορούν να ενσωματωθούν σε ένα ενιαίο σύστημα υδροηλεκτρικών έργων-άλλων ΑΠΕ ώστε να σχηματίσουν αυτόνομα υβριδικά συστήματα ανανεώσιμης ενέργειας. Ο βέλτιστος σχεδιασμός και η διαχείριση αυτών των συστημάτων απαιτεί μια ολιστική προσέγγιση όπου θα αναπαρίσταται πιστά η αβεβαιότητα. Στα πλαίσια της εργασίας προτείνεται ένα μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο βασισμένο στη στοχαστική προσομοίωση και τη βελτιστοποίηση. Το πλαίσιο αυτό εξετάζεται σε ένα ήδη υπάρχον υδροσύστημα του ελληνικού χώρου (υδροσύστημα Αλιάκμονα), θεωρώντας συνδυασμένη λειτουργία με ένα υποθετικό αιολικό πάρκο. Για το σύνολο του συστήματος αναζητούμε το βέλτιστο σχεδιασμό ώστε να εξασφαλίσουμε την πλέον αποδοτική λειτουργία του ευρύτερου πλαισίου.

TRANSCRIPT

  • &

    - :

    : ,

    , 2013

  • - :

    : ,

    , 2013

    &

  • (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)

    , 2013, 2014 (2 )

  • [i]

    .

    .

    . , 11

  • [ii]

  • [iii]

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    ( )

    . -

    .

    ,

    .

    , .

    .

    ,

    . 2

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    , , ,

    , , , , .

    ( ) www.mqn.gr

    .

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    , ,

    .

    2013, 2014

  • [iv]

    ..................................................................................................................................................... iii

    .................................................................................................................................................... iv

    (Abstract) ...................................................................................................................................... ix

    1. ....................................................................................................................................................... 1

    1.1. ........................................................................................................................... 1

    1.2. ..................................................................................................................... 1

    1.3. ....................................................................................................... 1

    1.3. ...................................................................................................................... 2

    2. : .................... 3

    2.1. ......................................................................................................... 3

    2.1.1. ................................................................................................... 3

    2.1.2. ..................................................... 5

    2.2. : , -

    ............................................................................................................................................ 7

    2.2.1.

    ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7

    2.2.2. ................................................................................ 7

    2.2.3. ............................................................................. 8

    2.2.4. ................................................................................ 10

    2.2.5. & ..................................................................................... 11

    2.2.6. : ........ 15

    2.3. :

    .................................................................................................................................................. 15

    2.3.1. ......................................... 15

    2.3.2.

    ................................................................................................................. 17

    2.4. /: .................................................. 18

    2.4.1. ............................................................................................. 18

    2.4.2. ................... 19

    2.5. .......................................... 20

    2.5.1. ................................................................................................................... 20

    2.5.2. ................................................................. 21

  • [v]

    2.5.3. ............................................ 22

    3. : ,

    , . ......................................................................................................................... 23

    3.1. ...................................... 23

    3.2. ....................................................................... 25

    3.3. :

    ........................................................................................................................ 26

    3.4. : 28

    3.4.1. ....................................................................... 28

    3.4.2. ........................................................................................... 28

    3.4.3. ......................................................... 29

    3.4.4. / ............................. 30

    3.5. .

    ................................................................................................................................................... 32

    3.5.1. .... 32

    3.5.2. ...................................... 35

    3.6.

    -: --

    ........................................................................................................................................... 40

    3.6.1. ...... 40

    3.6.2. .................................................... 40

    3.6.3. :

    , -

    ................................................................................................................................................. 45

    3.7. .. 47

    4. ........................ 48

    4.1. : .................................................................................... 48

    4.2. .................................................................................................................... 49

    4.3. ................................................................................. 50

    4.3.1. ................................................................................................................ 50

    4.3.2. ...................................................................... 50

    4.3.3. ......................................................................................................... 50

    4.3.4. ....................................................................................................... 52

    4.3.5. ...................................................................................................................... 52

    4.3.6. ............................................................. 52

  • [vi]

    4.4. : ................... 53

    4.4.1. ............................................................................................... 55

    4.4.2. ..................................................................................................... 56

    4.4.3. ................................................................................................ 58

    4.4.4. . .......................... 59

    4.4.5. ............................................... 59

    4.4. : ........................... 62

    4.4.1. .............................................................................................................................. 62

    4.4.2. ........................................................................................................................ 63

    5. :

    ................................................................................................................................. 69

    5.1. ....................................................................................................................... 69

    5.2. Hurst-Kolmogorov............................................................................................................ 71

    5.3. ............................................................................................... 73

    5.3.1. AR(1) .............................................................................................................................. 74

    5.3.2. ....................................................................................................... 74

    5.4. ............................................................................................................... 76

    5.5. .......................................................................................................... 79

    5.5.1. .................................................................................................................... 79

    5.5.2. : ....... 82

    5.5.3. To .............................................................................................. 85

    5.5.4. ...................................................................................................... 86

    5.5.5. ................................................................................................... 87

    5.5.6. ............................................................. 89

    5.6. ........................................................ 91

    5.7. ....................................................... 92

    5.8. ......................................................................................................................... 95

    5.9. .............. 98

    5.9.1. ............................................................................................... 98

    5.9.2.

    ......................................................................................................................................... 99

    5.9.3. .................. 100

    5.9.4. ........................................................................................... 101

    5.10. ............. 101

  • [vii]

    5.11. ..................................................................... 102

    5.12. .......................................................................................... 106

    5.13. ............................... 106

    5.14. ......................................... 109

    5.15. .................................................................. 111

    5.15.1. 1: .......................................................................... 111

    5.15.2. 2: - /Sum of Generated Firm

    Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 114

    5.15.3. 2: - /Total Generated Firm

    Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 116

    5.15.4. 2-3 ....................................................................................................... 118

    5.15.5. 4: /Total Generated Firm

    Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 120

    5.16. ................... 123

    5.16.1. 1-4 .................................................................................................... 123

    5.16.2. 3-4 .................................................................................................... 125

    5.16.3. 1 ........................................................................................... 127

    5.16.4. 2 ........................................................................................... 128

    5.16.5. 3 ........................................................................................... 129

    5.16.6. 4 ........................................................................................... 130

    5.17. ...................................... 131

    6. :

    ............................................................................................................................................. 132

    6.1. .................................................................................................... 132

    6.2. .............................................................................. 134

    6.3. ............................................................. 138

    6.4. ........................ 139

    6.5. : Bartlett-Lewis ............ 140

    6.5. .................................. 145

    6.6. ............................................................ 152

    6.7. ....................................................... 157

    7. :

    ....................................................................................................................................................... 161

    7.1. ....................................................................... 161

    7.2. - ................................. 164

  • [viii]

    7.3. : ,

    ..................................................................................................................................................................... 169

    8. & ................................. 179

    8.1. ..................................................... 179

    8.2. ......... 180

    8.3. ......................... 181

    8.4. :

    .......................................................................................................................................... 181

    ......................................................................................................................... 183

    ................................................................................................................................................... 188

    / ........................................................... 188

    ................................................................................................................................................... 189

    ........................................................................................................................................................ 190

    .................................................................................................................................................... 191

    ............................................................................................ 192

    ........................................................................................................................................... 192

    ................................................................................................................................................ 196

    ................................................................................................................................................. 198

    (scripts) MATLAB ................................................................................................................. 200

    (script) R ( HYETOS-R)

    ..................................................................................................................................... 206

    ..... 225

  • [ix]

    /

    .

    (

    ).

    .

    ,

    -

    .

    .

    .

    ( ),

    .

    .

