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SUSTAINING CALIFORNIA FORESTS: AN INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE
Chelsea P. McIverBureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Montana
Presented at the NorCal/SoCal Winter SAF Meeting 2016
Who We Are & What We DoResearch branch of the University of Montana’s School of Business Administration
Regional Economic Analysis Survey Research Industry Analysis
Forest Industry Research
Forest Industry Research Program
1. State-level industry analyses2. Logging utilization studies3. Resource Planning Act & Timber
Products Output Database4. Economic Impact Analyses –
harvesting and processing of timber (direct response coefficients)
Local benefits of restoration on public lands
Forest Industry Analyses Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast Describe industry structure, capacity,
condition, and changes over time Track wood fiber from forest to
marketplace Associate key economic indicators
State Industry Censuses Mill type, capacity, equipment,
employment Timber harvest volume, use, species,
county, & ownership Mill residue & wood fiber use Product volume, sales, & geographic
distribution
Species, products, ownership
California’s Timber Harvest, 2012
Harvest by species
1.4 billion board feet, Scribner
28%
27%18%
15%
6% 5%2%
Douglas-firTrue firsPonderosa pineRedwoodSugar PineCedarsOther spp.
Harvest by ownership19
72
1976
1982
1985
1988
1992
1994
2000
2006
2012
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 IndustryNIPFOther Pub-licUSFS
Billi
on b
oard
feet
Historical harvest by ownership
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 TotalPrivate & TribalNational ForestsOther Public
California Timberland & Harvest by Ownership
Timberland Sawtimber tree* Harvestedarea volume volume
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
53.461.2
14.3
2.9
2.8
2.0
43.736.0
83.7
National forest Other public Private
Perc
ent
*Sawtimber is timber of “sufficient size and quality to be suitable for conversion into lumber"
Historical harvest by product
Product type 1968 1972 1976 1982 1985 1988 1992 1994 2000 2006 2012
---------------------------------------------Percent -------------------------------------------------------
Sawlogs 86 86 86 91.2 92 92.5 99.3 92.9 89.8 88.1 82.8
Veneer logs 10 12 11.5 6.1 5 4.7 b 5.2 7.4 8.0 8.4
Pulpwood 1 1.5 0.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 c c c c -
Otherd 3 0.5 2.4 1.6 2.2 1.7 0.7 1.9 0.4 <0.3 0.6
Bioenergy e e e e e e e e 2.4 3.6 8.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Use of roundwood for bioenergy doubled as a proportion of the total harvest AND doubled in volume
Harvest by product and disposition
Harvest by Product Final Disposition
60%
32%
7%
Sawlogs
Wood for energy
Veneer & Other
31%
5%52%
3%8% 1% Lumber
Veneer & Other ProductsEnergyPaper/boardBark productsOther
Total = 407 MMCF
(including bark)
California Active Primary Processors
77 Total Active
30 sawmills 26 bioenergy 11 decorative bark 2 veneer 1 board 7 “other”
Composition of California’s Forest Products Industry
1988 1992 2000 2006 20120
20
40
60
80
100 93
5647
33 30
119 7 4 1
95 2 3 76 3 2 2 2
25 25 26
10 10 11
Sawmills Pulp/board OtherVeneer/plywood Bioenergy Bark
California’s Forest Products Industry
Sawmills make up largest sector Timber harvested, sales value, employment Produced 1.9 billion board feet of lumber 7% of U.S. softwood lumber production 5% of U.S. softwood lumber consumption
Sawmills generated 1.76 million BDTs of residue 99.8% was utilized (bioenergy, landscaping
& mulch)
California Sawtimber-processing Capacity by Size Class
Number of Facilities Share of Consumption
20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
810
12
Over 50 MMBF Annual Use
Over 10 MMBF to 50 MMBF Annual Use
Under 10 MMBF Annual Use
20120%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Over 50 MMBF Annual Use
Over 10 MMBF to 50 MMBF Annual Use
Under 10 MMBF Annual Use
Total Capacity = 1.78 Billion BF
California Capacity & Use
19881989
19901991
1992199
31994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Total capac-ity
Interstate and International
Timber Flow
Timber Receipts & Timber Flow California facilities processed slightly under 1.4
BBF <1 percent of timber processed came from out-
of-state Dropped from 126 MMBF to 4 MMBF
36 MMBF was shipped out-of-state to be processed
California became net exporter (to other states) 49 percent processed in county of harvest 87 percent processed in resource area of harvest
International Timber Flows California mills did not report using any
foreign timber Softwood log exports = 49 MMBF (145%
growth) Hardwood log exports = 28 MMBF Driven by Chinese and Japanese demand
Softwood lumber exports = 194 MMBF (78% growth)
Zhou 2013
Sales, Employment, and Wages
Economic Impacts
Economic Impacts - sales
2000 2006 20120
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Veneer and otherResidue-utilizing sectorEnergy/electricLumber
Total Sales $1.3 Billion
Economic Impacts - Employment 56,270 workers employed in forest
industry in CA
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
TotalWood product manufacturingPaper manufac-turingForestry and loggingForestry support activities
Year
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs (
thou
sand
s)
Economic Impacts - Wages Labor income in 2014 exceeded $3.6 billion
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
Total Wood product manufacturingPaper manufactur-ingForestry and loggingForestry support activities
Year
Mill
ions
of
2012
U.S
. dol
lars
Economic Impacts – Direct Effects Every 1 MMCF harvested & processed in
California: 15 jobs in sawmills + 3 jobs in residue-utilizing sector 18 jobs in forestry, logging, forestry support 2-10 jobs in bioenergy 31 jobs in veneer sector
Questions?Contacts:
Chelsea P. McIver Todd A. Morganchelsea.mciver@business.umt.edutodd.morgan@business.umt.edu (406) 243-5614 (406) 243-5113
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