현대 , 동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

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현대 , 동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향. 이은영 DBS Vickers Securities 애널리스트. Asia Steel Market after Korean new capacity operation. Dec 2009 Eun-Young Lee. Content & Summary. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

1

현대 , 동부제철 가동이한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

이은영DBS Vickers Securities 애널리스트

Page 2: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. DBS Vickers Research and DBS Bank accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Asia Steel Market after Korean new capacity

operation Dec 2009

Eun-Young Lee

Page 3: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1.1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian CountriesOverview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel

3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic

5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6. New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going forward.

7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

Page 4: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Overview on steel industry of 3 countries

Source: DBS Vickers

   Crude steel ouput

Steel production

ASU Export ImportProduction-ASU

Export-Import

Korea 08 53.60 64.50 58.57 20.79 28.94 5.93 -8.15

9F 49.00 57.00 45.80 20.22 20.25 11.20 -0.03

China 08 500.49 581.73 537.94 59.18 15.63 43.79 43.55

  09F 555.31 670.26 663.50 23.67 17.16 6.76 6.51

Japan 08 105.50 91.32 73.89 34.50 7.20 17.43 27.30

  09F 80.10 70.00 53.00 29.71 2.60 17.00 27.11

 Korea, China and Japan : Steel: Demand & Supply

Page 5: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2.2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steelsteel

3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic

5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6. New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going forward.

7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

Page 6: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Korea : Net Exporter

 Korea Steel: Demand & Supply Korea Steel : Import volume

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09F

(m ton)

Net Export(Production-ASU)

Production

ASU

Net export volume : 15m ton(‘98), 5.8m ton(’08)

0

5

10

15

20

25

85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09F

(mil Ton)

20

25

30

35

40

45(%)Steel product exportweight % to production

Export volume : 5.5m ton(‘98), 20.8m ton(’08)

Increasing export volume but stagnant net export volume

Page 7: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Korea : but Importing huge volume

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

(m ton)

Import of products as raw material(A-B)

Import including products used as raw materials(A)

Import(B)

(A) Import including products used as raw material:5.7m ton(’97)→28.9m ton (’08)(B) Import of steel product : 3m ton(‘97) → 15m ton(’08) (A-B) Import of raw material steel products : 2.7m ton(’97) → 13.9m ton (’08)Weight of import to total steel demand : 12% (‘97) → 36%(’08)

Korea Steel : Import volume

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

(m ton)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

(%)

Import including products used as raw materials(A)

Weight to Total demand(Domestic + Export)

Surged import of steel products used as raw materials.

Page 8: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Importing more steel products as raw materials

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

Turned to net importer of steel during ’02~’08 : 1.2m ton(’02) → 8.2m ton (’08)

Korea Steel : Net export vs. net export considering import of products used as raw materials

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

(m ton)

Export-Import including products used as raw materials

Net export

Expect to switch net exporter in 2009 : 1.3m ton(’09F) → 2.7m ton (’10F)

Page 9: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Switch to net importer of flat steel

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

Long Steel : enlarged net import, 0.3m ton (’97) → 2.8m ton(’08) Flat Steel : 3.8m ton of net export(’97) → switch to net importer in 2008(1.3m ton)

Korea Steel : Net export (import) by steel products

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

(m ton)

Long steel

Flat steel

Flat Steel including raw materials

Page 10: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

10

Source: Bloomberg, DBS Vickers

Net import volume : slab(4.4m ton) and HRC(3.7m ton) in 2008, c 12% of consumption of each product.

Aggravated shortage of raw materials for flat products

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

(m ton)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0(%)

Net import volume(L)

Weight of net import to the total consumption(R)

 Korea Steel: slab import  Korea Steel: HRC import

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

(m ton)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30(%)

Net import volume(L)

Weight of net import to the total consumption(R)

Page 11: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

11

Japan and China, the main supplier of HRC

Source: Kosa, DBS Vickers

Korea : HRC import by origin

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

(%)Excluding China & Japan Import from China

Import from Japan Weight % of Japan

Weight % of China

Japan : 69%(’03) → 41%(’08) → 58%(’09.1~9) China : 9%(’03) → 52%(’08)→ 18%(’09.1~9)

Page 12: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

12

Japan, the major supplier of Slab

Source: Kosa, DBS Vickers

Korea : Slab import by origin

Japan : 22%(’03) →25%(’08) → 51%(’09.1~9)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009.1~9

(m ton)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60(%)

ow

Australia

Brazil

CIS

China

Japan

Weight % ofJapan

Page 13: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel

3.3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic

5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6. New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going forward.