    Abstract

    Pumped storage is a proven technology with very high efficiency that offers a unique large-scale

    energy buffer. Energy storage is employed by pumping water upstream to take advantage of the

    excess of energy (e.g. during night) and next retrieving this water to generate hydro-power during

    demand peaks. This excess can be offered by other renewables, which can be integrated within

    hydroelectric systems with pumped storage facilities to formulate autonomous hybrid renewable

    energy systems (HRES). The optimal planning and management of HRES requires a holistic

    overview, where uncertainty is properly represented. In this context, a novel framework is

    proposed, based on stochastic simulation and optimization. This is tested in an existing

    hydrosystem of Greece, considering its combined operation with a hypothetical wind power

    system, for which we seek the optimal design to ensure the most beneficial performance of the

    overall scheme1.

    1 European Geosciences Union (EGU) 5th EGU Leonardo Conference Hydrofractals 2013 STAHY 13, Kos Island, Greece, 1719 October 2013: http://itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/1386/

  • [x]

  • [1]

    1.

    1.1.

    -

    .

    . ,

    .

    ,

    ( ) .

    -

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  • [2]

    .

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    1000 .

    1.3.

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  • [3]

    2. :

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    -, .

    .

    ,

    , .

    2.1.

    2.1.1.

    .

    ( ):

    ( ) ( )dS

    I t O tdt

    (2.1)

    :

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    dS

    dt: .

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    :

    i. I ,

    (, ) ().

    .

    ii. P (, ).

    :

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    ii. G,

    (

    , ).

    iii. : , R.

  • [4]

    2-1: (: 2000, , 2012)

    2-1.

    (2.1)

    ,

    :

    1t t t t t t tS S I P G E O (2.2)

    :

    1tS : t+1.

    tS : t.

    tI , tP , tG , tE , tO : o ( )

    t.

    H (2.2)

    :

    i. :

    min tS S K (2.3)

    minS K .

    ii. :

    max0 tR R (2.4)

    maxR .

  • [5]

    , ,

    (2.2).

    2.1.2.

    ,

    (, 2012).

    ().

    .

    ( ) (-).

    .

    ,

    .

    ( 2-2).

    2-2: . : (, 2008)

    :

    t t tE V H (2.5)

    :

  • [6]

    tE : t.

    tV : t.

    tH : t.

    : ,

    .

    :

    2-1: (--, 2007)

    tE tV tH

    GWh hm3 m GWh/hm4

    (2.5) - :

    I Q H n (2.6)

    nH (2.7)

    g , g .

    n

    H , nH :

    0.2725 nH

    nH

    (2.8)

    nH H (2.9)

    (fh ,h

    ) .

    (2.5),

    nH :

    0.2725 nH

    n H

    (2.10)

    n fH H h h (2.11)

    ,

    , ( )f H , -

    .

    -

    (). 0.2725 (2.8) &

    (2.10)

    ( 1n , nH H ).

  • [7]

    2.2. : ,

    -

    2.2.1.

    Mays and Tung (1992, . 8)

    , : (.)

    , (.)

    ( ), (.) .

    (hydrosystem)

    , ,

    ( et al., 2007).

    ,

    , ,

    ( , , , .)

    (, , , , .),

    .

    . ,

    ,

    , , ,

    , ,

    , ,

    , .

    (Grigg, 1996),

    .

    2.2.2.

    (simulation)

    , (Winston, 1994).

    (simulation model)

    , ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    (, 2000).

    ,

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    (forecast).

  • [8]

    : (.) (.)

    . ( 3)

    , .

    (inputs) ,

    . ,

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    .

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    ).

    ( ).

    (stochastic simulation)

    , Monte Carlo (, 2000).

    2-3: - . .

    , .

    2.2.3.

    ,

    .

  • [9]

    (decisions) (evaluations)

    ( et al., 2007).

    (optimal) (performance

    measure) .

    (optimisation).

    ,

    (optimisation),

    ,

    , ,

    1 (objective function) (control variables).

    2-4.

    2-4: ( 2012, )

    .

    ,

    . ,

    ( et al., 2007).

    (stochastic optimization).

    :

    ,

    (, 2012). -

    (simulation-optimisation) 2-5.

  • [10]

    2-5: (Fu and Hu, 1997. , 2012)

    2.2.4.

    (reliability),

    (Chow et al., 1988, . 434).

    :

    *( )P X x (2.12)

    (..

    , ) x* (-) .

    ,

    , (Koutsoyiannis, 2004).

    (

    ) (safe yield). ,

    : x*

    (.. 99%, 97%, 95%):

    * *( )P X x (2.13)

  • [11]

    n

    n ,

    :

    'na

    n

    (2.14)

    ,

    .

    2-6: . ( ).

    2.2.5. &

    (firm energy)

    .

    (, 2012). , ,

    :

    .

    .

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    .

    2-7.

  • [12]

    2-7: . 44 GWh 96% ( ).

    . ,

    , .

    ( )

    :

    ( ) . 2-8

    2006

    (, 2012).

    ,

    (, )

    ( ). ,

    ( ). ,

    . 2-2 1998

    .

    .

    ,

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    .

  • [13]

    2-2: , 1998 (: , 2012)

    (

    )

    ,

    , , ,

    .

    8353 316 40 320 1035 0 10064

    849 19428 690 0 0 138 21105

    9156 15525 725 320 1035 138 26900

    8207 23139 352 0 0 0 31698

    37 21129 0 0 0 3645 24811

    0 920 29 0 0 456 1405

    0 0 1 0 0 273 274

    985 12667 344 0 1029 3380 18406

    0 379 201 0 0 0 580

    964 12669 142 0 1029 3380 18184

    917 2060 129 205 1110 4421

    0 7277 0 0 0 15 7292

    , ,

    48 3332 13 0 824 2255 6472

    21 -380 0 0 0 0 -359

  • [14]

    2-8: 2006 (: , 2012). .

  • [15]

    2.2.6. :

    (curse of dimensionality):

    . ,

    n m

    (

    ), mn (, 2012).

    . ,

    .

    . (..

    )

    (Nalbantis and Koutsoyiannis, 1997),

    .

    .

    :

    (principle of parsimony):

    .

    -

    (, 2008).

    . ,

    .

    ,

    .

    2.3. :

    2.3.1.

    .

    ,

    .

  • [16]

    ( ) .

    ,

    .

    ,

    (ReVelle, 2000), (Wasimi and

    Kitanidis, 1983 Loaiciga and Marino, 1985 Georgakakos and Marks, 1987 Faber and Stedinger,

    2001). , ,

    , ,

    (

    ). ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    . , ,

    ,

    (Graham et al., 1986 Labadie, 1995

    Fredericks et al., 1998 Israel and Lund, 1999 Dai and Labadie, 2001).

    ,

    . ,

    Kuczera (1989), ,

    . ,

    ,

    (, & , 2007).

    ,

    (genetic algorithms)

    (fuzzy logic) (neural

    networks). ,

    (Loucks et al, 2005).

    ,

    :

    .

    .

    .

    .

    (Duan et al., 1992):

  • [17]

    (effectiveness), (

    ) .

    (efficiency), (

    , ).

    (, 2012). ,

    .

    (Althusser, 1984 , 1991).2

    2.3.2.

    ,

    .

    .

    (2) :

    1t t t tS S I O (2.15)

    .

    tO :

    t t t tO R Y Q (2.16)

    :

    tR : ( )

    .

    tY : t.

    tQ : ,

    t.

    ,

    ( minS ,K )

    ( maxR ),

    z :

    2 , .

    . . ,

    ., link: http://www.theseis.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1195&Itemid=29, , , 120, : - 2012

  • [18]

    1

    min

    max

    1

    :

    :

    , 1, 2,...,

    0

    ( , , )

    , 0

    0

    t t t t t t

    t

    t

    t t t

    t t

    Maximize z d

    st

    S S I R Y Q t n

    S S K

    R R

    f R S S d

    S Y

    d

    (2.17)

    f

    t . , (2.5) ( (2.6)) (

    ):

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    1 1

    ( ) ( ) ( )t t

    t tE Idt g n Q Q t H t dt

    (2.18)

    2 2

    1 1

    ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )t t

    t tE g n Q Q t H t dt H Q t dt H V

    (2.19)

    (2.19) (2.18) .

