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Technological Transformation and Competitiveness in the Middle East, XXXX 1

Copyright XXXX Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Strategic planning of the petrochemical industry

Ghanima Al-Sharrah

Department of Chemical Engineering,

Kuwait University,

P.O. Box 5969,

Safat 13060, Kuwait

E-mail: [email protected]

Ali Elkamel*

Department of Chemical Engineering,

University of Waterloo,

200 University Avenue,

W. Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 361

E-mail: [email protected]

*Corresponding author

Abstract: The petrochemical industry is a large and complex industry thatcontributes heavily in the economy of many Middle-East countries. It is anindustry that needs strategies for different aspects of planning and production.This work presents the main strategies that must be considered for thepetrochemical industry together with the corresponding tools. The strategies arepresented in the field of economics, Health Safety and Environmental (HSE)

and the long-range planning. The strategies will prove helpful fordecision-makers and plant engineers when selecting plants and products for thepetrochemical industry.

Keywords: petrochemical; strategy; health safety and environmental; HSE;portfolio; cycles; planning; K-wave; index; economy; product selection.

1 Introduction

The petrochemical sector plays an important role in the industries of the Middle-East

countries. This role has been linked to progress in the manufacturing sector and the

ability to promote exports (Vergara, 1991). Relatively low and stable feedstock pricesand continuous growth in demand have contributed to profitability of petrochemicals

manufacture. However, the change and evolution of the Middle-East petrochemical

industry have created the need for reliable strategic analysis tools together with the well

known strategies of products differentiations and low cost. Strategic planning is an area

of growing concerns in most industries. It is the principle dictating how products are

manufactured, how resources are used in production and how the infrastructure necessary

to support manufacturing should be organised. It is simply an effective use of resources

for a strong competitive position in the market. It reflects the goals of the industry and

enables the manufacturing function to contribute to the long-term competitiveness and

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2 G. Al-Sharrah and A. Elkamel

performance of the business. For any manufacturing firm to stay competitive in the more

globally oriented market of today, the understanding of strategic, tactical and operationalissues concerning the link between markets, products and production is fundamental

(Olhager and Wikner, 2000). A competitive position has to be constantly created and

protected.

Usually, in the petrochemical industry field, the countrys needs and objectives are

first identified and the next stage focuses on various technology alternatives in order to

choose the appropriate technology and production rates based on the decision-makers

strategy. One of the widely recognised goals for a development strategy is sustainability

or sustainable development. The latter is defined as economic development that meets

the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs (World Commission on Environment and

Development, 1987). Sustainability, as an objective, has many indicators; the most

important of which are the economical gain and Health Safety and Environmental (HSE)protection.

Engineers have, in the past, been successful by trusting their experience and

intelligence when locating industry resources to plants manufacturing products.

The variety of products and manufacturing processes continues to grow, therefore,

manufacturing companies need systematic procedures and tools for strategic decisions so

that fewer mistakes occur, decisions conform to standards practice and new engineers

can perform the job efficiently and effectively. Many tools are proposed and used in the

literature the most useful and relevant to the petrochemical industry are presented in the

following sections.

2 Economic strategy

One of the greatest challenges facing the petrochemical industry in the new century is the

process of selecting which new products to develop when capital resources are limited

and stakeholders are demanding ever increasing rates of returns in addition to strict HSE

constraints imposed by governments. Although decision-makers for a large industry like

the petrochemical industry have a an excellent experience in the field of products

selection and planning, they need tools to manage the strategy effort in the right direction

(e.g. the industrys strength and weakness, opportunities and threats) and to give

confidence in some situations. For a specific manufacturing firm, the task of selecting the

most appropriate set of tools is not trivial. However, in recent years the understanding of

the relationship between tools and the manufacturing environment for which they are

suitable has increased (Olhager and Wikner, 2000).

Quezada et al. (1999) outlined performance indicators to obtain an overall picture ofthe company/industry business at an economical strategic level:

Net sales.

Sales index: net sales in relation to a reference value of 100.

