mlb prediction

MLB PredictionGroup 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳2011.06.07Intro CS - Project presentation

MLB Major League Baseball

Idea Predict MLB games by own-made

formulas. Analyze separately on pitchers and

batters.

Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR

Inning (局 ) At Bats (AB, 打數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 ) Hits (H, 安打數 ) Home Runs (HR，全壘打數 )

Total bases (TB) A single (一壘安打 ) -> TB+1 A double (二壘安打 ) -> TB+2

Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR

Inning (局 ) At Bats (AB, 打數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 ) Hits (H, 安打數 ) Home Runs (HR，全壘打數 )

↑打擊率Batting average

↑Total Bases

(after adjustment)

Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)

+HR The scores that the batters can get

in a game

Formula - pitchers

Starters先發投手

Relievers

救援投手 pitchers

Formula – starters {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/

α+HR/G total Batters Faced (BF, 面對打者數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Innings Pitched (IP, 投球局數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Games (G, 投球場數 ) BA’ (BA of the opponent, 被打擊率 ) α (own- set scalar for adjustment)

↑number of batter

the possibility that a batter can be on

base↓

↑BA of the opponent

Formula – starters {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/

α+HR/G The scores that a starting pitcher may lose

in a game

Formula - relievers Starters : scheduled

Discussing each pitcher separately Relievers : unscheduled

Use the average statistics

Formula – relievers WHIP×(H/IP)×IP‘/α

Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) IP’ (average innings that the relievers may

pitch, depending on the starter) H/IP: the average hits that a pitcher may

allow in a inning

Ratio 60% pitcher (starters and relievers)

Ratio of starters and relievers depend on the average innings that a starter can pitch

Starters 66.7% last-3-game 33.3% last-10-game

Relievers 100% Season

40% batter 62.5% last-7-day 37.5% season

Result

Result

Future Adding more factors Standings (戰績 ) Home/away (主客場 ) Fielding (守備 )

Goal 60+% success rate

The End Thank you for listening!