The world in 2050 – the contribution of model-based scenarios Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi and Elmar Kriegler

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Existing conventions

(targets for next 40 years)

SDGs

How can we achieve them? How can we achieve them simultaneously?

Eridication of Poverty Prevent dangerous climate change Provide access to food Halt biodiversity loss

Answering those questions difficult • Uncertainty • Synergies and trade-offs • Time / inertia • Different pathways

Model-based scenario analysis

How to achieve a (more) sustainable world in 2050

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)

• Interaction of human system and environmental system

• Integration across different issues

• Focused on decisions processes (assessment)

• Originally developed to evaluate climate policy –

• more and more used to look into linkages between environmental issues development topics

• Important examples: IMAGE (PBL), REMIND (PIK), MESSAGE (IIASA)

Human system

Earth system

Economy Population Technology

Agriculture

Land use

Energy use

Emissions

Ecosystem dynamics

Climate change

Pollution

Biogeochemical cycles

Env. impacts

Driv

ers

Reso

urce

use

In

teracti

on

Earth

syste

m

How did we analyse this?

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012

Sustainable

history

goals

Expected trend

Challenge

Trans- formative action

Short-term implications

time

• Focused on internationally agreed upon objectives

• Model analysis (integrated assessment); three alternative paths

• Combined with focus on governance

• Integrated scenarios for land, biodiversity, energy, land, water and nutrients

Earlier studies looking into wide range of sustainable development issues

Rio+20, 30mei 2012

Some examples:

Shared socio-economic scenarios (cooperation PIK, IIASA, PBL, PNNL, FEEM, AIM and others)

Global Energy Outlook projections (IIASA, PBL)

Roads from Rio+20 study (PBL)

UNEP’s Global Environmental Outlook

02-11-2011 | Jasper van Vliet

6

Example of PBL’s Rio+20 report

Principle 5 : eradicating poverty: Full access in 2050

modern energy,

food

water

Improve health

Principle 6 : conserve Earth's ecosystem.

Climate change 2oC

Reduce air pollution to WHO guideline levels

Stop degradation of ecosystems after 2025

Reduce nitrogen unbalance

Reduce water stress

Climate change

Biodiversity loss

Nitrogen

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

With continuation of current policies, no breakthrough expected

Protect Ecosystems

Prevent dangerous climate change

Eridicate hunger

Little progress in achieving sustainable development goals

Characterisation of three pathways

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Pathway Main assumptions

Global Technology Large-scale, technologically optimal solutions; intesive agriculture, international coordination

Decentralised Solutions

Local energy production, multi-functional agriculture, local policies

Consumption change Dietary change, less energy-intensive lifestyle, further pressure released through technology

TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012

The land challenge

Ensuring access to food for all – while preventing biodiversity loss below the 2025 level

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Technical potential exists…. Food and biodiversity

Different pathways can be chosen

Key elements:

Increase agr. Prod. significantly

Mitigate climate change

Manage negative impacts of infrastructure

Protect ecological hotspots

Control consumption

Global nitrogen surplus

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Our best scenarios keep nitrogen surplus at 2000 level, despite dietary changes and additional n-specific measures.

TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012

The energy challenge

Ensuring access to energy for all – while staying within the 2 deg C emissions budget, restricting bio-energy use under sustainabiliy criteria and staying within WHO guidelines for air pollution.

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Technical potential exists… energy and climate

Reaching 2oC target and achieving other energy targets is possible; additional costs ~1-2% of GDP

Key elements:

Energy savings

Non-CO2

Carbon-free electricity

Energy access

Combining climate policy and air

pollution control

3

3

(b

)

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3

(a)

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3

(b)

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3

(c)

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3

(d)

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3

(e)

BaU Climate Policy

Stringent air pollution policy Both

TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012

Bringing it all together

Transformative action needed!!

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012

Improvement of Carbon intensity

Improvement of Agriculture efficiency

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l G

lob

al

Po

licy

Co

sts

(2

01

0-2

03

0)

Energy

Security Air pollution Climate

Policy Costs and Synergistic Effects

Inte

gra

ted

So

lutio

ns

McC

ollu

m e

t al, 2

012 (

Natu

re C

limate

Chang

e)

To

tal g

lob

al p

olicy c

osts

(p

erc

en

t o

f G

DP

)

20

10

-20

30

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Implications for water stress

19

Interactions!