Capital intensity: investment divided by added-value

Added-value = net sales cost of purchases.

Productivity: added-value per employee.

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Strategic planning of the petrochemical industry 3

Relative market share: market participation in relation to three main

competitors.

Market growth.

Frequency of innovation: sales of products with less than three yearsin the market.

Vertical integration: added-value divided by sales.

Direction of the change of the previous indicators.

Usually, the main step in developing an economic strategy is to prepare a list of all the

products that are in the portfolio of the industry for which a strategy is being prepared.

It is then necessary to identify the development and competitive advantage the industry is

able to achieve through these products using a strategic tool. One economical strategic

tool used in planning and product selection is the Bill of Material (BOM) (Olhager andWikner, 2000). Normally the end product is broken down into a number of intermediate

products and additives. This creates a list of items, each with its own BOM, representing

the items needed to produce an item. Therefore, any production planning should be

accompanied by BOMs for successful operations. In strategic planning, the focus is now

for a flatter BOM, a shorter internal supply chain and simpler production schemes.

Another strategic tool used in planning and products selection is the Boston

Consulting Group (BCG) business portfolio matrix, as illustrated in Figure 1. Although

developed for a multidivisional firm, this matrix can be used in a firm with a

multiproduct portfolio like the petrochemical industry; the contribution of the product to

the competitive position of the firm being similar to that of the business. The BCG matrix

is a simple four-square grid. One axis represents the Relative Competitive Position

usually measured by market share, and the other represents Business Growth Rate

expressed as a percentage of increase in sales. Businesses are placed in the quarters

according to an assessment of their performance. In the BCG matrix shown in Figure 1,

the size of a circle is proportional to the size of the corresponding business involved or

the production rate of the corresponding industrial plant. The names given to each

quarter are supposed to reflect the nature of the business. Products in the Starquadrant

have both high market standing and high industry growth potential. They should receive

heavy cash investment in order to maintain their market share. Cash cows have strong

market position in industries that have matured. These products can thus be cash

generators. Dogs are those products that usually have high cost-competitive position, so

that in times of high inflation they may not have sufficient cash to maintain their

business. Question marks are those products with a high cash need; their potential for

cash generation is low as they only currently only have a low market share.

To use the BCG matrix, a company would determine the values of each dimensionfor each of its products and when placed in the matrix this would provide an overview of

the company portfolio. It would indicate if the parts of the business were concentrated in

one area. The theory suggests that portfolios should be reasonably balanced among

Stars, Cash cows and Question marks and that this is the desired direction for continued

success and profitability. A company may develop a product in a high-growth market,

which initially has a low market share (Question mark). The company should plan to

increase the market share and thus move the product into the Starcategory. While the

product remains a Star, it is unlikely to release cash. This is so since the market for this

product is still growing rapidly and the cash generated, and maybe more, will be required

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for new plants to satisfy the increases in demand. As the market growth rate slows down,

less cash is required for reinvestment and thus the product automatically becomes aCash cow. In this case, the cash will be released rather than used for reinvestment. As the

growth slows even further, the theory enables revitalisation to the Question markstage

and so the cycle begins again. Dogs are low market-share products in a declining

industry and so the firm should exit from these businesses unless there is a special reason

for not doing so. If there are too many Stars, a cash crisis may result; if too many

Cash cows, future profitability may be in jeopardy, and too many Question marks may

affect current profitability.

Figure 1 The BCG business portfolio matrix

The portfolio matrix as such can be a useful analytical device for organising ideas about

the industry products. Al-Sharrah et al. (2002) used this BCG portfolio matrix concept asa constraint for planning the petrochemical industry in Kuwait. All products in the

optimum selected petrochemical network have to be well distributed among Cash cows,

Stars and Question marks with very fewDogs.

