Autocorrelation Functions and ARIMA Modelling

Introduction

Define what stationarity is and why it is so important to EconometricsDescribe the Autocorrelation coefficient and its relationship to stationarityEvaluate the Q-statisticDescribe the components of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA model)

Stationarity

A strictly stationary process is one where the distribution of its values remains the same as time proceeds, implying that the probability lies in a particular interval is the same now as at any point in the past or the future.However we tend to use the criteria relating to a weakly stationary process to determine if a series is stationary or not.

Weakly Stationary Series

A stationary process or series has the following properties:

- constant mean

- constant variance

- constant autocovariance structure

The latter refers to the covariance between y(t-1) and y(t-2) being the same as y(t-5) and y(t-6).

Stationary Series

Stationary Series

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