詹姆士看天下 2015/01/19

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 2015/1/19

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1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/1/19 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 % 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/1/16 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.47 410 409 297 6.98 520 539 335 10.26 914 948 461 4.18 278 288 218 () () () () () 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. -0.98 -0.76 -0.34 0.10 0.16 0.26 0.37 0.66 0.81 1.00 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 (%) 5.69 (&) 4.47 6.98 % % 10.26 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.3 -3.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -2.1 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 5 : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 MSCI MSCI (%) 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l -5.6 -7.7 -12.9 4.7 0.7 -0.6 -6.2 18.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -2.3 -3.3 -5.0 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 117.51 $1280.45 1.837% $48.69 $1.1567 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 5.9 5.4 4.8 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -3.0 -3.4 -13.1 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 7 : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 ==225= 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (5.9%5.4%4.8%) (2.8%) (2.4%) (-13.1%)1.201 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 122014 2015 2015 12 5.8%5.6%2014295 1999 (LMCI)12LMCI 6.15.012 0.2%1.7% S&P5002014 0.86%2.0% 3.58%4.7% () - 0309 () 3829 () 8342 () () 0484 () 2015/1/13 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1366.4% 12 16 2014 GDP5.98%2012 6 12 3 121 640 2015/1/13 0522 () 0548 () 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015 2% 13 101.86%19 0.2%3.2% 20142.4%2015 QE ING(L)Renta ( ) 4902 () 4905 () 4906 () () () 8332 () 8333 () 8334 () ING(L)Renta( ) 4908 () 4922 () 4923 () 2015/1/15 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/1/15() 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/1/15 () 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 12 1/19) 1/20() 1ZEW 40.0 34.9 GDP 7.2% 7.3% 12 11.7% 11.7% 8.25% 8.25% 1/21() 12 106.0 103.5 12 104.0 102.8 1/22() 0.05% 0.05% -10.5 -10.9 12.25% 11.75% 1/23() 12 508 493 12 0.4% 0.6% 1PMI 49.5 49.6 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2225 28 1.211 QE 1300 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE25 (40%) 1 (2015/1/19) 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 20153% 3.3%20163.3%3.5% 1411 1212 1511.20 3-0.75%0.25%-1.25% -0.25%417% 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 13 2,800(MLF)MLF 12M2 158%7.75% 80201412CPI 520166% 132015GDP 4%70%4 30640 GDP3.9%3.4%CPI2.4% 1.9%2.5%~3.5% 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 227(84) 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12 -0.9% -0.1% 0.4% 12 -0.1% -0.1% 1.3% 12 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 12CPI 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 12 -0.3% -0.4% -0.2% 1 98.2 94.1 93.6 11() 200 200 196 2014GDP 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% 12 96 97 97 -0.75% -- -0.25% : Bloomberg 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12() 496.1 490.0 544.8 12M2 12.2% 12.5% 12.3% 12 6973 8800 8527 12 9.7% 6.0% 4.7% 12 -2.4% -6.2% -6.7% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 11() -56.4 -54.0 -20.4 : Bloomberg 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1675.15 -1.73 -2.44 3.82 -3.96 -2.02 1.08 2019.42 -1.88 -2.47 7.03 2.08 -1.92 9.83 1176.66 -1.85 -1.61 8.72 2.17 -2.33 0.70 352.4 3.24 3.56 10.58 3.75 2.88 4.94 237.62 2.91 3.93 13.52 4.00 2.92 2.37 225 16864.16 -3.36 -4.30 16.04 10.83 -3.36 7.18 4401.2 0.23 1.93 13.71 15.13 0.23 16.41 3376.50 4.38 8.62 44.22 63.98 4.38 68.41 MSCI 957.46 0.39 1.36 -1.98 -9.95 0.12 -1.52 MSCI 462.22 0.43 