Another strategic tool, which has the matrix form, is the General Electric (GE)/

McKinsey matrix. This matrix, shown in Figure 2, was developed in 1971 and was

designed to overcome the shortfalls that companies were encountering with the

BCG matrix. This matrix is known as the industry attractiveness business strength

matrix or the nine-box matrix and is used in a similar way as the BCG matrix. The matrix

can be described as a multifactor model and has a greater flexibility compared to the

BCG, in terms of the elements that can be included.

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Figure 2 The GE/McKinsey matrix

In the GE/McKinsey matrix, business strength is plotted on the vertical axis, the

industry attractiveness on the horizontal axis and the size of the circle represents

the size of the industry with a shaded wedge representing the firms current share of theindustry. This model suggests that the long run profitability of each product in the

industry is influenced by the products strength and that the ability and incentives of

an industry to maintain or improve its position in a market depends on its products

attractiveness. Different strategists and consultants have devised different sets of

variables for industry or market attractiveness; typical factors that affect market

attractiveness are market size, market growth rate and market profitability. The other

matrix dimension, business strength, is a factor that implies among others, high present

or future cash flow, high relative profit margins and high product quality.

The matrix is divided into nine cells. The three cells at the top left hand side of the

matrix are the most attractive and require a policy of investment for growth. The three

cells running diagonally upwards from left to right have a medium attractiveness and

the management of businesses within this category should be more cautious. Finally, the

three cells at the bottom right hand side are the least attractive, and management should

follow a policy of business rejection unless the relative strengths can be improved.

Al-Sharrah et al. (2006) used the GE/McKinsey matrix together with a multiple

objectives model to plan a petrochemical industry and results gave a balanced

petrochemical network satisfying different needs.

The matrix has been criticised as being too complicated and paying too little

attention to the environment. This second criticism led to the development of the

environmental-strategy matrix (Jose, 1996). The factors included that contribute to

market attractiveness in this matrix may include market size and share, product quality

capacity utilisation and capital intensity. For environmental aspects, energy intensity,

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potential for accidents penalty costs and environmental impact can be considered.

The matrix is shown in Figure 3 with the box being in the highest leftmost cell is themost sustainable and strategically advantageous position for the industry. Similar to the

previously discussed economical strategic tools, the axes of the industry have to be set

and the planned products are located on the matrix accordingly. At the level of the

petrochemical industry, moving leftwards on the environmental attractiveness axis may

manipulate factors as energy usage, efficiency, safety precautions and emission levels.

And the attempt to move vertically will require improvement in market factors such as

overall market size and market growth.

Figure 3 The environmental-strategy matrix

Source: Jose (1996).

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The importance of HSE issues for the petrochemical industry makes it in a position for

special attention and in many cases separate strategic tools have to be deigned to handletheses issues with a sufficient attention.

3 HSE strategic tools

HSE issues are a concern for all industries, but particularly for the petrochemical

industry. The consumers, employees, shareholders, legislators and the communities for

which the industry operates are all becoming increasingly aware of HSE issues and

demand ever-higher standards. Therefore, it is essential to include the HSE aspect in the

strategy for any industry. No industry will hold a strong position in the national or

international market without adhering to and respecting HSE rules.

Over the last 20 years, there has been a very rapid growth in environmentally relatedlegislation affecting the petrochemical industry. The development of environmentalism

in the industry has proceeded along two waves(Ulhoi, 1998). The first environmental

wave primarily was based on natures declining capacity to provide essential raw

materials such as fossil energy, metals, etc. The second wave was primarily concerned

with natures capacity to absorb the waste from economic development. The quest for

pollution prevention and increased pressure and demand for environmental well being

and sustainable processes and products has created a new ethos in the process industry.

Within the petrochemical industry, support for the concept of environmental sustainable

development is based on (Kohlhase, 1994):

protecting and improving the quality of the environment

prudent management of available resources including development of new,clean and energy efficient technology

the transition towards a cleaner and more sustainable mix of energy sources andconsumption patterns (including a switch from high carbon to low carbon fuels).

