詹姆士看天下 2015/04/07

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/04/07



124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%



Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/4/6

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.34 388 394 297

6.56 476 480 335

8.82 835 784 461

3.89 252 252 218

() ()()()()



3/30

: Bloomberg 2015/4/6

4

(%)

5.75

(&)

4.34

6.56

%

%

8.82

0.18

0.23

0.28

0.42

0.48

0.65

0.66

0.88

1.34

1.36

0 0.5 1 1.5



7.8 7.5

5.4

3.8 2.4 2.0

1.3

-0.6

2.5 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)



6

l

l

-2.7

-5.8

-9.1

2.4

7.1

2.7

-1.7

3.6 3.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4

-0.8

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

CR

B

(%)


119.54 $1214.86

1.895%

$1.0922 $52.14



10.5

4.9

2.9 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7

1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1

0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

7

: Bloomberg 2015/4/6 ==225=

(%)



(10.5%) (4.9%)

(2.9%)

(-1.0%)

8



9

2.53

3030%20%60%40%52

3303.43%2.59%AH

AH

2015/3/31

-

0302 ()

- 4220 () 4202()

() 0404 ()



2

10

IMF36%2

QEOECD1.1%1.4%230.1%336.4%

32511500363%20018

11.29%1999

2015/3/31

()

2695 ()

8925 ()



11

337%20137342

3PMI251.252.1201337.4%7.8%20168.2%

32763

2015/4/2

-

4005 ()

2422 ()

2592 ()



12

Bloomberg



13

() Bloomberg : 2015/4/6()



14

() Bloomberg : 2015/4/6()



: Bloomberg

15

4/6()

4/7()

4Sentix 20.8 18.6

2.25% 2.25%

7.50% 7.50%

4/8()

2() 122.5 115.62

2 2.8% 3.7%

2 0.5% -0.1%

4/9()

2() 190 159

0.50% 0.50%

1.75% 1.75%

4/10()

2 0.5% 0.6%

2 0.3% 1.3%

3 1.2% 1.4%



3

3

50

16



(60%)

3

38004000

6.3%

24

(40%)

3

(2015/4/7)

17



18

3312.624.5201312(LMCI)-0.3310.9%200880.3%2.1%2

QE QE3PMI11PMI

9IMF4.524



5150 (AIIB)UAE34

19



5543060126

2610005%8%

2483

20



2 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

2 3.1% 0.3% 1.2%

3 101.3 96.4 98.8

3ADP 18.9 22.5 21.4

3ISM 51.5 52.5 52.9

2 0.2% -0.4% -0.7%

3 12.6 24.5 26.4

3 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

2 11.3% 11.2% 11.4%

3Markit 52.2 51.9 51.9

3 -0.1% -0.1% -0.3%

3Markit 52.8 52.4 52.4

3Markit 48.8 48.2 48.2

: Bloomberg

21



2 -2.6% -0.6% -2.8%

12 14 12

19 17 17

3 50.1 49.7 49.9

3 53.7 -- 53.9

3 49.6 49.3 49.2

2.00% 2.00% 2.25%

3 54.8 55.3 55.1

2014GDP 2.6% 2.1% 1.9%

2() 46.6 43.2 43.1

2014GDP 0.4% 0.0% 0.9%

2 -9.1% -10.1% -5.1%

3() 4.58 -3.5 -28.42

: Bloomberg

22



(%) 4/6 3/30

MSCI 1764.49 1.13 1.29 6.15 6.21 3.21 6.34 2080.62 0.95 0.45 2.70 7.52 1.05 12.77

1260.54 1.62 3.53 7.19 17.12 4.64 10.99 397.80 0.57 2.61 16.54 18.68 16.13 17.95

268.89 1.46 2.47 16.45 22.44 16.46 12.60 225 19397.98 0.58 3.00 15.72 23.79 11.97 31.94

4773.21 2.62 5.02 8.70 16.26 8.80 34.40

3863.93 4.68 20.22 16.26 64.83 20.46 89.26 MSCI 1005.86 4.98 3.57 6.87 -0.49 5.18 0.17

MSCI 490.11 3.77 2.69 8.54 6.80 7.13 9.37 MSCI 321.83 7.90 5.91 9.47 -12.83 8.52 -20.57 MSCI 2622.08 9.03 6.44 -0.87 -20.50 -3.87 -19.97 MSCI 287.89 6.44 4.61 7.73 -4.79 6.32 -9.56

Bloomberg 123.47 0.28 2.08 0.73 3.72 1.91 6.30 Bloomberg 134.07 0.18 0.20 1.09 2.57 1.32 6.88 Bloomberg 140.16 0.42 1.92 1.28 3.45 2.51 6.82

Bloomberg 148.08 0.66 0.39 2.20 -1.52 1.20 -2.07 Bloomberg 154.31 0.48 0.19 3.83 0.38 2.98 1.36 Bloomberg 163.30 0.23 -0.23 2.74 3.17 2.79 4.98 ETF 48.28 1.36 2.29 3.54 1.92 2.96 3.71

Bloomberg 144.89 0.88 1.64 3.73 1.38 2.89 5.07 Bloomberg 126.75 1.34 1.79 2.32 0.98 1.87 4.15 Bloomberg 153.04 0.65 0.91 3.24 7.45 3.76 12.81

Bloomberg 2015/4/6

23



(%) () 4/6 3/30

MSCI 232.50 2.59 1.88 3.64 -13.11 -2.23 -16.63 MSCI 228.91 0.77 -1.14 6.07 1.22 2.63 -5.71

MSCI 104.66 1.50 2.08 5.65 4.51 1.85 3.07 MSCI 199.24 1.47 1.54 10.24 15.52 7.00 13.91 MSCI 207.84 1.59 1.17 5.76 8.57 3.96 9.36

