taylor 준칙에 의한 국내 적정 기준금리 수준의 추정

Taylor Fixed Income Insight

02-6915-5682

[email protected]

Executive Summary[] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

Taylor 4.00% 4.00% 4.50% 3.00% Taylor 4.00% 4.00%

4.00% 3 5.00% 4.00% 3 5.00% 3.50% 4.00% 3 4.00% 5.00% 5% Flattening

3 5.00% A Flattening

[] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

, , , [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

1 : : [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

2 : : [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

3 : : A~D [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

4 , , [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

[] 02-6915-5682 [email protected] : : ,

2000 2001 2008 8 2001 2006 6 0% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

, 3% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

(-) (-) (-) , 4.00% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

G20 [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

1 CD 91 40bp 2001 2008 CD 91 CD 91 1 20bp 2001 [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

2 1 3 30bp 2001 5 3 30bp 2001 [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

3 10 5 40bp 2001 20 10 20bp 2006 [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

3 5% 4.00% 3 5% 3.50% , 4.00% 3 5% 3 4% , 5% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

3 5.00% 2005 3 5% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

3 4% 5.00% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

Bearish Flattening 5% [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

- , [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

, 90~100 [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

* [] 02-6915-5682 [email protected]

2007200820092010P2011F2012FGDP()(%)5.3 2.8 -0.6 4.8 4.2 4.5 ()(%)3.9 1.6 -2.0 3.7 3.3 3.7 (%)1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.7 2.5 2.9 (%)2.9 0.5 -4.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 (%)2.3 -1.2 -5.2 2.8 1.5 2.1 (%)14.2 9.6 9.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 CPI (%)2.9 3.8 -0.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 (%)2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 (%)0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 (%)4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.0 3.0 2.8 (%, eop)4.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.50 (%, eop)4.00 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 (%, eop)0.50 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 (%, eop)7.47 5.31 5.31 5.56 6.06 6.56 WTI($/bbl, avg)72.3 99.5 61.9 78.0 88.0 95.0 /(avg)117.8 103.4 93.6 87.4 82.8 91.0 /(eop)111.7 90.7 93.1 80.0 85.0 100.0 /(avg)1.371 1.471 1.394 1.335 1.390 1.380 /(eop)1.462 1.390 1.435 1.400 1.360 1.430 /(avg)7.610 6.948 6.831 6.773 6.568 6.350 /(eop)7.304 6.831 6.826 6.630 6.500 6.160


2007200820092010P2011F2012F(%)5.1 2.3 0.2 6.2 4.5 5.0 (%)5.1 2.0 1.3 4.1 3.9 4.5 (%)5.1 1.3 0.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 (%)5.4 4.3 5.0 3.8 3.0 4.5 (%)3.5 0.0 -15.0 17.7 4.3 5.0 (%)4.2 -1.9 -0.2 7.7 4.5 4.7 (%)1.4 -2.8 4.4 -0.6 2.8 4.6 (%)9.3 -1.0 -9.1 26.0 7.0 4.8 (%)12.6 6.6 -0.8 14.2 7.5 7.7 (%)11.7 4.4 -8.2 18.1 7.1 7.3 (B$)371.5 422.0 363.5 468.7 522.6 580.7 (%)14.1 13.6 -13.9 28.9 11.5 11.1 (B$)356.8 435.3 323.1 422.8 488.8 553.2 (%)15.3 22.0 -25.8 30.9 15.6 13.2 (B$)14.6 -13.3 40.4 46.0 33.9 27.6 (B$)5.9 -5.8 42.7 36.0 22.0 15.0 (B$)7.1 -50.1 26.4 ---(%)2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.5 2.9 (%)3.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 /(avg) 929.2 1,102.6 1,276.4 1,153.0 1,060.0 1,020.0 /(eop) 938.2 1,257.5 1,167.6 1,100.0 1,060.0 980.0 /100(avg) 789.8 1,076.6 1,363.1 1,319.2 1,281.0 1,120.9 /100(eop) 833.3 1,393.9 1,262.8 1,375.0 1,247.1 980.0 /(avg) 1,272.7 1,606.8 1,774.4 1,539.3 1,473.4 1,407.6 /(eop) 1,381.3 1,776.2 1,674.3 1,540.0 1,441.6 1,401.4 /(avg) 122.1 159.1 186.9 170.2 161.4 160.6 /(eop) 128.5 184.1 171.1 165.9 163.1 159.1