    V : .

    H : .

    ( ) , :

    ( , )t tE f R S (2.20)

    , ().

    (Revelle, 2000)

    (, 2012) .

    ( et

    al. 2007, 2012).

    2.4. /:

    2.4.1.

    ,

    , ,

    .

    . ()

    .

    (, .)

    .

  • [19]

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    (, 2013).

    13800 MW,

    3100 MW 1466 MW.

    (www.admie.gr)

    .

    .

    (, 2009).

    2.4.2.

    /. , ,

    .

    (, 2012). 2009 / 104

    GW (U.S. Energy Information Administration).

    H

    ( )

    .

    / Kazunogawa. 2001 Yamnashi-Ken

    , 1600 MW 19,2 18,4 hm3

    685 m (, 2011).

    Okinawa 1999 .

    / , 30 MW

    140 m (, 2011).

    / 2-9.

    Okinawa 2-10,

    Kazunogawa 2-11.

  • [20]

    2-9: /. -- (, 2013).

    2-10: / Okinawa . (upper pond) (-penstock, -powerhouse). (, 2011)

    2.5.

    2.5.1.

    , :

    fH h h (2.21)

    :

    h : .

    fh :

    .

    , :

  • [21]

    ( )f fN g h Q (2.22)

    .

    2-11: / (, 2013)

    (, , ) ,

    :

    P M Trn n n n (2.23)

    N

    hN , hN N ( )hN N fN

    .

    2.5.2.

    .

    .

    :

    fH h h (2.24)

    (2.21).

    (2.22)

    .

    (, , )

    , :

    T G Trn n n n (2.25)

  • [22]

    hN eN

    (

    ), . e hN N .

    , (, )

    65-85% ( 35-15%

    ) , ..

    2-12.

    2-12: (, 2013)

    2.5.3.

    :

    : ,

    .

    .

    .

    :

    .

    .

    ,

    :

    .

    (, 2009).

    .

  • [23]

    3. :

    , , .

    . ,

    ,

    , --

    -

    . ,

    .

    3.1. 1973

    .

    ,

    (

    )

    .

    .

    ( 1973 1980-1981).

    45%

    1980-81. ,

    1980-81.

    1986 1980-81

    25 40 ( 2008) 18 .

    2004 .

    . ,

    . ,

    ,

    . ,

    (, 2008)3.

    3-1.

    3 link: http://www.ananeotiki.gr/el/readAuthors.asp?authorID=564&page=1&textID=2739

  • [24]

    3-1: ,1861-2007 ( , ). : http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg

    .

    , .

    ,

    . ,

    (2008-2012)

    1990 ( 1995 ).

    ,

    . , :

    .

    .

    .

    (

    - ),

    4.

    , ,

    . ,

    , 20-20-20. 2020

    20% , 20%

    20% .

    4 , . , : , . & . , , 120,

    : - 2012: http://www.theseis.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1196&Itemid=29

  • [25]

    20% 2020

    .

    20% 2020,

    2009/28/ ( ),

    2020.

    ,

    , .

    ,

    . 3-2.

    3-2: (, , ). : , http://www.ypeka.gr/?tabid=285

    3.2. (

    ) .

    (sustainability) (Brundtland

    & World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),

    . , ,

    .

    . ,

    ,

    (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2009).

  • [26]

    ,

    :

    , .

    (Ediger et al.,

    2007).

    ,

    (degrowth).

    ,

    , ,

    . -

    ,

    ,

    , .5

    dcroissance

    degrowth. , a-growth

    ,

    .

    ()

    economic growth ( ,

    ) development (

    , , , .).

    (, 2012).

    3.3. :

    , .

    ,

    .

    , ,

    (rebound effect),

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    5 Latouche, S. (2003). Dcoloniser l'imaginaire: La Pense crative contre l'conomie de l'absurde, Parangon, Lyon.

  • [27]

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    , , .

    1000 ""

    ( !)

    .

    3-3: ( ) , 1960 2011. .

    2008 . :

    (http://data.worldbank.org)

    , .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . (, )

    (, 2012). ,

    ,

    6.

    3-3.

    6 , . : 11 , ( ), 2013.

  • [28]

    3.4. :

    3.4.1.

    .

    , , , (

    ) , , ,

    . , ,

    ( - /), .

    , .

    ,

    , , ,

    , ..

    3.4.2.

    ,

    , , ,

    ( ).

    .

    , , ,

    . 3-4.

    3-4: .

  • [29]

    . , (

    ). ,

    .

    , .

    ,

    ,

    , , .

    ,

    ,

    (, 2010 , 2013). .3468/2006,.129, .2, 257:

    :

    i. . ii. ,

    30%

    . iii.

    20%.

    3.4.3.

    (, ..)

    .

    ,

    ,

    (, 2013).

    .

    ( ) (

    :

    ), ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ( ,2009).

    7 http://www.desmie.gr/ape-sithya/adeiodotiki-diadikasia-kodikopoiisi-nomothesias-ape/periechomena/diadikasia-adeiodotisis/ybridikoi-stathmoi-ilektroparagogis-apo-ape/

  • [30]

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    3.4.4. /

    ( /)

    (.. ).

    .

    ,

    (, 2012). ,

    .

    /.

    .

    El Hierro (

    ) .

    .

    :

    ()

    .

    (/) .

    .

    .

    .

    :

    i. : , 1,05 MW,

    ( ) .

    , .

    , , 3,1 MW,

    .

    ii. : , 2,4 MW,

    ,

    .

    , .

  • [31]

    10,96

    GWh.

    ,

    .

    3-5.

    3-5: .

    : (http://www.ppcr.gr/Energy.aspx?C=29)

    El Hierro :

    11,5 MW 11.000

    , ,

    .

    - , 700

    m, .

    ,

    11,3 MW

    . ,

    .

    80% , 20%

    ,

    . ,

    (, 2013).

    El Hierro 3-6.

  • [32]

    3-6: El Hierro. : Clean Energy/Action Project

    3.5. .

    3.5.1.

    . , ,

    16% .

    3-7, ( )

    3% (2,6% ) .

    25 .

    , (

    6 % ). 3-8.

    . (,

    , , , )

    (80-100%),

    . 2/3 ,

    99% (Koutsoyiannis, 2011).

    , ,

    (31%). , ,

    ,

  • [33]

    3-7: 45 (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).

    3-8: 1987 2012.

    (: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf )

  • [34]

    ( ) .

    ,

    .

    (170 MW, 340

    GWh/, 500 . ).

    .

    1.200.000 m3

    . ,

    , .

    , ,

    ( )

    (

    ). ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    1.200.000 m3 , 600.000 m3,

    250.000 m3 ,

    .

    , ,

    18

    .

    250.000 m3 .

    18 ,

    200.000 m3 (8, 2013).

    3-1

    , .

    , 3-2

    .

    Scale of water resources development and sustainability:

    small is beautiful, large is great (Koutsoyiannis, 2011).

    8 , , 2013. : http://oikotrives.wordpress.com/2013/06/02/acheloos-thessalia/

  • [35]

    3-1: 8 .

    (TWh/)

    (TWh/)

    (%)

    25 25 100

    72 70 97

    55 52 95

    36 34 94

    40 35 88

    85 68 80

    180 120 67

    15 4,7 31 3-2: .

    (% )

    (%)

    10 75

    13 75

    20 30

    45 25

    12 8

    3.5.2.

    I. ,

    ( 3-12). ,

    . ,

    , .

    ,

    . 5 MW, 10 MW,

    15 MW.

    , .

    (

    ) .

    ( ),

    .

    10 MW 15 m 80 m3/s ,

    16 MW, 30 m 60 m3/s . ,

    , ( , 2013).

    , .