7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

Page 14: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

14

Japan, the biggest steel exporter in the world

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Japan : Crude steel production/nominal consumption and net export

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

(m ton)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45(m ton)Net Export(R) Consumption(L)

Production(L)

Net Export volume : 42m ton(’76)→ 11m ton(’91) → 36m ton(’07) → 32m ton(’08)

Page 15: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

15

Japan, overcapacity to surpass domestic demandJapan : Overcapacity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09E

(m ton)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160(%)Capacity surplus(capacity-production, L)

Over Capcity(capacity-consumption, L)Overcapacity ratio to consumption(R)

Demand/Overcapacity (m ton) : 73.6/78.7(’85)→ 68.9/60.1(’99) → 73.9/55.9(’08) → 53/77(’09)

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Page 16: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

16

Japan, Utilization rate is a key variable for OP margins

Japan : Utilization rate vs. OP margins

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

(%)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(%)

OP margins(L) Utilization rate(R)

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Page 17: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

17

Japan: Export, a inevitable option to maintain util.rates

Japan : Export and Import

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09E

(m ton)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45(%)

Japanes steel export

Export ratio to production

Import ration to production

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Page 18: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Japan : flat steel products are major export products

 Japan : Heavy Plate Japan : HRC

Lager export volume : HRC → Galvanized sheet → Heavy Plate → CRC

- 1000

- 500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

91 94 97 00 03 06 09.1~10

(k ton)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30(%)

Net Export

Export ration to prodcution

- 4,000

- 2,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

(k ton)

- 40

- 20

20

40

60

80

(%)

Net Export

Export ration to prodcution

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Page 19: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Japan : High export ratio of flat steel products

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

89 92 95 98 01 04 07

(k ton)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

(%)

Net Export

Export ration to prodcution

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

89 92 95 98 01 04 07

(k ton)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

(%)

Net Export

Export ration to prodcution

Higher export ratio : Galvanized sheet → CRC → HRC→ Heavy Plate

 Japan : CRC Japan : Galvanized sheet

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Page 20: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel

3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4.4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic problematic

5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6. New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going forward.

7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

Page 21: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

21

China, a determinant of global supply and demand

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

China : Crude steel production/nominal consumption and net export

Net Export volume : -30m ton(’03)→ 45.8m ton(’07) → 6.7m ton(’09F)

-40

60

160

260

360

460

560

660

760

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

(m ton)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

(m ton)

Net Steel Export(Crude Steel)ConsumptionProduction

Page 22: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

22

China, ongoing capacity expansion & lower util. rates

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

China : Crude steel capacity/output and utilization rates

Additional capacity increase : 80m ton(’09F)→ 43m ton(’10F) → 21m ton(’11F)Utilization rates : 89%(’06)→ 75%(’09F)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F

(m ton)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95(%)Crude steel output

CapacityUtilization rates

Page 23: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

23

China, Sustainable import and less export of semi

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

China : Export/Import and Net export of semi finished steel product

Import : 18.8m ton(’06)→ 15.4m ton(’08) → 17.2m ton(’09F)Net export of semi-finished products : 8.7m ton(’06)→ 1m ton(’08) → -0.2m ton(’09F)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

(m ton)

(5.5)

(3.5)

(1.5)

0.5

2.5

4.5

6.5

8.5

10.5

(m ton)

Net Steel Export(Semi-f inished steel product, R)

Exports based on crude steel

Imports based on crude steel

Page 24: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

24

Chinese demand growth is stronger than expected

China: Nominal steel consumption China : Net export vs. steel prices

Source: Bloomberg, DBS

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

03/9 04/9 05/9 06/9 07/9 08/9 09/9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000(US$/ton)

Net Export(Import) of Steel P roducts

HR coil spot price in China

(m ton)

Net import

Net export

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

03.1 04.3 05.5 06.7 07.9 08.11

(m ton)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60(%)Chg % of nominal consumption

Nominal steel consumptionFinished Steel Prdouction

Page 25: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

25

High Inventory in China remains risk factor

China : Steel Inventory & HRC spot price Producer’s inventory

Source: IISI, Bloomberg, DBS Vickers

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

06.6 06.12 07.6 07.12 08.6 08.12 09.6

(RMB/ ton)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7(m ton)

Steel Inventory in China(R)

HRC spot price in China(R)