2010F 2011F 2012F1Q2Q3Q4Q(P)1Q(F)2Q(F)3Q(F)4Q(F)1Q(F)2Q(F)3Q(F)4Q(F)(%, YoY)8.1 7.2 4.5 5.2 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.4 (%, QoQ)2.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 (%, YoY)5.7 3.6 3.2 3.9 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.7 (%, YoY)6.3 3.7 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.7 (%, YoY)3.8 3.2 2.9 5.1 1.1 2.0 3.8 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.9 (%, YoY)21.9 25.7 14.7 11.1 6.4 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.2 5.3 (%, YoY)11.4 6.4 7.0 6.4 5.6 5.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.1 (%, YoY)2.3 -2.9 -2.1 -0.7 -1.0 4.1 3.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 (%, YoY)29.9 30.2 25.2 19.7 17.3 7.9 2.2 2.1 3.2 4.7 5.4 5.9 (%, YoY)16.6 14.1 11.3 14.6 12.2 6.5 6.1 5.4 6.7 7.3 7.8 9.1 (%, YoY)21.0 19.3 15.0 17.1 12.7 6.5 5.5 4.4 6.2 7.0 7.3 8.7 (B$)101.1 120.3 117.3 130.1 113.2 133.5 130.2 145.7 129.1 148.2 143.2 160.3 (%, YoY)35.8 33.1 23.7 25.1 12.0 11.0 11.0 12.0 14.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 (B$)98.1 105.8 105.7 113.2 109.9 123.8 121.5 133.6 126.4 141.1 136.1 149.6 (%, YoY)37.4 43.0 24.5 21.9 12.0 17.0 15.0 18.0 15.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 (B$)3.0 14.5 11.6 16.9 3.3 9.7 8.7 12.2 2.7 7.1 7.1 10.7 (B$)1.3 10.3 12.1 12.3 1.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 -2.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 (B$)5.7 -4.7 0.0---------(%, YoY)2.7 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 (%, SA)4.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 /(avg) 1,144.1 1,163.5 1,185.6 1,120.0 1,075.0 1,055.0 1,050.0 1,060.0 1,045.0 1,025.0 1,015.0 995.0 /(eop) 1,130.8 1,210.3 1,142.0 1,100.0 1,065.0 1,050.0 1,055.0 1,060.0 1,035.0 1,020.0 1,010.0 980.0 /100(avg) 1,261.4 1,263.6 1,380.5 1,382.7 1,327.2 1,286.6 1,280.5 1,232.6 1,201.1 1,164.8 1,103.3 1,025.8 /100(eop) 1,217.7 1,364.6 1,363.3 1,375.0 1,314.8 1,280.5 1,271.1 1,247.1 1,176.1 1,133.3 1,052.1 980.0 /(avg) 1,584.3 1,482.1 1,527.9 1,556.8 1,505.0 1,498.1 1,449.0 1,441.6 1,410.8 1,404.3 1,410.9 1,403.0 /(eop) 1,518.2 1,475.4 1,556.0 1,540.0 1,491.0 1,491.0 1,445.4 1,441.6 1,407.6 1,407.6 1,424.1 1,401.4 /(avg) 167.6 170.5 175.0 168.0 162.4 160.3 160.3 162.6 161.0 160.2 160.9 160.5 /(eop) 165.7 178.0 170.8 165.9 161.4 160.1 161.3 163.1 160.0 160.1 161.1 159.1

taylor 준칙에 의한 국내 적정 기준금리 수준의 추정

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