    (Koutsoyiannis, 2011):

  • [36]

    ;

    ;

    ;

    , ;

    .

    , (,

    ). 3-9.

    3-9: , (: , 2013).

    II.

    ,

    . (

    ) , .

    . ,

    ,

    . /

    (

    3-3).

  • [37]

    3-3: (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).

    90-95%

    Betz ( )

    59%

    10-30%

    hree junction concentrators ( )

    41,6%

    14-19%

    (

    ) 60%

    10-50%

    .

    , (

    ).

    . ,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    .

    III.

    .

    ( ) .

    .

    ( )

    . ,

    95%, .

    IV.

    . 2000-2010 ,

    , 250 ,

    437 MW. :

    : (.. )

    437 MW 250

    ;

  • [38]

    ,

    ( 3-10).

    3-10: 7400 MW (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).

    , ,

    Q , 3-11.

    ( )

    .

    ,

    .

    3-11: (: Koutsoyiannis, 2011).

  • [39]

    3-12: . (%) . 1190 km3/ (: , 1999).

  • [40]

    3.6.

    -:

    --

    3.6.1.

    (3.4)

    .

    , : .

    . , (

    ) (..

    ). , ,

    .

    /, ,

    .

    ,

    , .

    (..

    ), .

    , ,

    () / .

    3.6.2.

    3.6.2.1.

    ,

    . , ,

    ( : 3-12),

    .

    ,

    , :

    (availability of resources),

    .

    (management of resources),

    .

    , ( , , , , )

    .

    .

  • [41]

    -,

    .

    3.6.2.2.

    (, , ..)

    .

    . ( )

    .

    (risk),

    :

    11 1

    n

    RT

    (3.1)

    :

    n : .

    R : n .

    - (

    ) .

    .

    .

    3-13: . Hurst-Kolmogorov (: Koutsoyiannis et al., 2009).

  • [42]

    , (, )

    Hurst-Kolmogorov.

    . 3-13

    ( , , )

    Hurst-Kolmogorov.

    3.6.2.3.

    2.2.4.

    .

    , .

    (external constraint)

    , (objective to

    maximize).

    (safe yield), (firm

    energy). 2.

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    100% ( ).

    3.6.2.4.

    ,

    :

    ,

    .

    (

    , , , ..).

    ,

    .

    ,

    2.2. 3-14 ,

    .

    3.6.2.5. --

    :

    i. (.. )

    .

    ii. .

  • [43]

    iii. .

    iv. .

    - --

    :

    i.

    .

    ii. ,

    .

    iii. ,

    , .

    iv.

    Monte-Carlo.

    v. .

    3-15.

    H (Efstratiadis, 2012).

    3-14: ( ). (: Efstratiadis, 2012).

  • [44]

    3-15: (: Efstratiadis, 2012)

  • [45]

    3.6.3. :

    , -

    (

    )

    , ,

    .

    .

    .

    .

    (2012).

    . ,

    , ,

    .

    3-16.

    3-16: , ,

    ,

    (: , 2012).

    .

    .

  • [46]

    m

    :

    2

    (1 )/2 / 1/ 1m z (3.2)

    pz p . =6%,

    =10% =95% m =6000 (Koutsoyiannis and Economou, 2003).

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    60% ,

    43%.

    MW

    ( ) MWh .

    ,

    ( ,

    , ..). ,

    ,

    - .

    3-17: 2009 2011 (: ).

    , 2011

    (http://government.gov.gr/2012/04/09/29058/ ),

    2011 1636MW,

    1300MW ( 26%). ,

    ,

    ,

  • [47]

    .

    3-17

    (2009, 2010, 2011).

    ,

    . ,

    ( . 2/2013 )

    .

    3.7.

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    /

    -,

    .

    --

    ,

    .

    .

  • [48]

    4.

    - ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    4.1. : () .

    (,

    ) .

    (, ) ().

    , ,

    -

    .

    '

    297 km. ,

    . ,

    1950, ()

    . .

    , , ,

    .

    , , , , .

    , , ,

    , , , .

    . ,

    -.

    2,03 * 109 m3. 6.016

    km2. , , ,

    , , . ,

    ,

    . , ,

    1.300.000 .

  • [49]

    4.2. ,

    40000 ,

    (220000 ). ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    - -

    , .

    1971

    Natura 2000.

    IBA (Important Bird Areas-

    ).

    4-1: .

    4-2: : : (: http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%91%CF%81%CF%87%CE%B5%CE%AF%CE%BF:Thessaloniki_Satellite_View.jpg ).

  • [50]

    4.3.

    4.3.1.

    13 441 km2.

    , , 1991 569 684

    2001 596 891 , 4,8% ( 2001

    , 2001

    1991).

    .

    ,

    , , ,

    , .

    (

    ), ( ), ( )

    ( ).

    ( -, , ,

    ).

    4.3.2.

    2 000 . -

    .

    (2 128 ), (2 111 )

    (1688 ), (2524 ), (2052 ) (2

    180).

    , , ,

    , . ,

    .

    .

    , ,

    , .

    , , , , , ,

    , , ,

    .

    4.3.3.

    ,

    .

    .

    600 1 000 mm, 1200

    mm. -.

  • [51]

    14.5 17C,

    .

    4-1: (: , http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/782/ )

    (C) 12,1 12,9 12,5 14,8

    (C) -21,4 -16,8 -22,4 -9,0

    (C) 40,8 42,2 41,6 37,8

    (mm) 645,7 507,6 555,5 540,0

    (%) 69,2 63,8 65,0 64,3

    () 3,9 3,8 3,8 3,7

    85,3 91,2 93,4 59,8

    27,2 18,7 19,6 5

    0,4 0,4 0,9 0,1

    16,3 22,4 13,0 5,6

    4-3: (: ,

    http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/782/ )

  • [52]

    4.3.4.

    (8813 km2),

    (2133 km2), (863

    km2) (815 km2). ,

    600 km2, (

    ), , (

    ), .

    . 4-3

    .

    ,

    ( .., 2008).

    4.3.5.

    , ,

    , .

    (1443 km2), (871 km2),

    (386 km2), (353 km2), (292 km2), (252 km2),

    (178 km2) (117 km2).

    ,

    .

    4.3.6.

    (

    ) ,

    1 000 MW.

    (, , ), 1334 hm3

    (, 2002), 2001, 400600 hm3, ,

    .

    12 - 8090 hm3

    , .

    ( ), .

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ( 2007

    2013). ,

  • [53]

    .

    4.4. :

    ,

    . ,

    , . .

    , .

    , .

    . ( )

    .

    4-4 , 4-5

    .

    4-4: . , , , .

    (: , 2008).

    2006

    12695 MW.

    3.060 MW, 24%

    13% .

    4-6

    1953 2006,

    .

  • [54]

    4-5: (: , - ).

    4-6: 1953 2006 (: , 2008).

  • [55]

    4.4.1.

    45 km .

    , , , ,

    , , ,

    .

    2244 hm3,

    1220 hm3. 1998-2007 1373 hm3

    18% 10 .

    5800 km2 74 km2.

    291,0 m 293,0 m.

    634 m, 9,7 m 1600 m3/s.

    . 4-7.

    4-7: .

    112 m. 300 m,

    10 m 297 m. 3 ,

    12,9 x 5,5 m 1.375 m3/sec .

    4,6 km, 8,5 m

    7,5 m 345 m3/sec.

    , , :

    : 3 x 125 MW , : 15750 V : Francis : 146,5 m : 125 /min : 3,2 m3/kWh

  • [56]

    ,

    .

    , 84 m 28 m, 86 m

    7 m.

    4-8: .

    4.4.2.

    20 km

    . , ,

    , , , ,

    .

    99 hm3

    18 hm3. 4,3 km2. 146,0 m,

    141,8 m 147,0 m.

    , 490 m,

    7,5 m 620 m3/s. 88,0 m

    84,0 m. ,

    .

    1.620.000 m3.