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

02.1 03.1 04.1 05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

(m ton)

15

20

25

30

35

40(%)

Inventory of large & medium sized steel companies

Inventory ratio against production

Page 26: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Inventories of flat steel in South-eastern region are high

26

China: Inventory by product in the middleman China: Inventory by region in the middleman

Source: IISI, Bloomberg, DBS Vickers

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

06.7 06.12 07.5 07.10 08.3 08.8 09.1 09.6

(m ton)

30

40

50

60

70

80(m ton)Long steel products inventory

Flat steel products inventoryIron ore inventory

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

06.7 07.1 07.7 08.1 08.7 09.1

(m ton) BeijingGangZhouShanghai

Page 27: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel

3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic

5.5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6. New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going forward.

7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

Page 28: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

28

Korea : Major export products are downstream flat products

 Korea Steel: Export by product

2007 2008 Weght % 2009.1~10 Weght %

Long proudct 2.74 2.50 12.1 2.72 16.2

Flat product 13.71 14.79 71.1 12.20 72.7

Heavy and medium plate 0.86 1.16 5.6 1.06 6.3

HRC 3.34 3.75 18.0 3.42 20.4

CRC 3.20 3.61 17.3 3.20 19.1

Coated sheet 4.88 5.03 24.2 3.48 20.7

Pipe 1.42 1.80 8.7 0.82 4.9

Billet & slab 0.27 0.62 3.0 0.30 1.8

Total 19.14 20.79 100 16.79 100

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

Page 29: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

29

 Korea Steel: Import by product

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

2007 2008 Weght % 2009.1~10 Weght %

Long proudct 5.27 5.33 18.4 2.19 13.4

Flat product 13.52 16.11 55.7 9.06 55.3

Heavy and medium plate 4.66 7.21 24.9 3.60 22.0

HRC 7.60 7.70 26.6 4.61 28.1

CRC 0.30 0.26 0.9 0.15 0.9

Coated sheet 0.56 0.49 1.7 0.26 1.6

Pipe 0.71 0.67 2.3 0.36 2.2

Billet & slab 6.36 6.14 21.2 4.32 26.3

Total 26.50 28.94 100 16.40 100

Korea : Major import products are upstream flat products

Page 30: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

30

Korea : Diversified export, concentrated import

 Korea Steel: Export by regions

 Korea Steel: Import from regions

2007 2008 Weght % 2009.1~10 Weght %

China 3.83 3.71 17.8 4.33 25.8

Japan 2.87 2.74 13.2 1.49 8.9

S.E Asia 3.38 4.59 22.1 3.75 22.3

Europe 2.21 2.24 10.8 1.32 7.9

USA 1.96 2.25 10.8 0.89 5.3

M.S America 0.96 1.23 5.9 0.93 5.5

Total 19.14 20.79 100.0 16.79 100.0

Source: KOSA, DBS Vickers

2007 2008 Weght % 2009.1~10 Weght %

China 13.16 14.31 49.4 4.65 28.3

Japan 9.55 9.39 32.4 7.96 48.5

S.E Asia 0.43 0.56 1.9 0.87 5.3

Europe 0.07 0.08 0.3 0.06 0.3

USA 0.06 0.12 0.4 0.04 0.2

CIS 0.90 1.81 6.2 1.00 6.1

Total 26.50 28.94 100.0 16.40 100.0

Page 31: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Japan : Key supplier for upstream steel flat product Japan : Export by product

2009.1~10 Weight % 2008 2007 yoy %('08/07)

Semi- finished Steel 4,735 17.3 4,371 5,027 - 13.1

Long steel product 1,715 6.3 2,352 2,821 - 16.6

Heavy Plate 2,894 10.6 3,423 3,385 1.1

HRC 5,631 20.6 5,968 7,388 - 19.2

CRC 2,231 8.2 2,783 3,107 - 10.4

Galvanized sheet 2,725 10.0 4,652 5,307 - 12.4

Total 27,327 100.0 34,153 38,448 - 11.2

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

Page 32: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Japan : Korea is the biggest export market

 Japan : Export by region

Total China Korea S.E AsiaMiddle East EuropeN. America ow2006 35,913 6,401 8,920 13,575 1,553 783 2,381 2,2992007 38,448 6,524 10,140 15,264 1,439 835 1,928 2,3172008 34,153 6,131 8,512 13,615 1,015 784 1,756 2,3412009.1~9 27,327 5,319 7,964 9,900 899 463 1,124 1,658Weight %2008 100 18.0 24.9 39.9 3.0 2.3 5.1 6.9 2009.1~9 100 19.5 29.1 36.2 3.3 1.7 4.1 6.1