2.66 4.16 -2.82 1.04 6.12 MSCI 295.5 -0.54 -2.17 -18.18 -29.52 -0.36 -30.17 MSCI 2662.79 0.98 -1.75 -15.60 -24.04 -2.38 -12.76 MSCI 268 -0.31 -0.62 -9.05 -19.07 -1.02 -15.48 Bloomberg 123.45 0.66 1.44 2.26 4.80 1.90 7.20 Bloomberg 132.81 0.26 0.76 1.58 3.36 0.36 7.67 Bloomberg 139.00 0.37 1.76 1.58 3.37 1.66 8.11 Bloomberg 144.44 -0.76 0.37 -2.63 -6.42 -1.28 -2.22 Bloomberg 149.17 -0.34 2.36 -1.34 -4.26 -0.45 0.08 Bloomberg 159.28 0.16 0.62 2.36 0.76 0.26 4.90 ETF 46.42 -0.98 -2.41 0.83 -4.39 -1.00 -0.29 Bloomberg 140.76 0.10 2.97 -1.74 -2.08 -0.05 4.72 Bloomberg 126.14 1.00 2.21 -0.32 -0.45 1.39 5.42 Bloomberg 149.37 0.81 2.40 3.00 5.94 1.27 14.51 Bloomberg 2015/1/16 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 225.85 -5.12 -6.29 -11.16 -25.93 -5.03 -16.43 MSCI 217.82 -2.00 -2.32 -1.77 -14.53 -2.34 -9.49 MSCI 98.04 -4.43 -4.50 0.51 -5.71 -4.59 -4.15 MSCI 180.84 -2.11 -1.95 7.97 -0.59 -2.88 0.83 MSCI 202.43 2.07 0.94 7.35 1.39 1.26 8.62 MSCI 193.45 -2.62 -2.99 3.44 -5.60 -2.95 -3.99 MSCI 137.35 -2.60 -3.43 7.90 2.36 -2.78 11.32 MSCI 68.63 0.72 -0.58 3.42 -5.56 0.39 -4.01 MSCI 122.74 -0.15 -0.07 -0.07 0.43 -0.26 12.09 MSCI 205.99 2.97 0.59 11.77 9.21 3.05 16.99 NBI 3324.97 3.78 0.34 19.81 26.87 4.64 28.56 AMEX 200.87 19.70 21.47 7.41 -17.35 22.46 -7.52 REITs FTSE 15243.24 5.50 7.08 16.63 15.49 6.99 33.53 REITs FTSE 1873.59 6.32 8.01 18.67 16.90 7.92 37.04 REITs FTSE 1357.58 8.96 9.68 21.81 14.84 8.33 30.88 REITs FTSE 1588.61 4.27 5.40 9.22 2.75 4.45 20.76 (/) 1280.45 7.67 6.98 3.36 -1.44 8.07 3.06 (/) 17.79 12.96 13.11 2.28 -14.35 13.22 -11.52 (/) 5715.00 -8.63 -10.21 -12.77 -19.26 -9.29 -21.82 (/) 50.17 -11.08 -16.19 -40.61 -52.60 -12.49 -53.15 (/) 48.69 -7.59 -12.94 -41.12 -51.89 -8.60 -48.18 CRB 224.24 -1.83 -6.68 -17.75 -24.61 -2.49 -19.46 934.29 -2.16 -4.43 -1.75 -8.03 -3.14 -9.49 : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1567 -3.62 -7.55 -9.70 -14.48 -4.39 -15.07 117.51 2.48 -0.94 -9.51 -13.48 1.93 -11.20 1.5150 -1.16 -3.81 -5.82 -11.59 -2.74 -7.36 0.8587 14.28 11.79 9.76 4.62 15.79 5.37 1.1984 -1.69 -2.98 -6.06 -10.37 -3.03 -8.80 0.8223 1.66 0.06 -6.09 -12.22 0.59 -6.78 1077.23 2.38 0.86 -1.45 -4.20 1.28 -1.29 31.5480 0.71 -0.81 -3.69 -4.90 0.34 -4.58 6.2078 0.00 -0.28 -1.36 -0.05 -0.04 -2.45 12590.00 -0.36 1.07 -2.62 -7.09 -1.60 -3.69 61.8713 2.25 2.69 -0.04 -2.81 1.89 -0.53 32.5430 1.30 1.34 -0.41 -1.33 1.13 0.70 1.3271 0.32 -1.82 -3.99 -6.37 -0.12 -4.19 3.5587 -1.20 -1.96 -7.73 -10.43 -1.73 -7.33 44.6750 0.29 0.07 0.67 -2.38 0.10 1.00 11.5500 1.14 0.95 -3.75 -7.52 0.18 -5.75 2.3259 0.81 1.68 -2.73 -8.88 0.39 -5.12 65.3060 -11.16 3.99 -37.43 -47.30 -7.00 -48.83 3.7264 -3.91 -9.55 -11.39 -17.99 -4.91 -17.88 275.22 -3.93 -9.26 -12.84 -16.87 -4.93 -19.81 3.8927 -4.19 -8.00 -11.29 -15.69 -4.90 -14.59 2.6223 2.67 4.44 -5.70 -15.21 1.35 -9.95 14.5582 1.89 1.33 -6.85 -11.27 1.33 -8.81 8.6013 -0.54 -0.59 -1.49 -5.20 -1.58 -21.25 : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.4531 -23.5 -23.8 -48.2 -88.4 -29.9 -132.0 10 1.8368 -27.4 -22.2 -31.9 -68.9 -33.4 -100.5 0.2430 -8.6 -11.8 -24.4 -30.4 -8.6 -43.5 0.4540 -4.4 -14.2 -36.6 -73.7 -8.7 -132.5 0.4540 -4.4 -14.2 -36.6 -73.7 -8.7 -132.5 0.6330 -14.6 -24.4 -62.9 -98.2 -19.3 -181.4 1.6580 -8.4 -35.4 -92.1 -116.2 -23.2 -218.3 1.5020 0.5 -29.8 -71.3 -116.1 -10.9 -223.1 2.5300 11.2 -39.4 -94.6 -119.6 -15.7 -276.8 2.2780 -17.8 -38.0 -45.7 -113.4 -24.0 -208.5 7.2900 -75.0 -147.0 -191.0 -153.0 -73.0 -298.0 13.4833 47.7 -230.3 358.7 472.1 47.7 542.2 3.2100 -39.0 -56.0 -104.0 -119.0 -39.0 -223.0 7.3780 -61.9 -60.1 -73.2 -81.0 -59.1 -96.9 12.0290 -29.2 -77.5 39.4 9.0 61.1 115.3 5.4170 -42.3 -76.7 -40.2 -30.0 -42.7 -101.1 2.3450 -31.1 -31.7 -39.0 -69.6 -26.0 -130.0 7.7850 -7.4 -66.2 -54.9 -35.0 -1.1 -65.8 7.7070 -16.9 -28.2 -66.4 -101.6 -15.0 -91.4 9 2.4080 -19.3 -34.4 -64.7 -117.4 -19.3 -154.2 : Bloomberg 2015/1/16 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 103027 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.