MSCI 205.02 0.92 1.02 6.69 7.53 2.86 2.71 MSCI 144.49 0.81 -0.59 5.03 9.11 2.27 18.25 MSCI 70.82 1.35 1.10 6.87 2.31 3.60 0.54 MSCI 118.21 1.69 3.22 3.22 0.80 -3.94 0.17 MSCI 215.51 -0.51 2.28 7.44 13.06 7.81 21.65 NBI 3546.91 -2.46 -1.02 8.81 27.19 11.63 49.79

AMEX 173.27 4.24 4.01 -4.35 -7.20 5.63 -23.42 REITs FTSE 15055.50 1.96 6.39 1.42 19.29 5.67 23.73 REITs FTSE 1844.70 2.17 7.23 1.41 21.50 6.25 24.61 REITs FTSE 1489.52 -0.98 0.97 18.00 31.55 18.86 39.90 REITs FTSE 1543.79 -1.33 -0.83 1.15 5.59 1.50 11.84

(/) 1214.86 1.34 3.88 0.09 0.29 2.33 -6.54 (/) 16.99 0.21 7.13 2.17 -1.69 7.53 -15.00

(/) 5980.00 -1.24 4.09 -2.69 -10.88 -5.08 -9.65 (/) 58.12 3.03 -3.50 12.69 -37.42 0.54 -45.53 (/) 52.14 6.69 4.33 6.39 -41.74 -2.83 -48.47

CRB 220.02 2.26 -0.05 -2.24 -21.42 -4.32 -27.71 902.10 0.61 1.00 -7.34 -3.77 -6.48 -21.63


24



(%) 4/6 3/30

1.0922 0.30 0.79 -7.61 -13.66 -9.59 -20.40 119.54 -0.34 1.31 -0.27 -9.66 0.17 -13.78 1.4880 0.01 -1.57 -1.46 -7.49 -4.41 -10.34

0.9587 0.32 2.96 5.92 -0.08 3.83 -7.28 1.2482 1.01 1.01 -5.31 -10.44 -6.87 -12.05 0.7592 -2.06 -1.35 -5.95 -13.83 -7.06 -18.04

1085.03 1.66 2.01 0.89 -2.21 0.07 -3.19 30.9180 1.10 1.28 2.85 -2.12 1.81 -2.62

6.1944 0.34 1.16 0.32 -0.85 0.21 0.33 12960.00 0.80 0.49 -1.95 -6.05 -4.62 -12.96

62.1888 0.37 -0.03 2.23 -0.93 1.37 -3.32 32.4430 0.39 0.33 1.19 0.32 1.31 -0.07

1.3542 1.11 1.81 -1.21 -5.96 -2.26 -7.15 3.6315 1.43 1.16 -1.49 -10.37 -3.81 -10.05

44.3900 0.87 -0.58 1.33 0.41 0.55 0.82

11.8006 2.02 2.41 -1.06 -5.25 -1.99 -10.82 2.5710 1.51 1.17 -9.80 -11.53 -9.19 -17.92 55.4630 4.12 8.87 13.47 -27.94 9.56 -35.71 3.7312 0.89 1.74 -2.73 -11.43 -4.96 -18.61 273.84 0.69 2.95 -1.82 -11.08 -4.32 -18.39

4.0440 0.43 1.32 -5.93 -13.87 -8.33 -19.53

3.1261 3.80 -1.99 -13.60 -22.39 -14.99 -29.02

14.9193 2.09 3.90 -1.21 -9.53 -0.97 -12.67 8.8260 -0.20 -0.75 -3.10 -4.03 -4.09 -9.34


25



(%) () (bp)

4/6 3/30

30 2.5532 1.3 -28.8 2.4 -49.3 -19.9 -100.4

10 1.8952 -6.6 -34.6 -7.3 -44.4 -27.6 -80.5

0.3400 -3.5 -5.6 3.9 -17.3 1.1 -27.8

0.1940 -1.3 -19.9 -25.2 -71.2 -34.7 -135.9 0.1940 -1.3 -19.9 -25.2 -71.2 -34.7 -135.9 0.4850 -1.6 -20.8 -24.6 -77.0 -34.1 -154.5

1.3010 -5.3 -1.6 -56.3 -103.1 -58.9 -186.8 1.2210 -10.2 -7.4 -42.3 -92.5 -39.0 -192.9 1.7090 -4.9 -5.1 -86.9 -132.2 -97.8 -214.4

2.2600 -5.0 -20.0 -11.7 -71.1 -25.8 -187.0 8.1600 -34.0 -23.0 45.0 -148.0 14.0 -212.0 11.4704 -32.5 -124.1 -238.6 188.1 -153.6 257.2 3.2800 -7.0 45.0 -32.0 -127.0 -32.0 -230.0

7.7100 -12.6 -25.9 -5.9 -56.2 -25.9 -75.7

12.7970 -44.1 -17.2 56.6 101.6 43.3 -4.5

5.7660 -11.8 -22.8 -0.1 -24.4 -7.8 -45.8

2.0650 -11.0 -26.7 -49.0 -78.2 -54.0 -149.5 7.2880 -3.8 -19.5 -82.9 -116.4 -50.8 -57.5 7.7230 -5.4 1.6 -13.6 -72.9 -13.4 -138.1

9 2.5360 -5.2 -8.1 -6.5 -83.1 -6.5 -139.0


26



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詹姆士看天下 2015/04/07

Economy & Finance