詹姆士看天下 2015/03/02

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 2015/03/02

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/03/02
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/2/28 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.19 373 375 297 6.40 456 446 335 9.74 912 862 461 4.00 251 248 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2/24 : Bloomberg 2015/2/28 (%) 5.70 (&) 4.19 6.40 % % 9.74 Q4GDP -0.21 0.14 0.34 0.36 0.39 0.55 0.59 0.6 0.71 0.77 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 -1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -2 -1 0 1 2 5 : Bloomberg 2015/2/27 2/24 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l l 2/24 -3.1 -10.1 -12.5 1.0 0.6 1.0 3.9 3.1 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/2/27 119.63 $1213.22 1.993% $49.76 $1.1196
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 7 : Bloomberg 2015/2/27 ==225= 2/24 (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (2.4%)QE (2.0%) (-2.5%) (-1.5%)
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 20.2 9.0 8.3 7.9 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.3 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.3 -0.6 -6.2 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 9 : Bloomberg 2015/2/27 ==225= (%)
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 15 4 9 5000 234 200718261 153 3.7%13.51%4 1 17%13.5% 200020833 2015/2/23 0555 () - 0648 () () 0460 () 225
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 244 1 5 3 QE 600 20156.4% 218 60.846 2231.5 2 1 818%51% 600 2015/2/24 () 2695 () 8925 ()
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2425 31 25 4 12 6%4.08%366 6.42%454 2015/2/26 ( ) 3830 () 3868 () 8360 () ()( ) 0423 () 0424 () ()- ( ) 4530 () 4584 () 4532 () 4533 ()
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/2/27()
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/2/27 ()
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2 3/2() 1 0.4% 0.3% 2ISM 53.0 53.5 1 0.3% 0.4% 2CPI 0.6% 0.6% 3/3() 2.00% 2.25% 3/4() 2ADP 21.8 21.3 1 0.2% 0.3% 3/5() 1 0.2% -3.4% 0.05% 0.05% 0.50% 0.50% 3/6() 2 23.5 25.7 2 5.6% 5.7% 1() 415 466 GDP 0.9% 0.9%
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2 3 4050 1200
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) 3 2 3 3600 3 (40%) 1 4 (2015/3/2)
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2425 31.31 0.7%12.7% 4(GDP)2.2%2.6% 2014GDP2.4%2013 2.2%2.5%2006 24 70
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1131 10.255.35%10.25 2.5% 1.21.3;
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 24 7.5%10.75% 2 24 1500 32 32 PetrobrasBa2
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2 96.4 99.5 103.8 1 48.1 47.0 48.2 1CPI -0.7% -0.6% -0.3% 1 2.8% 1.6% -3.7% 2 1.7% 2.0% -1.5% 2 95.4 94.0 93.6 GDP 2.2% 2.0% 2.6% 1CPI -1.6% -1.6% -0.1% 1M3 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 2IFO 106.8 107.7 106.7 GDP 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% GDP 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 1 4.0% 2.7% 0.8% 1CPI 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 1 5.35% -- 5.60% 2PMI 50.1 49.5 49.7 7.50% 7.50% 7.75% 1() 43.1 46 85.1 GDP 3.1% -- 3.0% 1 5.3% 5.0% 4.3% 12 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% GDP 4.1% 3.8% 2.1% : Bloomberg
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 24 MSCI 1772.86 0.14 4.63 2.12 1.47 3.70 5.82 2104.5 -0.24 4.14 1.84 5.11 2.21 13.18 1233.37 0.12 4.92 5.56 4.57 2.38 4.26 392.21 1.85 6.79 12.91 14.43 14.50 16.03 264.96 1.41 7.72 15.77 15.98 14.76 10.48 225 18797.94 1.79 7.06 6.42 19.97 7.72 26.66 4556.88 0.66 2.21 5.12 9.33 3.77 26.86 3310.30 1.95 5.82 19.78 46.08 2.34 60.98 MSCI 990.28 0.69 2.75 0.59 -8.88 3.55 2.47 MSCI 479.26 1.13 2.59 3.90 -1.81 4.76 9.45 MSCI 313.41 -0.50 8.15 -8.94 -20.90 5.68 -22.80 MSCI 2654.03 0.74 2.84 -7.69 -27.72 -2.70 -9.75 MSCI 284 -1.00 3.30 -3.56 -12.58 4.89 -9.16 Bloomberg 122.47 0.36 -0.93 1.62 2.90 1.08 5.08 Bloomberg 134.05 0.14 0.74 1.76 3.00 1.30 7.22 Bloomberg 139.45 0.55 -0.12 2.34 2.43 1.99 6.62 Bloomberg 148.45 0.39 2.32 -1.00 -3.54 1.46 -1.04 Bloomberg 154.13 0.59 2.72 0.54 -1.20 2.86 1.96 Bloomberg 163.48 0.60 2.03 2.56 2.62 2.90 6.24 ETF 47.88 -0.21 3.59 -1.24 -3.91 2.11 -0.54 Bloomberg 143.18 0.71 0.97 -0.71 -1.15 1.67 5.38 Bloomberg 125.94 0.34 -0.80 -1.29 -1.14 1.22 4.83 Bloomberg 152.08 0.77 0.60 3.04 5.34 3.11 13.08 Bloomberg 2015/2/27