    82 m, 220 m

    12 m. 7,2 m x 9,0 m

    , .

  • [57]

    137,0 m 1600 m3/s.

    ( ) ,

    5,6 m x 10,9 m 22,0 m.

    . 126,0 m.

    , ( ).

    160,80 m 7,0 m.

    134,05 m 73,0 m.

    .

    ,

    ,

    :

    : 3 x 105 MW : 3 x 108 MW : 15750 V : Francis : 143000 HP : 62 m : 125 /min : 7,2 m3/kWh : 5,3 m3/kWh

    . 3,50 / 3,00 m,

    309 m 100 m3/sec.

    :

    : 1985.

    : 1986.

    : 1985.

    4-9: .

  • [58]

    4.4.3.

    8 km .

    , , , ,

    , , .

    , ,

    53 . m3 10 hm3. 2,6 km2.

    85,5 m, 81,0 m 89,0 m.

    , 496 m,

    7,2 m / 8,5 m 600 m3/s.

    42,5 m 37,6 m.

    ,

    .

    , 1.450.000 m3.

    52 m, 205 m

    15 m. 7,0 m x 8,0 m

    , .

    77,0 m 1600 m3/s. (

    ) , 4,8 m

    x 9,3 m 17,9 m.

    . 69,5 m.

    , ( ).

    59,0 m 6,0 m.

    74,4 m 42,5 m.

    . ,

    , :

    : 3 x 55 MW : 15750 V : Francis : 75700 HP : 42 m : 125 /min : 10,0 m3/kWh

    ,

    . 53,0 m,

    37,6 m 90 m3/s.

    :

    : 1985.

    : 1985.

  • [59]

    4-10: .

    4.4.4. .

    (920 kW . , 3 x 3,6 MW

    ) ( )

    .

    4-11: . & .

    4.4.5.

    .

    ( )

    :

    330 GWh .

    .

    .

    .

    .

  • [60]

    .

    21,9 km2, 412 hm3.

    403 m 403,5 m. H

    4-12.

    4-12: (: , 2009).

    , .

    ,

    . ,

    ( - )

    140 . m3 ,

    .

    .

    .

    ,

    , 30 GWh .

    ,

    (,

    2008). 152 MW

    , , ,

    , 430 GWh. , ,

    ,

    , 200 GWh .

    . ,

    , 8,0 Km 45 km

    . (

    4-13). 504,0 m,

    500,0 m 450,0 m.

    , 75 W

    , 2,0 W,

  • [61]

    . /

    .

    4-13: (: , 2008).

    ,

    , .

    ( , 2008):

    :

    820.00 hm3, ,

    ,

    .

    (1985), () ,

    115.00 m .

    , (5) (), ,

    -, , , ,

    . 35%

    50% , 16%

    ( )

    . 40% .

    1660.00 hm3

    ( ),

    ,

    .

  • [62]

    .

    4-14

    (1985).

    4-14: (, , , ) , (: , 2008).

    4.4. :

    4.4.1.

    , ,

    , .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    , .

    . ,

    , kWh

    .

  • [63]

    :

    : .

    :

    .

    :

    .

    :

    .

    : .

    :

    10 m 4 m/s.

    5,5-6 m/s.

    .

    .

    .

    1000 m ,

    -10 m.

    500 m .

    ,

    ( ) 6 m/s.

    ,

    (http://penteli.meteo.gr/meteosearch/map.asp )

    9 ( )

    (http://aims.cres.gr/grwind150/viewer.htm

    http://www.cres.gr/kape/datainfo/maps.htm ).

    4.4.2.

    ,

    .

    , :

    i. .

    ii. .

    iii. .

    iv. .

    v. .

    9 : http://www.rae.gr/site/categories_new/about_rae/intro.csp

  • [64]

    4-15.

    .

    4-15: .

    4-17.

    . 4-16 .

    4-16: .

  • [65]

    4-17: .

    ,

    ,

    .

    160 km 60 km

    ,

    .

    . ,

    ( 1650 m 1219 m 1494 m 1490

    m 831 m) .

    , (1607 m).

    (),

    . (860 m)

    (1197 m), ( 713

    m, 745 m, ..) .

    , ,

    .

  • [66]

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    . .

    ,

    . .

    , ,

    .

    (

    ). ,

    . ,

    .

    4-18

    .

    4-19 .

    4-18: .

  • [67]

    4-19: . .

    ( 4-20).

    (5-8 m/s). ,

    .

    .

    1,4 % ,

    (

    EWEA).

    ( 2010) ,

    32,3% 24,5%, 6,9%, .

    6,2% 4,5%. 84323

    MW.

    ,

    33% 2007 2010 2010,

    ,

    32 . .

  • [68]

    4-20: (: http://www.westenergy.gr/?page_id=238 )

  • [69]

    5. :

    .

    .

    ,

    . ,

    :

    .

    5.1.

    .

    .

    . ( )X t

    1 2, ,..., tX X X , t

    (..

    ).

    :

    i. :

    ( ) [ ( )]t E X t (5.1)

    ii. ( ):

    ( ) [ ( )]t Var X t (5.2)

    2[ ( )] [( ( ) ( )) ]Var X t E X t t (5.3)

    iii. , (lag) :

    ( ; ) cov[ ( ), ( )]t X t X t (5.4)

    cov[ ( ), ( )] [( ( ) ( ))( ( ) ( ))]X t X t X t t X t t (5.5)

    iv. :

    cov[ ( ), ( )]( ; )

    [ ( )] [ ( )]

    X t X tt

    Var X t Var X t

    (5.6)

  • [70]

    -1 +1 .

    .

    . :

    . 5-1

    (:

    , , 2012).

    5-1: .

    ,

    . : -,

    . :

    i. ( )X t , ( )Y t :

    ( ) cov[ ( ), ( )]XYC X t Y t (5.7)

    ii. :

    cov[ ( ), ( )]( )

    [ ( )] [ ( )]XY

    X t Y tr

    Var X t Var Y t

    (5.8)

    ,

    (0)XYr .

  • [71]

    10.

    5.2. Hurst-Kolmogorov

    Hurst-Kolmogorov. Hurst (1951)

    . urst

    .

    olmogorov (1940)

    ,

    (Simple Scaling Stochastic model) (Fractal

    Gaussian Noise).

    , .

    .

    5-2 . 5-3

    ,

    .

    5-2: 5 25 (: , 2004).

    Hurst H o [0,1].

    urst [0,0.5] -

    . urst

    [0.5,1]

    . Hurst 0.5

    10 http://itia.ntua.gr/courses/stochwatres/index.html

  • [72]

    .

    5-3: (: , 2004).

    , .

    Hurst. Hurst .

    .

    Hurst-Kolmogorov

    . ,

    ( , 2004).

    , :

    (, 2012) ,

    .

    Hurst

    . ,

    11 (2012). , Hurst

    , ( )

    .

    ,

    .

    11 : http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/1300/

  • [73]

    5.3.

    ,

    .

    ,

    (, 2013).

    -

    (

    ).

    5-4.

    5-4: - (: , 2012, ).

    :

    i. AR(1) Markov,

    .

    ii. , .

  • [74]

    5.3.1. AR(1)

    (i)

    (i-1). :

    1i i iX a X V (5.9)

    iV

    ( ).

    (autoregression) Markov AR(1).

    AR(1) ,

    .

    a , [ ( ), ( )]i iV Var V :

    ( ) (1 )i XV a (5.10)

    2 2( ) (1 )i XVar V a (5.11)

    1a (5.12)

    :

    : .

    2 : .

    1 : .

    ,

    . ,

    , , :

    ( ) ke (5.13)

    5.3.2.

    , Hurst-Kolmogorov.

    ,

    (Fractional Gaussian Noise, FGN) (Mandelbrot, 1965).

    iX , 1,2,...i .