Some studies used environmental evaluation tools in the design stage of a single process

with relatively complex indicators. Young and Cabezas (1999) used the Waste Reduction

(WAR) algorithm which is a tool to be used by design engineers to aid evaluating the

environmental friendliness of a process. This algorithm determines the potential

environmental impact of a chemical process and of the energy consumed within the

process. Steffens et al. (1999)

used a multiple criteria function to represent the

sustainable design. The work used two environmental impact indicators to rank

flowsheets: Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and the Sustainable Process Index (SPI). LCA is

a method to identify and quantify the environmental performance of a process from

cradle to grave. The SPI does not focus on the impact of pollutant streams leaving the

system, but instead evaluates the sustainability of the whole system. The basic units used

by the SPI are the amount of area which is required to embed a process sustainability into

the environment. The total area is made up of the area for raw materials production, the

area required to provide process energy, the area for process installations, the area for

staff and the area required to accommodate products and by-products (including wastes).

Another field of growing concerns for establishing a HSE strategy for the chemical

and the petrochemical industry is route selection indices. Route selection means early

stage chemical manufacturing planning from feedstock to final products. The route

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selection is based on calculating some indices for the chemical manufacturing process, in

the existing or proposed industry and ranking these routes according to their hazardouseffects. Thus, the routes that are hazardous can be identified and avoided when the

selection is made in the early stage production plan strategy. The indices usually have a

simple form enabling their usage in the earliest stage of planning when the most detailed

process information is still lacking and when strategic planning involved hazard

identification for a large number of plants.

In the petrochemical industry, the first forms of simple safety indices for HSE

strategic planning started in the 1980s after the development of optimisation models for

the industry. The indices at that time were very simple; they were the first introduction of

safety into planning. Fathi-Afshar and Yang (1985) selected the chemical Threshold

Limit Value (TLV) (concentration of a substance in the air to which workers can be

exposed to without adverse effect) as an indicator for a health objective function.

For example, chemical 1 is considered more harmful than chemical 2 if TLV1 is less thanTLV

2; so the index is represented as the reciprocal of TLV.

The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) (1994) has developed a system

for indicating the health, flammability and reactivity hazards of chemicals. The system

is based on giving a number (from 0 to 4) to a chemical indicating its effect.

Al-Sharrah et al. (2001) used these NFPA health ratings as an index for an environmental

objective in petrochemical planning.

Other groups of safety indices present a more detailed approach to quantifying safety

in the early stage of HSE strategic planning. Examples are the Edwards and Lawrence

(1993) and the Heikkila et al. (1996) indices. These indices has been calculated as a total

score, which is the sum of a chemical score and a process score and taking into

consideration many manufacturing parameters such as inventory, flammability as flash

point and boiling point, explosiveness as a difference between explosion limits and

toxicity as TLV, temperature and pressure.

Cave and Edwards (1997) proposed an Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) that ranks

routes (raw materials and reactions to produce the final product) in chemical plant

development by the estimated environmental impact of a total release of chemical

inventory. The index considers the hazard to the aquatic and the terrestrial ecosystems.

Also, an index by Gunasekera and Edwards (2001, 2003), called the Atmospheric Hazard

Index (AHI), can be used to assess the potential impact of airborne releases from

a chemical production plant. A catastrophic failure of the plant is assumed and the

impact on the atmospheric environment is estimated. The atmospheric impact

categories considered were the toxicity, photochemical smog, acid deposition, global

warming and ozone depletion of a chemical when it is released catastrophically into the

environment.

The HSE protection strategy requires the full participation of everyone in the industrysupported with a strong desire of innovation. One problem in this field is that some

industries are not encouraged to initiate and implement HSE strategic tools. There are

many reasons responsible for this; key among them are a lack of awareness and the fear

of applying new designs that have not been implemented before. The industry can face

these problems easily since it can measure HSE performance in a number of different

ways that range from compliance with existing internal standards and applicable

regulations, to the amount of emissions, to environmental costs to hazard indices.

The successful implementation of one or more of these strategies should help

petrochemical plants to increase earnings and fit strongly in the current market.

