詹姆士看天下 2015/03/30

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.



124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%



Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/3/27

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.32 393 388 297

6.58 481 476 335

9.39 861 835 461

3.96 255 252 218

() ()()()()



: Bloomberg 2015/3/27

4

(%)

5.71

(&)

4.32

6.58

%

%

9.39

-1.53

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

0.09

0.15

0.28

0.44

0.52

0.73

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1



1.1

-0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2

-2.5 -2.7

-0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.4 -1.4

-1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.5 -3

-2

-1

0

1

2

5


4

MSCI MSCI

(%)



6

l l l 5%

7%

1.6

12.5 14.0

1.4

6.9

0.5 0.2 2.5

1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1

-0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16

CR

B

(%)


119.13 $1198.75

1.962% $1.0889 $48.87



2.0

1.1 0.5 0.5

-0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6

-2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.8 -3.1

-3.6

-4.2 -5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

7

: Bloomberg 2015/3/27 ==225=

(%)



(2.0%)

(-4.2%)

(-3.6%)

(-3.1%)12

8



9

12518360016%3570

27%2015GDP5.8%6.1%

587600

2015/3/24

0522 ()

0548 ()



10

3

20046301%2.25%0.625%2

1997661

242015

2015/3/26

()()

8332 () 8333 () 8334 ()

ING(L)Renta()

4908 () 4922 () 4923 ()

3.0%7.8%

Bloomberg 2015/3/25



11

Bloomberg



12

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/27()



13

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/27()



: Bloomberg

3

14

3/30()

2 0.3% 0.3%

2 0.2% -0.2%

2 0.4% 1.7%

3/31()

3 96.4 96.4

3 -0.1% -0.3%

2014GDP 2.7% 2.7%

4/1()

3ADP 22.5 21.2

3ISM 52.5 52.9

3MarkitPMI 51.9 51.9

3PMI 49.7 49.9

4/2() 2() -413 -418

2 -0.4% -0.2%

4/3() 3 24.8 29.5

3 5.5% 5.5%



34

4

15



(60%)

4

10 6.3%

(40%)

6

(2015/3/30)

16



17

211.4%0.2%20.2%-0.7%28.22929.1Q4GDP2.2%2.4.%4.4%



PMI55.354.1PMI352.43IFO106.8107.9107.3520147

1030

2BCCC

18



(ADB)20156.3%7.8%7.2% (AIIB)36

19



26380

23.9%3-6%5.75%

265()31

20



2 488 490 482

2CPI 0.2% 0.2% -0.7%

2 53.9 46.4 50.0

3 55.3 54.6 55.1

2 -1.4% 0.2% 2.0%

2014GDP 2.2% 2.4% 2.2%

3 93.0 92.0 91.2

3 51.9 51.5 51.0

3 -3.7 -6.0 -6.7

3 52.4 51.5 51.1

4Gfk 10.0 9.8 9.7

3IFO 103.9 103.0 102.5

: Bloomberg

21



2CPI 2.0% 2.3% 2.4%

2 -1.8% -1.5% -2.0%

2 3.5% 3.5% 3.6%

3PMI 49.2 50.5 50.7

2014GDP 2.7% -- 3.3%

2014GDP -0.2% -0.7% -0.6%

2 5.9% 5.7% 5.3%

3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

2 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

5.75% 5.75% 5.75%

: Bloomberg

22



(%)

MSCI 1744.82 -1.68 -1.58 1.38 2.73 2.06 4.99 2061.02 -2.23 -2.07 -0.93 4.50 0.10 10.95

1240.41 -2.05 0.57 2.25 12.59 2.96 7.69 395.54 -2.10 0.85 15.99 15.29 15.47 18.51

265.03 -2.00 0.03 15.32 18.33 14.79 12.90 225 19285.63 -1.40 2.59 10.51 19.24 10.51 31.23

4651.12 -1.33 2.07 5.92 11.06 5.92 31.67

3691.10 2.04 11.50 16.59 56.15 14.11 80.78 MSCI 958.11 -1.18 -3.25 0.37 -4.70 0.19 -2.72

MSCI 472.32 -0.95 -1.45 3.82 2.66 3.24 7.25 MSCI 298.26 -1.26 -4.83 -2.07 -20.35 0.57 -25.06 MSCI 2404.95 -2.48 -9.38 -11.63 -24.15 -11.83 -23.72 MSCI 270.46 -0.96 -4.77 -1.39 -10.75 -0.11 -14.59

Bloomberg 123.13 -0.07 0.54 2.13 4.03 1.63 5.82 Bloomberg 133.84 -0.08 -0.16 1.35 2.56 1.14 6.77 Bloomberg 139.57 -0.06 0.09 2.63 3.74 2.08 6.44

Bloomberg 147.10 0.52 -0.91 0.55 -1.96 0.53 -2.37 Bloomberg 153.57 0.44 -0.36 2.62 0.46 2.49 1.29 Bloomberg 162.93 0.15 -0.34 2.59 2.92 2.55 5.20 ETF 47.63 -1.53 -0.52 -1.56 -2.17 1.58 2.02

Bloomberg 143.64 0.73 0.32 2.00 0.39 1.99 4.83 Bloomberg 125.07 0.28 -0.69 0.71 -0.68 0.52 3.27 Bloomberg 152.05 0.09 -0.02 3.28 6.17 3.09 12.06

Bloomberg 2015/3/27

23



(%) ()

MSCI 226.63 -0.67 -3.85 -5.16 -18.77 -4.70 -18.62 MSCI 227.16 -1.42 -5.17 1.34 -2.94 1.84 -5.75

MSCI 103.11 -1.76 -0.66 -0.33 1.36 0.34 2.05 MSCI 196.35 -1.89 -0.83 5.12 11.96 5.45 11.57 MSCI 204.58 -0.71 -2.38 1.68 5.82 2.33 7.83