    [ ]iE X , cov[ , ]j i i jX X ,

    0[ , ] /j i i j jcorr X X ( 0, 1, 2,...)j 0 (,

    2013).

    k (

    1) iX . :

  • [75]

    ( )

    ( 1) 1

    1 ikki i

    l i k

    X Xk

    (5.14)

    ( )[ ]kiE X .

    j . :

    ( ) ( )( ) ( )

    H

    k l

    i d j

    kX X

    l

    , 0 1H

    (5.15)

    d , i , j , k l

    H Hurst. 1i j l

    :

    ( ) 2 2

    0 0

    k Hk (5.16)

    , :

    ( ) ( )

    ( 1) 1

    ikk k

    i i

    l i k

    Z Xi kX

    (5.17)

    :

    ( )[ ]kiE Z k (5.18)

    ( ) ( ) 2

    0 0[ ]k k H

    iVar Z k (5.19)

    ( ) ( ) 1/2

    0( )k k (5.20)

    , ( )k

    iX ( )k

    iZ

    k :

    2 2 2( ) 1 / 2 1 / 2H H Hk

    j j j j j (5.21)

    :

    ( ) 2 2(2 1)k Hj j H H j (5.22)

    :

    2

    [ ]Var Xn

    (5.23)

    Hurst-Kolmogorov :

    2

    2 2[ ]

    HVar X

    n

    (5.24)

    .

  • [76]

    5.4. (

    10 ),

    .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    ( , 2004, .., 2005). ,

    (2011), ,

    .

    :

    ,

    , ,

    .

    .

    ,

    Hurst,

    .

    ,

    :

    ) ,

    , ,

    ) ,

    .

    ,

    () (

    ), .

    .

    (, ),

    ,

    , .

    ,

    . ,

    . , ,

  • [77]

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    (, 2012).

    ,

    ,

    .

    SMA. ,

    ARMA FGN

    (Koutsoyiannis, 2013):

    1/

    0[1 ]j j (5.25)

    , .

    ,

    .

    5-5: = 1 , .

    = 0, de l' Hospital, (5.25) :

    0 exp( )j j (5.26)

    >1, (5.25) FGN,

    :

  • [78]

    0

    1:

    (1 1/ )(1 1/ 2 )

    (5.27)

    0 [0, 1] (5.25)

    ARMA FGN. 5-5 (5.25) ,

    =1. =0, (5.25) ARMA,

    .

    0 =2, FGN .

    , .

    , Hurst FGN

    (, , 2005).

    . ,

    ( )

    . 5-6

    .

    5-6: . .

    .

    .

    .

    .

  • [79]

    5.5.

    5.5.1.

    -

    (

    ) . (...).

    , (Decision Support Systems, DSS)

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    -

    (Dreyfus and Dreyfus, 1986 Watkins and McKinney, 1995).

    (.

    Watkins and McKinney, 1995):

    ( ,

    , )

    (

    )

    -

    ( ,

    , .)

    .

    , ,

    , (,

    , , , ),

    . ,

    . :

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

  • [80]

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    ,

    .

    , .

    ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    (, , 2002).

    --

    .

    (, , .),

    , ,

    . ,

    , ,

    , .

    ,

    , ,

    . ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

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    5-7 :

    1:

    , ,

    , .

    ,

    .

    2: ,

    , . ,

    , ,

  • [81]

    .

    , ,

    , ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    5-7: (: , , 2007).

    3: ,

    . ,

    , .

    4: , ,

    ,

    , .

    ,

    , ( simplex).

    ,

    .

    , ,

    , .

    .

    , (

    ).

  • [82]

    5: ,

    (, , , .).

    6: ,

    .

    ,

    .

    (, , 2007).

    ,

    12.

    5.5.2. :

    . ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    , , ,

    ,

    , .

    5-8 ,

    :

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    5-9

    .

    12 : , http://itia.ntua.gr/el/softinfo/4/

  • [83]

    5-8: , .

    5-9: , .

  • [84]

    :

    Reservoirs (): . ,

    .

    Rivers (): .

    Aqueducts (): .

    Turbines (): .

    .

    Pumps ():

    .

    /.

    Junctions (): . .

    Targets (): (, , , ..).

    . 5-10 :

    .

    5-10:

    :

    ( )

    .

  • [85]

    5.5.3. To

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    , .

    :

    i. .

    ii. (.. -

    ).

    iii.

    .

    iv. .

    ( )

    .

    , ( )s t , ,

    (

    ) :

    *

    i i i is k a k b s (5.28)

    ik i , k

    , ia ib [0, 1], *

    is

    - . ia ib

    .

    (5.28) :

    *

    i is b s (5.29)

    (5.29) , (5.28)

    ia , :

    ii

    ka

    k

    (5.30)

    .

    (5.28)

    . 5-11.

    ,

    .

  • [86]

    5.5.4.

    ,

    ,

    , . ,

    ,

    , .

    (steady-state).

    ,

    ( ) .

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    . ,

    ,

    , ,

    , , .

    , (terminating)

    (, , 2007).

    ,

    .

    ,

    . ,

    5-11:

    (: ,

    , 2007)

  • [87]

    animation (animation tab)

    5-12.

    5.5.5.

    , (

    ) . ,

    ,

    .

    . :

    1

    m

    j j

    j

    F w f

    (5.31)

    jf jw ,

    . ,

    ,

    . , ,

    ( ,

    ).

    5-12: .

  • [88]

    ,

    ,

    (, , 2007).

    1 2[ , ,..., ]nx x x x

    F :

    1

    min max

    min ( ) ( )

    [ , ]

    m

    j j

    j

    F x w f x

    x x x

    (5.32)

    13 5-

    13.

    5-13: (: , , 2007).

    .

    , .

    13 :

    , (, , 2007): http://itia.ntua.gr/softwaredownload/4/2/software/Hydronomeas_theory.pdf

  • [89]

    5.5.6.

    2,

    ( , )i j :

    ij ij ij ijE V H (5.33)

    . ,

    H

    0.2725 GWh/hm4. 1

    , nH H .

    ( )H .

    ( , )i iH

    , .

    .

    :

    inlet outletH Level Level (5.34)

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    , .

    , ijPI

    MW :

    ij ijE PI (5.35)

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    :

    i. .

    ii. [0,1]ije

    .

    5-14 , 5-15

    .

  • [90]

    5-14: (, GWh).

    5-15: .

  • [91]

    5.6. ,

    .

    ,

    ( )iE t .

    :

    1 2( ) ( ( ), ( ),..., ( ))nJ T E t E t E t

    (5.36)

    n o .

    .

    a ( (2.13)),

    :

    1 2( ) ( ( ), ( ),..., ( ))nJ E t E t E t (5.37)

    (2012)

    :

    i. Total Generated Firm Power ( ):

    .

    : (a.)

    . (b.)

    . :

    1

    ( ) ( )n

    i

    i

    J a E t

    (5.38)

    ii. Sum of Generated Firm Power ( ):

    . : (a.)

    . (b.) .

    :

    1

    ( ) ( ( ))n

    i

    i

    J a E t

    (5.39)

    a Scenario

    Options Energy. 5-16.

    .

  • [92]

    5.7.

    . Total Generated Firm Power

    Sum of Generated Firm Power

    .

    .

    ( ... ),

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    ( , 2013).

    5-17 .

    (

    ).

    .

    5-16:

    .

  • [93]

    5-17: . (: , 2013).

    ,

    :

    ) 14 . ,

    12-2013,

    -49%- . ,

    2014, 51%.

    ) 30%

    , 1400MW , 500MW , 500W

    . 2015.

    ) 2015

    2016.

    :

    14 ( ) 100% .., .

    ().

  • [94]

    (

    )

    .

    .

    .

    .

    (

    ) -

    .

    -

    :

    :

    . , ,

    .

    :

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    :

    fast track

    .

    : --

    .

    :

    , ( , 2013).

    ,

    15.

    15 : . , , , .

