詹姆士看天下 2015/09/21

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/09/21



122.03

103.20

35.87

90.76

39.7349.50

2

2008

2014

() -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56%

Bloomberg() 2015/8/312005/12/31

%



Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/9/18

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

5.28 477 481 297

7.55 562 580 335

8.50 764 748 461

4.36 302 309 218

()()()()()



: Bloomberg 2015/9/18

4

(%)

4.36 (&)

5.28

7.55

%

%

8.50

-0.33

-0.17

-0.13

-0.11

0.17

0.31

0.42

0.70

1.08

1.20

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5



4.1 3.4 3.4 3.2

2.7 2.5

0.6 0.1

2.0 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.7

-0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -1.2 -2

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)



6

l

l

-2.5

1.5

-9.0

2.8

0.1

-1.3 -2.2

2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0

-0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.9

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

CR

B

(%)


119.98 $1139.02

2.134%

$1.1298 $44.68



5.3 5.0

4.1

3.2 2.8

2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8

0.6 0.5

-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1

-2.0

-3.2 -4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

: Bloomberg 2015/9/18 ==225=

(%)



(5.3%)

Anadolu EfesBIM Birlesik Magazalar17.26%8.19%

(5.0%)SABMiller20.14%AngloGold Ashanti 15%

(-3.2%)31003000

(-2.0%)

8



9

Bloomberg



10

()Bloomberg : 2015/9/18()



11

()Bloomberg : 2015/9/18()



: Bloomberg

12

9/21() 8 550 559

9/22() 9 -7.0 -6.9

9/23()

9Markit 53.4 53.0

9 47.6 47.3

GDP 1.0% 1.0%

9/24()

8 -2.3% 2.0%

8 51.5 50.7

9IFO 107.9 108.3

9/25()

GDP 3.7% 3.7%

9 87.0 85.7

8 0.1% 0.2%

8GDP8



8H7

FOMC

11009

13



(60%)

9 QE 3000H7

10%

(40%)

(2015/9/21)

14



0%-0.25%2%17()615133201612017

311940Kevin Mccarthy

15



835.5%

70.6%7760.6%1.9%

16



6911325560.85%20941876.27

Fed1580(2%)(QQE)2%

30.89%84.3%

17



14()1320

Elvira Nabiullina

18



8 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%

8 -0.4% -0.2% 0.9%

8CPI -0.1% -0.1% 0.1%

FOMC 0.25% 0.44% 0.25%

81 112.6 116.0 120.6

8 117.0 115.9 113.0

MBA -7.0% - -6.2%

8 0.1% 0.2% -0.2%

7 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%

8CPI 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%

ZEW 12.1 18.3 25.0

8CPI 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%

: Bloomberg

19



() 80 80 80

7 -0.8% - -0.6%

8 5,697 5,400 2,684

7 5.2% 5.9% 7.0%

GDP() 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

8 -20.7% - -10.3%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

7.50% 7.50% 7.50%

8 -4.3% -4.5% -4.7%

8 -9.1% -8.9% -9.1%

8 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%

6 9.6% 9.2% 9.3%

7 -3.5% -3.8% -2.7%

: Bloomberg

20



(%)

MSCI 1630.69 0.23 -1.23 -8.12 -8.11 -4.62 -6.30 1958.03 -0.15 -0.65 -7.20 -7.12 -4.90 -2.60

1163.35 0.48 0.57 -9.44 -8.14 -3.43 1.43 354.77 -0.27 -1.80 -7.99 -12.19 3.57 1.79

250.62 -0.32 -0.02 -5.73 -7.33 8.55 9.72 225 18070.21 -1.06 -7.03 -10.43 -7.62 3.55 10.72

4563.14 -0.08 -5.31 -8.86 -3.20 3.92 9.36

3097.92 -3.20 -11.68 -30.82 -14.36 -4.23 32.99 MSCI 829.86 3.41 2.15 -14.85 -14.41 -13.22 -21.26

MSCI 408.55 3.42 2.91 -14.23 -14.33 -10.70 -14.58 MSCI 273.38 3.71 3.99 -12.65 -9.50 -7.82 -30.03 MSCI 2010.77 2.50 -1.24 -21.52 -18.46 -26.28 -40.96 MSCI 242.15 4.08 1.83 -11.68 -11.33 -10.57 -24.08

Bloomberg 122.85 0.31 0.32 1.57 -0.34 1.40 4.37 Bloomberg 131.00 -0.13 -0.65 0.47 -2.30 -1.00 0.71 Bloomberg 136.60 0.42 0.41 0.57 -2.22 -0.09 2.00

Bloomberg 146.11 -0.11 0.17 -2.26 0.40 -0.15 -3.81 Bloomberg 151.05 -0.33 -0.26 -2.75 -0.87 0.81 -2.15 Bloomberg 161.07 -0.17 -0.67 0.31 -0.96 1.38 1.18 ETF 45.97 0.17 1.28 -5.12 -4.96 -1.96 -6.64

Bloomberg 142.63 0.70 -0.41 -1.19 0.91 1.28 -0.23 Bloomberg 121.70 1.08 0.69 -2.85 -1.57 -2.19 -3.55 Bloomberg 150.47 1.20 0.34 0.63 0.07 2.02 4.98

Bloomberg 2015/9/18

21



(%) ()

MSCI 187.33 0.96 -1.04 -17.54 -17.90 -21.23 -35.20 MSCI 189.57 -0.57 -3.60 -17.62 -17.73 -15.01 -21.97

MSCI 95.41 -0.61 -3.47 -9.72 -9.10 -7.15 -8.97 MSCI 190.66 0.90 1.05 -5.09 -4.73 2.39 5.62 MSCI 197.89 1.97 -0.62 -3.63 -3.96 -1.02 0.51