Source: JISF, DBS Vickers

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33

China, Flat steel are major export/import products

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

China : Export/Import by products

Export by product Import by product(m ton) 2009.1~10 Weight % 2008 Weight % 2009.1~10 Weight % 2008 Weight %steel products 18.40 100.0 59.18 100.0 14.86 100.0 15.39 100.01 bar and rod 1.84 10.0 12.62 21.3 0.67 4.5 0.96 6.22 angle and shapes 0.91 4.9 3.56 6.0 0.33 2.2 0.31 2.03 flat products 8.13 44.2 28.79 48.7 12.92 86.9 12.73 82.7Heavy and medium plate 2.54 13.8 7.95 13.4 1.02 6.8 1.27 8.3HRC 2.31 12.5 10.90 18.4 4.07 27.4 1.92 12.5CRC 0.74 4.0 3.49 5.9 4.24 28.6 4.12 26.8Coated and color sheet 2.46 13.3 6.26 10.6 2.91 19.6 4.37 28.44 pipe products 5.22 28.3 10.64 18.0 0.54 3.6 1.06 6.95 railway steel products 0.48 2.6 0.55 0.9 0.23 1.6 0.07 0.56 other steel products 1.82 9.9 3.02 5.1 0.17 1.2 0.25 1.67 special steel 3.04 16.5 15.75 26.6 2.53 17.0 3.24 21.1billet/slab 0.01 1.29 4.19 0.25

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34

China, Korea is #1 export market

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

China : Export by products

(m ton) 2008 Weight % 2009.1~9 Weight %

South Korea 3.11 20.2 3.44 23.2

Japan 6.04 39.3 4.39 29.5

Honkong 2.85 18.5 1.96 13.2

Taiwan 1.65 10.7 1.53 10.3

Russia 0.15 1.0 1.36 9.1

Total 15.38 100.0 14.86 100.0

2008 Weight % 2009.1~9 Weight %South Korea 13.95 23.6 4.30 23.4Japan 0.83 1.4 0.32 1.8India 1.95 3.3 0.64 3.5US 5.02 8.5 0.92 5.0S.E Asia 11.96 20.2 3.89 21.2Middle East 5.84 9.9 1.57 8.5Europe 7.50 12.7 0.94 5.1Total 59.18 100.0 18.40 100.0

China : Import by products

Page 35: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

JapanKorea

China

S.E Asia

S.E Asia would become most competitive export market

China : Export/Import by products

E: 2.7mI : 9.6

I: 0.8mE : 6.1m

E : 3.7mI : 14.3

E :13.6m

E : 4.6m

E:12m

Source: CEIC,JISF,KOSA DBS Vickers

Page 36: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel

3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic

5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6.6. New challenge : The New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going operation of new facilities in Korea going forward. forward.

7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

Page 37: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

37

Capacity development in Korea

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Korea : New facilities to be completed in 2009~2011

Plant (m ton) Completion

2009 POSCO Gangyang #4 BF Revamping 3.3 → 4.3 09.2~7

Dongbu Steel EAF Steel making plant(160t x2) 2.5 09.7

HRC plant 3

Dongkuk Steel Dangjin Heavy plate plant 1.5 09.10

Hyundai Steel Dangjin Heavy plate plant 1.5 09.12

2010 POSCO Gyaning steel making plant 2.8 10.7

Gangyang Heavy Plate plant 2 10.8

Pohang New Steel making plant 4.6 10.9

(Replaces 3.1m tons at #1 steel making plant)

Hyundai steel Dangjin #1 BF and steel making 4 10.1

2011 Hyundai steel Dangjin #2 BF and steel making 4 11.1

Dangjin C HRC Plant 3 11.1

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38

Heavy Plate, to switch surplus from shortage

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

Korea : Heavy Plate’s demand/supply forecast

Capacity Export Import(m ton) 08 10F △ 10/08 08 08Korea 7.7 13.2 6 1.3 7.2Japan 15.3 17.2 2 3.4 0.2China 65.9 115.9 50 7.95 1.3Total 88.9 146.3 57 12.65 8.7

-10

-5

-

5

10

15

08 09F 10F 11F 12F

(m ton)