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However, they cannot ensures a bright long-term future. Other long-term influences on

the industry have to be studied and included in the overall strategy; these include thelong- and short-term trend and disturbance affecting the petrochemicals.

4 Long-range planning

The outlook for the global petrochemical industry is uncertain as it has ever been.

The petrochemical industry is a dynamic industry. The demand and prices for products

continuously change, as will all the factors that determine profitability (e.g. labour,

raw material and utilities costs). In approaching maturity, the petrochemical industry can

be treated as any commodity and therefore it is subjected to severe cycling in its

profitability. The industry cycles usually have long-range duration (decades) and/or

short-range duration (years). The notion that global economic growth occurs in series oflong-range cycles of more or less 50 years duration is generally associated with the work

of the Russian economist N.D. Kondratieff in the 1920s. Statistical work on the

behaviour of prices, and some output series, for the USA and Britain since the 1790s, led

him to conclude that the existence of long cycles or waves was very probable. Thereafter,

this has been named after him (Kondratieff wave or simply K-wave). Looking at the

cause of this long-wave, different approaches can be found in the literature ranging from

pure exogenous causality, for example, solar activity and/or astronomical configurations,

to a pure endogenous process of a biological or social nature (Devezas, 1999).

Kondratieff expressed the belief that the dynamics of free market economics are not

linear and continually progress upwards in a cyclical manner. He acknowledged that each

cycle advanced and developed the economy further and brought it to a new height.

The cyclical economic growth or K-wave is related to the innovation in products.Therefore, each wave is associated with a new technological environment in which new

products replace old ones.

Kondratieff taught and believed in the intermediate 711 years cycle that many

economists believe in today. However, Kondratieff taught that reducing the system to

this small cycle only was simplistic and that a broader long-wave scope should be

superimposed into the development of the system (Barker, 1995). He also recognised the

necessity for flexibility in the system and believed that the long cycles fluctuate between

45 and 60 years. Figure 4 shows an outline for K-waves recognised by economists and

the corresponding dominant forces during each wave.

The foundation of Kondratieffs theory and the element considered to be one of the

most important aspects of his research is the cycles impact on the rise and fall of prices.

The movement of prices is key to understanding the K-wave and the effect that the

K-wave has on investment and planning. Raw material and commodity prices in the

recent decades have closely followed the outline Kondratieff laid out for the rise and fall

of the cycle (Barker, 1995).

Kondratieff was not the only person to notice long-term cycles within the economy.

In 1939, the economist Joseph Schumpeter and the author of the concept Creative

Destruction hypothesised that technology runs in 50-year waves. Schumpeter noticed

that bursts of technical transformation coincides with upturns in economic activity

(Dewey and Dalein, 1987). According to Schumpeter new technology drives the

economic growth and the more the innovation in technology the greater is the chance of

damage to the economy; especially through loss of jobs. This has inspired a group of

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researchers at MIT; most notable John Sterman, to show how interactions between

multiple time scales in a non-linear model can lead to long-waves cycles about 50 yearsin length, on top of short-waves cycles

(Sterman, 1985, 1990, 1992). The debate

continued concerning the existence of the long wave itself. Although some analysts may

simply argue that a pattern is being forcibly created, there is a strong supportive evidence

from Stermans work (using modelling methodologies) that the long wave is a reality.

Figure 4 Kondratieff long waves and their basic characteristics

Source: On figure in Dicken (1998).

History of the long wave has been discussed since its discovery by Kondratieff.This long history, however, did not effectively transfer the long wave to the main stream

of the investment community. Many economists and financial planners pass over its

implication and on the petrochemical industry side there is little evidence that major

consulting houses paid the slightest attention to the long wave. Creativity in this field

comes from using these long-range concepts in dealing with uncertainly of planning

issues. Although petrochemicals are governed by many deterministic laws, the

uncertainty and ways with dealing with it have a strong effect on decision making and

strategies. Long-term cycles are key factors in analysing and modelling the economic

activity of large international industries such as the petrochemical industry and

understanding them is essential for sound investment decisions (Alatiqi and Notley,

1998). Yimoyines(1995) explained this by recognising that the petrochemical industry is

characterised by large plants that take several years to be built. Finally, the plants come

on stream together, creating oversupply and thus the bottom of the cycle. Sedriks (1999)

stated that the petrochemical industry has become commoditised and subjected to severe

cycling in its profitability due to cycling in demand (linked to business cycle) and

capacity expansion (linked to construction cycle).