MSCI 185.90 -0.64 -1.68 -9.31 -10.16 -6.73 -8.13 MSCI 137.17 -0.23 1.98 -6.69 -6.69 -2.91 -0.39 MSCI 66.71 -1.19 -4.10 -6.33 -5.24 -2.41 -7.21 MSCI 109.93 1.61 -5.23 -5.23 -6.73 -10.67 -8.36 MSCI 211.10 0.70 -0.70 -4.74 -4.54 5.61 7.11 NBI 3732.68 0.42 4.75 -5.51 -2.73 17.47 29.62

AMEX 116.10 8.27 -8.38 -25.72 -31.63 -29.22 -44.31 REITs FTSE 13643.59 2.85 -2.60 -2.71 -10.31 -4.24 6.56 REITs FTSE 1662.98 3.08 -2.65 -2.08 -10.67 -4.21 7.92 REITs FTSE 1418.48 0.31 -4.13 0.65 -6.85 13.19 19.68 REITs FTSE 1372.74 2.97 -2.46 -8.62 -11.64 -9.74 -6.31

(/) 1139.02 2.82 -2.03 -5.24 -3.82 -4.00 -6.44 (/) 15.17 3.82 -1.04 -6.55 -10.74 -3.52 -14.59

(/) 5254.00 -2.16 4.35 -8.71 -7.34 -16.60 -23.22 (/) 47.47 -1.39 4.64 -24.52 -14.01 -17.02 -51.65 (/) 44.68 0.11 10.80 -24.81 -1.97 -15.86 -51.50

CRB 194.18 -1.29 1.49 -12.58 -9.31 -15.56 -30.50 825.67 -1.66 -3.65 -6.15 -7.13 -14.40 -11.44


22



(%)

1.1298 -0.35 -0.72 -0.33 3.27 -6.56 -12.02 119.98 0.51 1.85 2.96 -0.08 -0.03 -9.16 1.5536 0.69 -0.99 -1.81 3.92 -0.25 -5.03

0.9690 0.02 -2.25 -4.85 -0.23 2.67 -2.94 1.3226 0.29 -0.21 -6.87 -5.25 -12.08 -16.44 0.7189 1.37 -1.71 -6.95 -8.74 -12.04 -18.96

1162.80 1.83 1.90 -6.28 -4.94 -6.96 -11.24 32.4150 0.63 0.05 -5.16 -2.53 -2.34 -6.69

6.3643 0.17 0.47 -2.45 -2.12 -2.50 -3.50 14374.00 -0.36 -3.99 -7.42 -8.32 -13.82 -16.63

65.6738 1.30 -0.55 -2.96 -4.54 -4.00 -7.35 35.6500 1.03 -0.09 -5.71 -8.96 -7.89 -9.71

1.3997 0.77 0.34 -4.84 -2.75 -5.56 -9.50 4.1965 2.79 -1.81 -12.08 -12.97 -17.62 -23.57

46.2700 1.34 0.11 -2.91 -3.12 -3.35 -3.99

13.3284 1.66 -2.26 -8.82 -10.29 -12.80 -15.80 3.0052 1.33 -2.82 -11.26 -15.36 -22.26 -25.40 66.4950 2.21 3.91 -18.98 -11.75 -8.77 -41.88 3.7218 -0.29 -0.21 -1.29 0.87 -4.80 -12.55 275.10 0.47 0.40 -0.46 0.74 -4.95 -11.69

3.9118 -0.36 -0.24 1.28 3.13 -5.26 -12.35

3.9454 -1.93 -12.12 -22.44 -18.62 -32.64 -40.06

16.6523 1.11 2.13 -7.78 -10.24 -11.31 -20.17 9.3788 -0.29 -1.43 -3.58 -6.28 -9.74 -10.28


23



(%) () (bp)

30 2.9356 -1.7 8.0 -19.4 42.5 18.4 -41.2

10 2.1336 -5.5 -5.9 -20.1 21.4 -3.8 -48.1

0.3140 -3.1 -6.3 -13.5 -5.2 -1.5 -25.5

0.6630 1.0 2.1 -14.5 46.6 12.2 -41.8

1.0320 -2.7 5.3 -17.6 55.8 20.6 -40.8

1.7630 -7.1 -5.2 -53.0 45.5 -12.7 -67.5

1.9440 -16.5 -5.6 -33.8 67.1 33.3 -33.3

2.5140 -9.8 3.0 -59.9 78.2 -17.3 -70.3

2.8960 -8.6 13.5 -38.7 47.1 37.8 -31.2

10.5300 -18.0 24.0 76.0 222.0 251.0 109.0

11.1317 -31.6 7.3 28.5 -196.4 -187.5 154.4

3.4700 -12.0 0.0 -58.0 -10.0 -13.0 -119.0

8.3350 -13.8 5.9 -3.6 43.6 36.6 11.7

15.8520 58.5 220.1 329.9 286.9 348.8 425.2

6.0030 -10.0 -4.2 -10.5 15.0 15.9 6.7

2.1920 -4.1 -8.0 -31.9 -7.8 -41.3 -82.7

9.0030 -26.8 32.3 50.4 152.0 120.7 73.8

* 7.6975 -7.5 -5.5 -6.4 -9.6 -16.0 -75.6

9 2.7660 -31.5 10.1 -17.6 2.1 3.7 -91.7


24



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詹姆士看天下 2015/09/21

Economy & Finance