  • [95]

    .

    5.8. ,

    . ( ) ,

    . 5-1

    .

    5-1: .

    / [km2]

    1 4986,00

    2 814,00

    3 172,10

    4 67,98

    5 . 18,69

    ,

    .

    . :

    t , tS .

    P mm.

    E mm.

    O ,

    powerV .

    , tH .

    , tI hm3.

    ,

    ,

    :

    i. - ( )S f H

    t .

    ii. P

    (50km2) tP hm3.

    iii. E

    hm3.

    iv. S hm3.

    hm3 :

  • [96]

    ,t t t power tI S P E V (5.40)

    5-18

    .

    5-18: - (: ).

    :

    1,130335,448 ( 270)S H (5.41)

    5-19

    .

    .

    5-19

    .

    tI (hm3) I (mm), :

    1000 /tI I A (5.42)

    A km2.

    ,

    .

    .

    (

    ), .

  • [97]

    5-19: .

  • [98]

    5.9.

    5.9.1.

    ,

    ( ):

    i. .

    .

    ii. 10.

    iii. .

    iv. .

    .

    :

    1. (1) .

    2. (2) (

    ) .

    3. (3) .

    5-20

    .

    5-20: .

    ,

    . ,

    .

    . .

  • [99]

    5.9.2.

    .

    .

    63,36 hm3/. 12 ,

    5,28 hm3/. 5-21

    .

    381,4 hm3/.

    5-2 (, 2012):

    5-2: .

    [%] 5 11 23,6 30,2 26,4 3,8 100

    [hm3] 19,07 41,954 90,0104 115,1828 100,6896 14,4932 381,4

    5-22.

    5-22: .

    5-21:

    .

  • [100]

    5.9.3.

    ()

    (...)

    . 4

    .

    620MW, :

    I 70MW.

    II 125MW.

    III 125MW.

    IV 300MW.

    I 1959, II 125MW

    1962, III 1965 IV

    1973.

    5-23

    .

    5-23: .

    65 hm3/,

    5,42 hm3/.

  • [101]

    5.9.4.

    (. .: 40754) :

    ,

    4,5 m3/sec. 5-24

    .

    5.10.

    /

    .

    :

    i. 1: .

    - .

    ii. 2:

    , (target) . Sum of

    Generated Firm Power.

    .

    . ,

    4,5 ../. (. 22).

    2013

    . . ,

    60.000.000 .. (. 26).

    5-24:

    .

  • [102]

    iii. 3:

    , (target) . Total

    Generated Firm Power.

    iv. 4:

    .

    .

    .

    .

    - ,

    ,

    .

    , 2 & 3

    (2)

    (3). 5-26 5-28

    .

    5.11. -

    . 5-25

    .

    5-25: .

    (components)

    .

  • [103]

    5-26: 1 ( ).

  • [104]

    5-27: 2 3. , (target) . Sum of Generated Firm Power Total Generated Firm Power. .

  • [105]

    5-28: 4 ( ).

  • [106]

    5.12.

    -

    .

    .

    .

    8h/.

    , 33% .

    :

    i. ( , )H Q ( , )H :

    .

    ii. 33% , 67%.

    .

    (reduction factors),

    1 =0,67 2 =0,33. :

    1 2 1 (5.43)

    .

    ,

    .

    5.13.

    .

    , (144,5m)

    (Head).

    ( m3)

    (Discharge) m3/s :

    100024 3600 31

    powerVQ

    (5.44)

    ( , )H Q

    5-29. monthE ( mWh)

    ( , )H :

    100 month

    power

    E

    V Head

    (5.45)

    5-30.

  • [107]

    5-29: (,Q)

    5-30: (,)

    .

    , 0,23.

    ,

    . 5-3 5-4.

    , ,

    SpCon ( m3/kWh) :

    1100

    SpCon Head

    (5.46)

    5-5.

  • [108]

    5-3:

    m3/sec .

    (m3/kWh) 3,2 7,2 10,5

    (MW) 120 105 55

    1 (m3/sec) 107 210 160

    2 (m3/sec) 107 210 160

    3 (m3/sec) 107 210

    (m3/sec) 320 630 321 5-4:

    m3/sec

    (m3/kWh) 5,3

    - (MW) 105

    1 (m3/sec) 154

    2 (m3/sec) 154

    3 (m3/sec) 154

    (m3/sec) 461 5-5:

    Head [m] 146,5 62 42 Head [m] 62

    [m3/kWh] 3,2 7,2 10,5

    [m3/kWh] 5,3

    Psi [kWh/m3/m] 0,2133106 0,224014 0,2267574 Psi [kWh/m3/m] 0,3043214

    . 3 3 2 . 3

    [MW] 120 105 55 [MW] 105

    [MW] 360 315 110 [MW] 315

    5-31 -

    .

    5-31:

    ,

    .

  • [109]

    5.14. 5.10

    .

    :

    i. ( ,

    , , ,

    , ).

    ii.

    .

    iii.

    (5.31).

    ( 2.2.5).

    .

    iv. .

    .

    v. .

    .

    (plateau) . ,

    . , ,

    .

    5-32

    .

    98,84%, .

    5-32: .

  • [110]

    5-33 .

    (

    ).

    () : Used control variables.

    -

    .

    16 (2012).

    16 : http://itia.ntua.gr/el/docinfo/1293/

    5-33:

    .

  • [111]

    5.15.

    5.15.1. 1:

    1 .

    .

    .

    Microsoft Excel small.

    1000 .

    Total

    Generated Firm Power.

    ,

    .

    12,45 GWh,

    99,12%.

    .

    .

    [99.12, 12.45]

  • [112]

    [99.17, 8.21]

    [99.38, 4.63]

  • [113]

    5-34, 5-35, 5-36, 5-37: 1.

    (12,45 GWh 27,34

    GWh).

    . ,

    ,

    .

    Total Generated Firm Power Sum of Generated Firm Power

    ,

    2, 3 .

    [99.03, 27.34]

  • [114]

    5.15.2. 2: - /Sum of Generated Firm

    Power

    [99.78, 12.09]

    [98.88, 72.43]

  • [115]

    5-38, 5-39, 5-40, 5-41: 2.

    [99.87, 2.64]

    [99.07, 87.84]

  • [116]

    5.15.3. 2: - /Total Generated Firm

    Power

    [99.47, 12.87]

    [98.75, 71.93]

  • [117]

    5-42, 5-43, 5-44, 5-45: 3.

    [99.82, 2.22]

    [99.08, 84.65]

  • [118]

    5.15.4. 2-3

    2 3,

    .

  • [119]

    5-46, 5-47, 5-48, 5-49: 2-3.

  • [120]

    , Total

    Generated Firm Power

    ,

    . Sum of Generated Firm Power

    Total Generated Firm Power

    ( ) , Total Generated

    Firm Power .

    5.7

    . ,

    ( ).

    Total Generated Firm Power.

    5.15.5. 4: /Total Generated Firm

    Power

    .

    .

    .

    [99.61, 13.15]

  • [121]

    [98.84, 72.43]

    [99.91, 3.84]

  • [122]

    5-50, 5-51, 5-52, 5-53: 4.

    . ,

    , . ,

    .

    [98.84, 89.96]

  • [123]

    5.16.

    5.16.1. 1-4

  • [124]

    5-54, 5-55, 5-56, 5-57: 1-4.

  • [125]

    5.16.2. 3-4

  • [126]

    5-58, 5-59, 5-60, 5-61: 3-4.

  • [127]

    5.16.3. 1

    5-62, 5-63: 1.

  • [128]

    5.16.4. 2

    5-64, 5-65: 2.

  • [129]

    5.16.5. 3

    5-66, 5-67: 3.

  • [130]

    5.16.6. 4

    5-68, 5-69: 4.

  • [131]

    5.17. ,

    . , ,

    -.

    .

    3 4,

    . 5-70

    , .