CapaDemandProductionProduction-demand

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39

HRC, expect surplus in 2011

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

Korea : HRC demand/supply forecast

08 09 10F 11FDemand 3,050 2,595 3,100 3,180 For rerolling 2,130 1,800 2,220 2,230 For piping 470 400 440 470 For logistic channel 220 200 220 240 Others 230 195 220 240 Supply 2,500 2,500 2,920 3,310 POSCO 2,220 1,900 2300 2,450 Hyundai 280 250 380 610 Dongbu 50 240 250 Surplus(shortage) (550) (95) (180) 130

Capacity Export Import(m ton) 08 10F 11F △ 11/08 08 08Korea 29.5 32.0 37.0 8 3.8 7.7Japan - - - - 6 1.4China 192.5 290.0 305.0 113 10.9 1.2Total 20.7 10.3

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40

CR Products retain burden for export but..

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

Korea : CRC/Galvanized sheet demand/supply forecast

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10F 11F

(m ton)

40

45

50

55

60

65

(%)DemandProductionSurplus(shortage)weight of surplus to prouction

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

08 09 10F 11F

(m ton)

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

(%)DemandProductionSurplus(shortage)weight of surplus to prouction

CRC Galvanized sheetExport Import Export Import

(m ton) 08 08 08 08Korea 3.6 0.3 5.3 0.5Japan 2.8 0.8 4.7 0.3China 3.5 4.2 3.7 4.1Total 9.9 5.3 13.7 4.9

Capacity expansion in China(’08~10)• CRC : + 32m ( + 40%)• GAL : + 9m (+ 25%)

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41

Growing Chinese automobile demand to trigger better demand of CR products

China Automobile; production and sales

Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1

(m unit)Automobile production

Sales of passenger car

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1Q95 1Q97 1Q99 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09

(k unit)

Washing machinesHousehold RefrigheratorsColor TV setsAir Conditioners

China Home appliance; sales unit

Page 42: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Content & Summary

Source: DBS Vickers

1. Overview on steel industry of 3 Asian Countries

2. Korea Steel Industry – Net exporter but importing huge tonnes of steel

3. Japan Steel Industry – Export is main supporter for steel industry

4. China Steel Industry – Dynamic but volatile or growing but problematic

5. Implication of steel trade of 3 countries

6. New challenge : The operation of new facilities in Korea going forward.

7.7. What should be required strategy for increasing competition? What should be required strategy for increasing competition?

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43

Our Steel Demand Forecasts is bearish compared to IISI

2009 2010 IISI & DBSV(2010)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Oct '08 'Apr 09 J uly '09 Oct. 09

(%) World

World w/o China

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Oct '08 'Apr 09 J uly '09

(%) World

World w/o China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

World China World excl. China

(%)

IISI DBSV

Source: IISI, DBS Vickers

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44

Over capacity up along with expansion

World: Steel demand and capacity

Source: IISI, DBS Vickers

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09F 10F 11F

(m ton)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700(m ton)

Over CapacityCrude Steel DemandCapactiy

Page 45: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Source: IISI, BCG, Mirae Asset Research Estimates

Anticipate intensifying competition in Asia market

Competition intensity by product

Heavy PlateHeavy Plate HRCHRC CRCCRC GAL GAL

Intensity of competition

The most competitive year

2010 ~ 2011 2011 2011 ~ 2012 2011~ 2012

The most competitive market

Korea Korea

S.E Asia

China

S.E Asia

China

S.E Asia

Chief rival Domestic mills, China,

Japan

China, Japan Japan Japan

Page 46: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Source: IISI, BCG, Mirae Asset Research Estimates

Required Strategy

For the government

• Monitor closely domestic and oversea steel markets • Reshuffling measures and system to support fair competition• Recruit and breed expert on trade relationship

400

500600

700

800

9001,000

1,100

1,2001,300

1,400

07.1 07.4 07.7 07.10 08.1 08.4 08.7 08.10 09.1 09.4 09.7 09.10

Korea

Japan

China

Chinese in Korea

(US$/ton)

Page 47: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Source: IISI, BCG, Mirae Asset Research Estimates

Required Strategy

For the companies

• Financial Healthiness

• Competitiveness in Quality

• Competitiveness in Cost

• A marketing scheme for oversupplied market.

• Carry on self-restructuring and encourage industry restructuring

• Strengthen monitoring in the export markets, secure the talented in trade matters.

Page 48: 현대 ,  동부제철 가동이 한중일 시장에 미치는 영향

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. DBS Vickers Research and DBS Bank accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Thank You