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () 24 MSCI 235.71 -0.81 1.51 -3.59 -21.16 -0.88 -13.82 MSCI 239.55 0.73 6.96 5.23 -3.91 7.40 -2.75 MSCI 103.80 0.36 5.34 -0.23 -1.12 1.01 2.62 MSCI 197.99 0.36 7.00 6.21 9.09 6.33 9.06 MSCI 209.57 0.70 2.68 2.88 6.25 4.83 11.09 MSCI 206.98 -0.19 4.88 3.04 2.01 3.84 3.18 MSCI 147.17 -0.20 6.78 3.28 7.05 4.17 17.47 MSCI 72.10 1.14 3.59 1.18 1.02 5.47 2.25 MSCI 119.48 -0.52 -4.19 -4.19 -1.04 -2.91 3.20 MSCI 213.27 0.01 3.99 3.53 9.92 6.69 15.66 NBI 3529.71 -0.15 5.51 9.97 22.21 11.08 27.66 AMEX 192.14 3.81 -5.99 12.99 -18.83 17.14 -19.19 REITs FTSE 14666.73 -1.95 -2.90 4.21 9.64 2.94 21.88 REITs FTSE 1785.90 -2.34 -3.54 4.48 10.55 2.87 22.58 REITs FTSE 1478.56 0.78 2.45 17.81 24.20 17.99 37.01 REITs FTSE 1578.35 0.71 0.57 3.26 0.59 3.77 16.02 (/) 1213.22 0.96 -4.70 1.36 -4.02 2.51 -8.43 (/) 16.60 1.59 -3.38 0.98 -13.25 5.86 -22.38 (/) 5895.00 3.93 8.74 -10.10 -16.15 -6.43 -16.09 (/) 62.58 6.25 13.90 -11.60 -37.85 8.77 -42.83 (/) 49.76 0.63 -0.40 -26.18 -46.85 -7.32 -51.88 CRB 224.08 0.95 1.65 -11.55 -22.54 -2.56 -25.91 922.67 1.24 0.67 -5.43 -6.22 -4.35 -15.54 : Bloomberg 2015/2/27
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 24 1.1196 -1.23 -1.59 -9.87 -15.02 -7.75 -18.74 119.63 -0.69 -1.89 -0.53 -12.31 -0.05 -15.35 1.5438 -0.12 2.43 -1.48 -6.47 -1.10 -7.57 0.9543 -0.47 -2.77 1.84 -3.72 4.17 -7.48 1.2515 0.45 0.38 -8.87 -12.69 -7.16 -11.51 0.7808 0.08 -0.26 -7.84 -16.08 -4.80 -12.92 1098.00 0.97 -1.66 0.03 -7.62 -0.64 -2.64 31.4580 0.79 -0.54 -1.75 -4.80 0.63 -3.60 6.2694 -0.21 -0.42 -2.09 -2.01 -1.02 -2.25 12932.00 -0.75 -3.58 -5.84 -9.67 -4.21 -9.77 61.8388 0.76 -0.70 0.06 -2.24 1.95 0.24 32.3570 0.62 0.71 1.64 -0.69 1.73 0.56 1.3629 -0.24 -0.92 -3.86 -8.13 -2.85 -6.85 3.6042 0.91 -0.19 -7.15 -12.70 -2.97 -8.99 44.0950 0.40 -0.05 1.71 -0.98 1.42 1.29 11.6585 -0.20 -1.59 -4.80 -8.08 -0.98 -6.75 2.5082 -1.35 -3.03 -11.01 -13.34 -6.86 -10.97 61.7535 3.06 11.35 -12.04 -38.96 -1.02 -40.38 3.7052 -0.46 -0.68 -9.59 -13.76 -4.67 -17.27 270.37 -0.28 0.94 -8.62 -11.48 -3.62 -15.94 3.9626 -0.95 -2.50 -10.05 -15.51 -6.88 -16.93 2.8412 1.30 -9.42 -10.91 -20.91 -6.46 -18.37 14.9499 0.93 -0.50 -5.61 -12.27 -1.28 -10.77 8.7256 -0.19 -1.11 -2.33 -3.72 -2.99 -9.75 : Bloomberg 2015/2/27
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 24 30 2.5903 -6.7 19.0 -36.4 -51.2 -16.2 -100.1 10 1.9930 -6.4 17.0 -25.2 -36.4 -17.8 -64.6 0.3350 -4.8 7.2 -9.2 -16.3 0.6 -25.2 0.3280 -3.7 -5.5 -37.2 -58.2 -21.3 -123.4 0.3280 -3.7 -5.5 -37.2 -58.2 -21.3 -123.4 0.6040 -5.5 2.7 -38.9 -65.0 -22.2 -152.1 1.3310 -16.5 -20.0 -72.8 -105.9 -55.9 -212.9 1.2600 -15.9 -13.0 -63.0 -88.7 -35.1 -223.2 1.8280 -30.8 -61.5 -99.0 -119.2 -85.9 -298.2 2.1570 -12.6 15.5 -25.5 -88.7 -36.1 -222.9 8.3800 43.0 145.0 45.0 -77.0 36.0 -221.0 12.9290 71.5 -71.0 254.8 357.9 -7.8 446.8 2.9100 -33.0 12.0 -65.0 -142.0 -69.0 -312.0 7.6240 -3.8 43.6 -6.4 -35.1 -34.5 -94.0 12.2880 -47.0 52.0 39.8 103.7 -7.6 -35.3 5.6320 6.9 34.6 -15.5 -12.3 -21.2 -71.7 2.3550 -7.2 5.8 -29.4 -69.2 -25.0 -114.6 7.0620 -11.5 -18.8 -64.5 -122.8 -73.4 -135.2 7.7280 2.3 2.1 -41.9 -82.8 -12.9 -119.1 9 2.6130 -10.1 15.1 -20.5 -87.5 1.2 -131.3 : Bloomberg 2015/2/27
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 103027
  29. 29. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.