    5-70: 3, 4.

    -

    .

    ,

    .

    .

  • [132]

    6. :

    . ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    .

    6.1. ,

    ,

    (6-9 ..) .

    13 . 1888

    .

    ,

    .

    , . ,

    .

    -

    .

    ,

    . .

    , .

    ,

    ,

    .

    (, 2012).

    ,

    ( 6-1). ,

    .

    .

    6-2

    ().

  • [133]

    6-1: (: , 2013)

    6-2: (: )

  • [134]

    (

    ) ,

    ( , , , ),

    .

    6-3.

    6-3: (: Enercon)

    ,

    , ( ), ( ),

    (

    ) (

    .

    6.2.

    ,

    .

    .

    6-4

    .

    , .

    .

    .

    :

    160,593

    27C

    (6.1)

    Betz.

    . 6-4

  • [135]

    .

    .

    6-4: .

    :

    6 5 4 3 2y 0,0021x 0,175x 5,2109x 66,301x 300,76x 441,72x (6.2)

    6-1.

    .

    .

    -126/7,5 MW/38 Enercon.

    (2012),

    :

    .

    6-5 .

  • [136]

    Wind speed [m/s]

    Power [kW]

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 55 0,263

    4 175 0,352

    5 410 0,423

    6 760 0,453

    7 1250 0,47

    8 1900 0,478

    9 2700 0,477

    10 3750 0,483

    11 4850 0,47

    12 5750 0,429

    13 6500 0,381

    14 7000 0,329

    15 7350 0,281

    16 7500 0,236

    17 7580 0,199

    18 7580 0,168

    19 7580 0,142

    20 7580 0,122

    21 7580 0,105

    22 7580 0,092

    23 7580 0,08

    24 7580 0,071

    25 7580 0,063

    6-5: -126/7,5 MW/38 Enercon

    6-1:

    -126/7,5 MW/38

  • [137]

    6-2 .

    6-2: -126/7,5 MW/38 (: , 2012)

    (

    ) (135 m).

    :

    http://www.enercon.de/en-en/66.htm

  • [138]

    6.3. km/h,

    .

    (hub height). ,

    .

    ( , 1999):

    2 02

    1 1 0

    ln( / )

    ln( / )

    z zu

    u z z

    (6.3)

    1u , 2u 1z 2z 0z

    . (6.3) ,

    6-3.

    6-3: .

    31/10/2011 1/11/2011

    z1 [m] 10 5

    z2 [m] 135 135

    z0 [m] 0,1 0,1

    1,565 1,842

    ,

    0,1m. 6-6

    .

    6-6:

    1,565 1,842.

    . 10/10/2006 15:00

    31/12/2012 23:50.

  • [139]

    6.4. (6.3)

    1/6 kWh. 2u

    m/s 2( )P u kW (6.3)

    kWh :

    2( ) / 6tenE P u (6.4)

    houru m/s, kWh

    :

    ( ) 1hour hourE P u (6.5)

    6-

    7. 6-8

    .

    6-7: .

    6-8: .

  • [140]

    . 6-4.

    Sum (10 minutes) [kWh] 34528516,431

    Sum (Hour) [kWh] 29186649,753

    .

    .

    6.5. :

    Bartlett-Lewis

    Bartlett-Lewis (RBLRPM),

    .

    ,

    ( )

    (Bartlett-Lewis)

    . Bartlett-Lewis,

    Bartlett Lewis,

    .

    ,

    (, 2011).

    (2013) .

    BLRPM (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1987a, . 279,

    , 2011):

    1. Poisson17 ,

    , it . st

    .

    17 Poisson , nt ,

    nt ,

    ( ) [ ] 1 , 0tF t P t t e t . nt n

    () 1( ) ( ) , 0

    ( 1)!n

    tn

    t

    ef t t t

    n

    , x

    6-4:

  • [141]

    2. Poisson, , ,

    , ijt ,

    , i . Poisson , BLRPM

    . , cijt ,

    .

    3. , i ,

    , i , ,

    .

    4. , ijw , ,

    n .

    , Poisson t , t

    ( )

    ( ) , 0,1,2,...!

    t xe tP x x

    x

    Poisson ,

    nt ( 1988, 2011).

  • [142]

    5. , (,

    ), ijX .

    , ,

    RBLRPM, ,

    , ,

    , ( )in , , i .

    , , ( )in ,

    a , (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1988,

    .284):

    [ ]a

    E n

    , 2

    [ ]a

    Var nv

    , 1a (6.6)

    ( )in ,

    ,

    , a . ,

    , 1a , RBLRPM,

    .

    , a , , ,

    RBLRPM

    , .

    ,

    ,

    Bartlett-Lewis. , 1/

    1/ ,

    ,

    , 1/ in , . ,

    ,

    ,

    (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1988, . 285).

  • [143]

    , Rodriguez-Iturbe et al.

    :

    i

    in

    , i

    in

    (6.7)

    , i i ,

    , i , in . , RBLRPM

    .

    Bartlett-Lewis, ,

    (, ), X ,

    , X . , , C ,

    :

    1C

    (6.8)

    , C

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    :

    , , , , , X (6.9)

    , ( )iY h ,

    , , h :

    ( )

    ( 1)( ) , 1,2,...

    ihh

    ii h

    Y Y s ds i

    (6.10)

    BLRPM 1 2 ,

    , ( ( ) 0)iP Y h , ,

    ( )iY h , h , k (Rodriguez-Iturbe et

    al., 1987, . 285):

    1 ( / )1

    h

    i XY h

    (6.11)

    2 3 3 2 3 31 22 {( 3) ( ) 2 { ( 3) ( ) }

    h a

    iVar Y h h A h h

    (6.12)

    3 33

    1

    3 33

    2

    , 1 2 1

    1 2 1

    aah h

    i i k

    aa

    Cov Y Y k h kh k h

    k h hk k h

    (6.13)

    1A , 2A :

  • [144]

    22

    1 21 2 3 1

    C X

    (6.14)

    2

    2 2 2 1 1 2 3

    C X

    (6.15)

    H h :

    1

    *0 exp 0,0

    a

    h

    i

    hY h G

    (6.16)

    * (0,0)pG :

    2 21 1 1 1

    1 4 4 27 724 72

    (6.17)

    * 2 21 1 3 1

    0,0 12 2

    G

    (6.18)

    :

    2 2, , 1 , [ ] 2 [ ] 2i i c Xi i

    C X X

    (6.19)

    . Bartlett-Lewis

    ,

    . iu

    ,

    2 /u m s 6-1-

    :

    * max( 2,0)u u (6.20)

    .

    (probability dry)

    ( probability dry

    ).

    .

  • [145]

    6.5.

    . ,

    .

    :

    .

    .

    .

    offset Microsoft Excel, average.

    ,

    . 15:00 20:00 .

    ,

    .

    , .

    .

    6-9: .

  • [146]

    6-10: .

    6-11: .

  • [147]

  • [148]

  • [149]

    6-12: .

  • [150]

    ( 6-13) :

    i. .

    ii. .

    iii. .

    iv. .

    v. .

    vi. .

    vii. (probability dry).

    ,

    ,

    Bartlett-Lewis

    .

  • [151]

  • [152]

    6-13: .

    6.6.

    HYETOS-R

    (2011). HYETOS-R

    , R.

    50 , 1000

    .

    6.5 .

    6-14

    .

  • [153]

  • [154]

    6-14: 50 .

    .

    :

    (

    ).

  • [155]

    ,

    , .

    Bartlett-Lewis

    ,

    .

    , 1000 .

    6-15

    1000 .

  • [156]

    6-15: 1000 .

  • [157]

    1000

    50 .

    .

    ,

    . ,

    HYETOS-R18.

    6.7.

    . MATLAB

    .

    . .

    i. ,

    6.2 polyfit MATLAB:

    %% turb=xlsread('kilkis_anemos.xlsx',2,'B