[ 시세예측의 비밀 ] roe 를 활용한 손쉬운 미래주가 예측법

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[ 시세예측의 비밀 ] ROE 를 활용한 손쉬운 미래주가 예측법. 수익성 지표 – 자기자본순이익률 (ROE). 부 채. 자 산. 자 본. 자기자본순이익률 = 순이익 / 자기자본 * 100 ROE(Return on Equity)): 투입한 자기자본대비 얼마만큼의 이익을 냈는지를 나타내는 지표 기업이 자기자본을 활용해 1 년간 얼마를 벌어들였는가를 나타내는 수익성 지표 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1

[ ]ROE

(ROE)
= / * 100

ROE(Return on Equity)): 1 ROE 10% = 10 1, ROE 20% = 10 2 - ROE , - ROE



ROE
BPS
ROE
ROE
ROE

ROE
ROE ()

BPS + or = BPS(BPS * ( 1 + ROE )n) * (ROE * 0.1)

ROE ()

1. ROE 20% BPS 2 . = BPS * 2.0

2. ROE 15% BPS 1.5 . = BPS * 1.5

3. ROE 10% BPS 1.0 . = BPS * 1.0

4. ROE 5% BPS 0.5 . = BPS * 0.5

1,475,000 5 BPS(E) = 688,251 * (1 + 0.16)5 = 1,445,562 5 (1.5) = 2,168,343, (1.25 1,806,952 ~ 2.0 2,891,124)

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012167,854203,985263,213301,597394,002416,074479,398559,719634,048730,542893,4911,013,1361,214,80260,02830,55070,52853,530101,68869,07081,93679,22974,32996,494157,990133,826231,854BPS98,661 119,898 154,711 177,272 231,586 244,560 281,780 328,991 372,680 429,397 503,075 570,674688,251ROE35.81526.817.725.816.617.114.211.713.220.3714,6521,65

1,475,000 5 BPS(E) = 688,251 * (1 + 0.16)5 = 1,445,562 = (5 BPS 144) or ( 28, EPS 16,4700 * 11.1 = 183)

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012167,854203,985263,213301,597394,002416,074479,398559,719634,048730,542893,4911,013,1361,214,80260,02830,55070,52853,530101,68869,07081,93679,22974,32996,494157,990133,826231,854BPS98,661 119,898 154,711 177,272 231,586 244,560 281,780 328,991 372,680 429,397 503,075 570,674688,251ROE35.81526.817.725.816.617.114.211.713.220.3714,6521,65

1,475,000 5 BPS(E) = 688,251 * (1 + 0.16)5 = 1,445,562 = (5 BPS 144) or ( 28, EPS 16,4700 * 11.1 = 183)
= 1,445,562 * 1.6 = 2,312,899 = BPS * (ROE * 0.1) 879,295 * (18.8 * 0.1) = 1,653,074

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012167,854203,985263,213301,597394,002416,074479,398559,719634,048730,542893,4911,013,1361,214,80260,02830,55070,52853,530101,68869,07081,93679,22974,32996,494157,990133,826231,854BPS98,661 119,898 154,711 177,272 231,586 244,560 281,780 328,991 372,680 429,397 503,075 570,674688,251ROE35.81526.817.725.816.617.114.211.713.220.3714,6521,65

183,500, 5 BPS(E) = 154,264 * (1 + 0.15)5 = 310,280 5 (1.5) = 465,420, (1.0 310,280 ~ 2.0 620,560

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201293,130104,608119,086130,848150,530160,508182,026196,523220,290328,880403,277479,17611,654 14,435 16,726 17,454 23,487 15,261 16,824 14,479 29,615 55,67180,28884,369BPS33,246 37,340 42,426 46,756 55,774 59,353 67,155 72,385 81,194 105,429 130,003154,264ROE13.814.615.014.016.79.89.87.614.221,522,821,1

183,500, 5 BPS(E) = 154,264 * (1 + 0.15)5 = 310,280 = (5 BPS = 31) or ( 7, EPS 24,500 * 8.43 = 206,700)

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201293,130104,608119,086130,848150,530160,508182,026196,523220,290328,880403,277479,17611,654 14,435 16,726 17,454 23,487 15,261 16,824 14,479 29,615 55,67180,28884,369BPS33,246 37,340 42,426 46,756 55,774 59,353 67,155 72,385 81,194 105,429 130,003154,264ROE13.814.615.014.016.79.89.87.614.221,522,821,1

183,500, 5 BPS(E) = 154,264 * (1 + 0.15)5 = 310,280 = (5 BPS = 31) or ( 7, EPS 24,500 * 8.43 = 206,700)
= 310,280 * 1.5 = 465,420 = BPS * (ROE * 0.1) 189,371 * (12.8 * 0.1) = 242,394

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201293,130104,608119,086130,848150,530160,508182,026196,523220,290328,880403,277479,17611,654 14,435 16,726 17,454 23,487 15,261 16,824 14,479 29,615 55,67180,28884,369BPS33,246 37,340 42,426 46,756 55,774 59,353 67,155 72,385 81,194 105,429 130,003154,264ROE13.814.615.014.016.79.89.87.614.221,522,821,1

POSCO 320,500 3 BPS(E) = 452,524 * ( 1 + 0.07 )3 = 554,3613 (1.0) = 554,361, ( 0.7 388,052 ~ 1.2 665,233 )

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201294,299 101,965 113,216 129,580 161,098 195,220 217,917 245,032 277,837 309,513 385,372 407,299424,29416,370 8,193 11,013 19,806 38,260 40,129 32,066 36,794 44,469 31,723 41,056 36,48124,621BPS109,846118,126133,856151,134188,409231,592266,473309,763345,414380,823419,509439,933452,524ROE17.688.3510.2416.3226.3322.5215.5215.917.0110.812.179.746.33

POSCO 320,500 3 BPS(E) = 452,524 * ( 1 + 0.07 )3 = 554,361 = (1 BPS 47) or ( 2.8, 32,100 * 11.1 = 356,462)

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201294,299 101,965 113,216 129,580 161,098 195,220 217,917 245,032 277,837 309,513 385,372 407,299424,29416,370 8,193 11,013 19,806 38,260 40,129 32,066 36,794 44,469 31,723 41,056 36,48124,621BPS109,846118,126133,856151,134188,409231,592266,473309,763345,414380,823419,509439,933452,524ROE17.688.3510.2416.3226.3322.5215.5215.917.0110.812.179.746.33

POSCO 320,500 3 BPS(E) = 452,524 * ( 1 + 0.07 )3 = 554,361 = (1 BPS 47) or ( 2.8, 32,100 * 11.1 = 356,462)
= 554,361 * 0.7 = 388,952 = BPS * (ROE * 0.1) 489,865 * (6.18* 0.1) = 302,736

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201294,299 101,965 113,216 129,580 161,098 195,220 217,917 245,032 277,837 309,513 385,372 407,299424,29416,370 8,193 11,013 19,806 38,260 40,129 32,066 36,794 44,469 31,723 41,056 36,48124,621BPS109,846118,126133,856151,134188,409231,592266,473309,763345,414380,823419,509439,933452,524ROE17.688.3510.2416.3226.3322.5215.5215.917.0110.812.179.746.33