อาจารย์ ม ธ . แนะ การใช้โมเดลของ...
DESCRIPTION
อาจารย์ ม ธ . แนะ การใช้โมเดลของ ”_________” ทำ trading. ด.ร. ศุภกร สุนทรกิจ อาจารย์พิเศษ โครงการปริญญาโททางการเงิน (โครงการ MIF) และ บลจ เอ็มเอฟซี จำกัด (มหาชน). หัวข้อ. กลยุทธ์พื้นฐาน กลยุทธ์ความผันผวน การประมาณการความผันผวนของดัชนี. Four Basic Strategies. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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อาจารย์� อาจารย์� มมธธ . . แนะ การใช้�โมเดลแนะ การใช้�โมเดลของของ””_________” _________” ทำ�า ทำ�า
tradingtradingดด..รร . . ศุ�ภกร สุ�นทำรก�จศุ�ภกร สุ�นทำรก�จ
อาจารย์�พิ�เศุษ โครงการปร�ญญาโทำทำางการเง�น อาจารย์�พิ�เศุษ โครงการปร�ญญาโทำทำางการเง�น ((โโครงการ ครงการ MIF)MIF)
และ บลจ เอ$มเอฟซี' จ�าก(ด และ บลจ เอ$มเอฟซี' จ�าก(ด ((มหาช้นมหาช้น))
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ห(วข�อกลยุ�ทธ์�พื้นฐานกลยุ�ทธ์�ความผั�นผัวนการประมาณการความผั�นผัวนของดั�ชน�
3
Four Basic Strategies
4
Value of Option at Expiration
0Stock price
Payoff
Holder
Premium
0
Payoff
Writer
Premium
Stock price
5
Why Option
-200.0%-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%200.0%300.0%400.0%
500.0%600.0%
1 9 17
25
33
41
49
57
P/L Stock
P/L Call
6
Put Option at Expiration
Long Put Short Put
7
Income Strategies
8
Strategy:Covered CallAction: Buy Stock + Sell OTM Call
Written call
Stock
Covered Call
9
Strategy:Covered Call
Action: Buy Stock + Sell OTM CallOutlook: Neutral to BullishRationale:
Buy stock for medium to long term and capturing monthly income by selling call every monthIf the stock rise sell the stock to deliverIf stock falls, keep the premium
10
Protective Put
0
PayoffsStock
Protective put
Put
11
Bull Put SpreadLong lower strike putWrite OTM put
12
Bear Call SpreadAction
Sell lower strike callBuy OTM call
Outlook: bearlish or neutral to bearish
13
Long Iron ButterflyBuy lower strike put+sell middle strike put and call+Buy higher strike call
14
Other Income Strategies
Covered Short StraddleBuy stock + Sell put + Sell callOutlook: Bullish
Covered Short StragleLong stock + Short OTM put + Short OTM callOutlook: bullish
Calendar callBuy long maturity call + Sell Short term call
15
Volatility Strategies
16
Volatility Trading: Definition
Trading strategies designed to speculate on change in the volatility of the market or stock instead of its direction.The point is that you don’t care which direction it moves (up or down), as long as it moves explosively in one direction or the other.The trick is spotting something that’s about to make that move
17
Volatility Trading
Long volatility: Buy call & sell stockBuy put & buy stock
Short volatilitySell call & buy stockSell put & sell stock
18
Volatility Trading: Call & Put Value VS Stock Price
0
5
10
15
20
25
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
Call
Put
19
Volatility Trading
20
Long Volatility 1:Long Call & Short Stock
21
Long call & Short stock
-10-50
5101520
2530
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
22
Long Call & Short Stock: Delta neutral
-5
0
5
10
15
70 80 90 100 110 120
P/L LCSS
23
Delta neutral VS Not neutral
-10-505
1015202530
1 8 15
22
29
36
43
50
57
LCSSN0
LCSS
24
Long Volatility using Long call Short Stock
-10
0
10
20
30
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
LCSS
LCSS-
LCSS+
25
Long Volatility using Long call Short Stock
-5
0
5
10
90 95 100 105 110
LCSS
LCSS-
LCSS+
26
Long Call & Short Stock with changing volatility
-3
-1
1
3
5
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
LCSS
LCSS-
LCSS+
27
Long Volatility: Buy Put Buy Stock
0
PayoffsStock
Protective put
Put
28
Long Volatility: Buy Put Buy Stock
-10-50
5101520
2530
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
LP+LS
29
Long volatility using Long Put & Long Stock
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
70 80 90 100 110 120
LPLS
LPLS-
LPLS+
30
Short VolatilityCovered Call :Short OTM call & Long Stock
Written call
Stock
Covered Call
31
Short Volatility I: Covered call
Cover Call1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
32
Short volatility using covered call
-25-20-15
-10-505
1015
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Cover Call0
Cover Call-
Cover Call+
33
Short volatility: Sell put + Sell stock
SPSS
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
34
Short volatility: Sell put + Sell stockPayoff
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1 9 17
25
33
41
49
57
SPSS0
SPSS-
SPSS+
35
Short volatility: Sell put + Sell stockPayoff Zoom
-10
-5
0
5
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021
36
Straddle Long Call and Long Put
StrangleStripStrapShort BitterflyShort Condors
Other Strategies
37
StraddleLong call + long put with same exercise price
A
+B
=C
Long call
Long put
Straddle
P+C
38
A Straddle Combination
Profit
STK
A straddle involves buying a call and put with the same strike price and expiration date.
39
Straddle
Straddle
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
40
Long volatility using straddle
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Straddle
Straddle-
Straddle+
41
Strip
Profit
K ST
A strip consists of a long position in one call and two puts with the same strike price and expiration date.
42
Strap
Profit
K ST
A strap consists of a long position in two calls and one put with the same strike price and expiration date.
43
Using Volatility
44
Volatility
Implied volatility is a market forecast of the future volatility of the underlying stock or indexLong volatility position gains when realized volatility is higher than implied volatility at inceptionChanges in implied volatility affect the MTM of the position
45
Can volatility be forecasted?
Volatility cannot be predicted over long periods of time
Option market can provide “market forecasts” for period ranging from 1 month to 1 year
Statistical models may be used to forecast volatility over short periods of time
Importance of taking into “exogenous news” and events, macro news
46
VIX Index
VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Referred to by some as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-9
7
Jul-97
Jan-9
8
Jul-98
Jan-9
9
Jul-99
Jan-0
0
Jul-00
Jan-0
1
Jul-01
Jan-0
2
Jul-02
Jan-0
3
Jul-03
Jan-0
4
Jul-04
Jan-0
5
Jul-05
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
VIX Index SP500
VIX Index
Source: MFC, Bloomberg
Figure 3: VIX index of S&P implied volatility
Russia/LTCM
SE Asia
ENRON WCOM
Subprime
Shanghai Surprise
49
Traditional SD & GARCH
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
1
118
235
352
469
586
703
820
937
50
SET50 & Volatility(EGARCH)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jun
-03
Sep -
03
Dec -
03
Mar
-04
May
-
04
Aug -
04
Nov -04
Feb -05
Apr -05
Jul-05
Oct -05
Jan
-06
Mar
-06
Jun
-06
Sep -
06
Dec -
06
Feb -07
May
-
07
Aug -
07
฿0
฿0
฿0
฿0
฿0
฿0
฿0
SET50
SD
51
Using MA & Traditional SD for Trading Signal
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
1
118
235
352
469
586
703
820
937
52
GARCH & MA as a signal (1 Yr data)
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
1 32
63
94
125
156
187
218
249
Series1
20 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)