Synergy

Mixed

Trade-off

Eridicate hunger

Access to water

Access to energy

Clean energy

Climate mitigation

Halting Biodiversity Loss

19

Access to water

Access to energy

Clean energy

Conserve biodiversity

Climate mitigation

Eridicate hunger

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

TWI2050 project

Quantitative analysis oriented at SDGs and Planetary Boundaries

Key impact : – Involve different institutions and their models and

couple them – Relate analysis to key products of institutes – Interaction with key stakeholders

Goals Targets IAM 1 End poverty in all its forms

everywhere

Eridicate extreme povery in 2030

Reduce poverty at least by half in 2030

2 End hunger, achieve food security and

promote sustainable agriculture

End hunger in 2030

End all forms of malnutrition in 2030

Double agricultural production

Make agriculture more sustainable

3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-

being for all at all ages

Reduce global maternal mortality in 2030

End preventable deaths of <5 children in 2030

4 Ensure inclusive quality education

5 Achieve gender equality

6 Ensure availability and sustainable

management of water and sanitation

for all

by 2030, achieve universal access to safe drinking water for all

by 2030, achieve access to adequate sanitation for all

by 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution

by 2030, substantially reduce the number of people suffering

from water scarcity

7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable,

sustainable, and modern energy for all

by 2030 ensure universal access to modern energy services

increase substantially the share of renewable energy by 2030

double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by

2030

8 Promote sustainable economic growth,

full and productive employment

Sustain GDP growth

Sustainable development goals

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Goals Targets IAM 9 Build resilient infrastructure, foster

innovation

10 Reduce inequality within and among

countries

Higher economic growth for bottom 40%

11 Make cities and settlements inclusive,

safe, resilient and sustainable

12 Ensure sustainable consumption and

production patterns

13 Take urgent action to combat climate

change and its impacts *

14 Conserve and sustainably use the

oceans, seas and marine resources

15 Protect, and promote sustainable use

of terrestrial ecosystems,

Halt deforestation, increase afforestation and reforestation

16 Promote peaceful and inclusive

societies, access to justice for all

17 Strengthen the means of

implementation a

Sustainable development goals

New scenarios for climate research – SSP/RCP

Two dimensions determining our future -

Clim

ate

ch

an

ge

RCP8.5

RCP2.6

Level of climate change Socio-economic development

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Some conclusions

• We can use model-based scenarios to map out pathways towards a sustainable 2050.

• These will show important synergies / trade-offs; technical and governance challenges timing.

• In the next period, important challenge in mapping out clear plan how to link models of different institutes to add to the overall analysis

Thank you for your attention!

Products:

• Rio+20: Report and interactive website (app) (http://www.pbl.nl/en/node/55488)

(http://roadsfromrio.pbl.nl/)

• SSPs

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

25 augustus 2015

The pathways (land/biodiversity)

27

Consumption Change Global Technology Decentralised Solutions

Access to food Reduced inequity Trend Reduced inequity

Trade Trend Liberalization Trend

Consumption Ceiling to meat consumption

per capita

Trend Trend

Waste Reduced by 50% - -

Productivity of agriculture

(compared to trend, 205)

15% > crop yield increase 30% > crop yield increase

15% > livestock ‘yields’

20% > increase in crop yields

15% > livestock ‘yields’

Allocation of

agriculture/nature

Trend Segregated Intertwined

Protected areas 17% (each of 65 biomes) 17% (each of 7 realms) 17% (each of 779 ecoregions)

Infrastructure Expansion constant after 2030 Trend Expansion constant after 2030

Forestry Reduced Impact Logging

Forest plantations supply 50% of global timber demand in 2050

Change in agriculture consumption

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Considerable increase in demand, driven by population and income.

Eridicating hunger could be done with very little impact on overall consumption levels

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Fo

rcin

g l

evel

(W

/m

2)

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5 RCPs

Climate SSPs

The Scenario Matrix Architecture

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5

Challenge to adaptation

Challenge t

o m

itig

ation

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012 Van Vuuren, D.P. et al 2012. . A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and

assessment in different climate research communities . Global Environmental Change

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Land use transformation

Land use

• Land use changes and emissions

• Trade-offs between bioenergy, afforestation,

food production1,2

• Agricultural productivity increases3

• Impact of dietary changes5

• International agricultural trade6

• Climate impacts on land

• Energy supply & demand changes

• Energy prices

• VRE integration1

• International energy market effects2

• Energy security

• Technology development &

policies3,4

Energy transformation

Examples of IAM output (PIK-REMIND model)