It is important to emphasis that K-waves are not exactly about history repeating.

Instead, they are about the dangers and rewards of going there(Zwick, 1998). It is clear

that there is a risk of ignoring and/or abandoning a viable economic opportunity, which

the understanding of the long wave should help avert. Market analysts know that the

cycles of human progress are based on a psychology which takes a long time to manifest

and will not accrue in a strict periodic rhythm(Slaytyer, 2002).

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Long waves or cycles occur on the top of smaller cycles that have significant effects

on the economy in the short-range. A famous short cycle is the Kitchin 3 to 4 yearcycle. It is also closely related to the business cycle that affects business activities,

interest rates and wholesale and retail prices. One variable that is strongly affected by

short-term cycles is the energy prices, mainly oil prices. These are determined by the

capacity use of OPEC members and other producers. The capacity use, however, is

influenced by the simultaneous actions and interactions of numerous variables that affect

supply, demands and producers actions. Stanford Research Institute (1992) stated some

variables affecting oil price and consequently causing short-term disturbances to the

petrochemical industry; these variable include:

Slowing World Economic Growth.

Rising World (excluding OPEC) Oil Production.

Natural Gas Substitution for Oil.

Oil Conservation.

OPEC Capacity Additions.

OPEC Downstream Discounting to Gain Market Share.

Accelerating World Economic Growth.

OPEC Ability to Limit Production.

Decline in the Use of Nuclear Power.

Decrease in Oil Exports from the Former Soviet Union.

Decline in US Oil Production.

Environmental Restrictions Limiting Oil Exploration and Coal Use.

Long- and short-term cycles must be treated in the context of investment strategy; they

assist and support strategies for planning. Although applications and uses of long cycles

can be found for interest rates (Notley, 1994), commodities prices (Murphy, 1986),

stocks and bond forecasting (Pring, 1991), applications in the petrochemical field are

limited. Alatiqi and Notely (1998) used the concept to study investment timing, Sedriks

(1999) used it for timing of plant construction and Al-Sharrah et al. (2006) used it for

modelling disturbance of the petrochemical industry caused by changing oil prices.

5 Conclusions and recommendations

This chapter takes a critical first step towards drawing attention to the importance of

studying manufacturing strategy for the petrochemical industry. Improving the

performance of complex systems such as the petrochemical industry for the production

of different products will require research into methodologies and tools for strategic

planning. Several structures have been proposed for testing the acceptability of a chosen

strategy, however, there is no one best way for the industry. Major criteria for strategy

choice consists of selecting action plans linked with clearly understood objectives

and targets especially those related to profit, health, safety and environment protection.

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The selected strategy should be consistent with physical facilities and financial resources

availability in the present and future. Flexibility is also essential for strategy making inorder to respond to competitors reactions and changes in environmental and economic

demands. The petrochemical industry must continually monitor market, product,

technological improvements and environmental regulations, and safety precautions in

order to ensure the best position in the market.

The globalisation of the industrial relations has also put an enormous burden on

strategic planning for big industries such as the petrochemical industry. It comes in the

form of complexity resulting from the poorly understood and difficultly predicted

political, economical, legal and environmental factors that vary constantly in an

international scale. One useful way of dealing with this situation, especially for the

Middle-East, involves cooperative strategies such as joint ventures. It can facilitate a

quick project establishment and with a reduced risk since both parties share the strategy

selection, decision making, control and the benefits of the operation. Moreover it willopen more markets for the products and ease the marketing difficulties

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