MSCI 203.16 -1.82 -1.85 1.27 3.04 1.93 2.07 MSCI 143.33 -2.50 -2.61 0.39 5.60 1.45 15.64 MSCI 69.88 -0.74 -3.08 1.61 -0.44 2.22 -0.87 MSCI 116.24 -1.37 -2.71 -2.71 -1.84 -5.54 -1.51 MSCI 216.61 -2.04 1.57 7.60 11.39 8.36 21.09 NBI 3636.19 -5.25 3.02 14.18 27.18 14.44 51.74

AMEX 166.22 -2.12 -13.49 0.97 -15.01 1.34 -26.06 REITs FTSE 14766.25 -2.93 0.68 2.02 17.05 3.64 23.09 REITs FTSE 1805.52 -3.02 1.10 2.29 19.02 4.00 24.16 REITs FTSE 1504.20 -1.22 1.73 20.86 28.65 20.03 42.56 REITs FTSE 1564.60 0.70 -0.87 1.68 7.48 2.87 15.28

(/) 1198.75 1.36 -1.19 0.23 -1.61 1.17 -7.17 (/) 16.96 1.24 2.15 7.28 -3.09 7.93 -13.95

(/) 6055.00 0.17 2.71 -3.92 -9.87 -3.89 -7.72 (/) 56.41 1.97 -9.86 -5.11 -41.85 -1.60 -47.69 (/) 48.87 4.94 -1.79 -10.71 -47.75 -8.26 -51.75

CRB 215.16 0.49 -3.98 -7.84 -22.75 -6.43 -29.50 896.64 -0.54 -2.82 -8.92 -1.28 -7.05 -22.91


24



(%)

1.0889 0.63 -2.74 -10.39 -14.16 -9.99 -20.75 119.13 0.76 0.42 1.29 -8.08 0.55 -14.23 1.4879 -0.47 -3.62 -4.11 -8.39 -4.48 -10.43

0.9618 1.37 -0.78 2.91 -1.09 3.38 -7.82 1.2609 -0.45 -0.75 -7.71 -11.46 -7.84 -12.51 0.7752 -0.30 -0.72 -4.67 -11.08 -5.17 -16.28

1103.31 1.74 -0.48 -0.51 -4.48 -1.12 -2.89 31.2630 0.68 0.62 1.57 -2.47 1.26 -2.26

6.2157 -0.18 0.86 0.14 -1.00 -0.16 -0.04 13065.00 0.45 -1.02 -4.78 -6.86 -5.18 -12.38

62.4175 0.08 -0.93 2.02 -1.43 1.00 -3.36 32.5700 -0.03 -0.65 1.17 -0.52 1.04 -0.18

1.3694 0.67 -0.47 -3.34 -6.97 -3.21 -7.67 3.6840 1.32 -2.17 -5.06 -10.97 -5.07 -10.64

44.7790 0.38 -1.53 -0.13 0.68 -0.13 0.58

12.0438 -0.21 -3.20 -3.50 -6.34 -3.93 -12.12 2.6105 -1.41 -3.92 -11.18 -12.69 -10.55 -16.25 57.8492 2.44 6.75 1.12 -31.81 4.99 -38.42 3.7646 1.41 -1.58 -6.00 -12.47 -5.87 -19.49 275.74 1.61 -1.95 -6.10 -10.90 -5.11 -17.96

4.0613 0.97 -2.43 -9.36 -14.43 -8.85 -19.94

3.2497 -0.58 -12.57 -16.76 -24.68 -18.22 -30.49

15.2373 -1.20 -1.89 -3.08 -11.41 -3.19 -14.15 8.8087 -0.12 -0.94 -2.92 -3.77 -3.90 -9.18


25



(%) () (bp)

30 2.5404 3.5 -5.0 -27.6 -67.4 -21.1 -98.7

10 1.9615 3.1 -3.1 -28.8 -56.6 -21.0 -72.0

0.3750 4.6 4.0 4.5 -14.8 4.6 -25.7

0.2070 2.3 -12.1 -38.2 -76.5 -33.4 -132.9 0.2070 2.3 -12.1 -38.2 -76.5 -33.4 -132.9 0.5010 5.9 -10.3 -39.6 -81.1 -32.5 -155.7

1.3540 15.0 2.3 -63.1 -103.2 -53.6 -195.3 1.3230 14.2 6.3 -40.5 -87.4 -28.8 -192.9 1.7580 12.5 -7.0 -95.6 -133.9 -92.9 -230.2

2.3100 5.1 15.3 -19.8 -69.5 -20.8 -190.8 8.5000 39.0 12.0 61.0 -120.0 48.0 -213.0 11.7957 -79.9 -113.3 -123.6 245.8 -121.1 273.2 3.3500 11.0 44.0 -25.0 -118.0 -25.0 -244.0

7.8360 6.1 21.2 -22.8 -39.4 -13.3 -51.6

13.2380 5.6 95.0 80.4 138.0 87.4 51.8

5.8840 14.0 25.2 -3.9 -21.0 4.0 -26.5

2.1750 -3.2 -18.0 -47.5 -74.5 -43.0 -136.8 7.3260 -10.7 26.4 -55.7 -91.6 -47.0 -78.8 7.7770 3.1 4.9 -20.4 -66.6 -8.0 -104.8

9 2.5880 -9.6 -2.5 -18.9 -82.5 -1.3 -133.8


26



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詹姆士看天下 2015/03/30

Economy & Finance