談已發展與發展中國家數位落差

:

Kenny Huang, Ph.D.

Executive Council Member, APNIC

[email protected]. 07

2

Digital Divide Introduction

Financial Strategy

Policy Strategy

Digital Divide :

() (Hargittai, 2002)

: : :

() : (1) (UN, World Bank, ADB.., etc.) ; (2) Root ServersRoot ZonesRPKI (ICANNVerisignAPNIC)

: (1) (Internet Society, APNIC, ICANN ..,etc.); (2)()

: 1% 4.3% (World Bank, 2009)

3

4

89.0%

73.9%

57.4%45.6%

28.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

North America Eueope Middle East Asia Africa

: Internetworldstats, 2016

5

92.1% 91.0%83.8% 81.3% 80.2%

19.3% 17.8% 14.9% 12.0% 0.1%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%


6

68.4%60.3% 60.0% 59.6%

52.6%

4.1% 3.8% 3.3% 2.4% 1.0%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%


IPv6 adoption

23.6

13.6 12.8

1.60.5 0.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

7Source : Akamai , 2016

9 : Telegraphy, 2016

IX

10 : Telegraphy, 2016

11

ISP ISP

ISP ISP

IXP

Internet

Transit TransitTransitTransit

private peer

access

issues

access accesss

accesss

Transit : IX : Access :

12

87 78 8794 98 96 99

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All adults $150K

: Pew Research, 2016

13

3436

3941

4448

52

5854

60 6164

71 7274 74

5860

6466

6871

75 7478 79

80

8587 86 86

89

7275 76

8183

85 86 8688

9288

9093 93 93

96

8184 85

87 8891 92

9395 95 95

97 97 97 96 97

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015Less than $30K $30K-$49,999 $50K-$74,999 $75K+

%


14

67

45

6881

90 87 88

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All adults $150K


15

6953

71 7686 88 90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All adults $150K


16

87

61

8294 96

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All adults < HS HS dip. Some coll Coll grad +


17

7881 83

85 8688

91 92 9394 93 94

96 96 96 95

67 6873 75

7679

83 8586 87 87

89 9192 91 90

4043

4851 53

5761

65 6568 67

7275 76 76

79

19 2124 25

2730

3740 38 40

41

5055

6055

68

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015College+ Some college HS grad Less than HS

%


18

67

22

5675

88

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All adults < High school HS diploma Some college College degree+


19 : Pew Research, 2016

20


22


Financial Strategy

Policy Strategy

23

Fixed cost

BEP

Fixed cost

BEP

Fixed cost

BEPsales

cost

cost

cost

salessales

A B C

[ ] [ ] [ ]

*BEP : Breakeven Point

Boston Matrix /

24

HIGH LOW

HIGH

LOW

Cash Cows Dogs

Stars Question Marks

Relative Market Share

Market G

rowth Rate

Boston Matrix

25

HIGH LOW

HIGH

LOW

Relative Market Share

Market G

rowth Rate

Cash used - - -Cash generated +++

0

Cash used - - -Cash generated +

- -

Cash used -Cash generated +++

++

Cash used -Cash generated +

0

Revenue

TimeValley of Death

AngelsFounders

Venture CapitalStrategic Investors

Public Markets

Seed Capital

A

B

C

Mezzanine

Early Stage Later Stage

IPO

SecondaryOfferings

The Chasm The Wall

Seed or Start-up: Market research and product development.Early Stage: Funding full-scale operations and selling products/services. Not yet profitable.Later Stage: Funding expansion and new products. Near break-even.

Financial Strategy

27

Use of Proceeds

Working Capital

Oversea/BizExpansion

Why and How Much to Get?

Corporate Structure

Corporate Strategy

Financial Projection

Cost Model

Revenue Model

Exit Strategy

Tax Planning

Interest Alignment

Marketing Strategy

Market Size & Potential

Product / Service

Pricing

Expansion Strategy

JV

Solely Own

Export

Staffing Plan

Office

COGS

Competition

Burn Rate

Sales Forecast

Equity Financing

Valuation / Dilution

Class of Shares

Debt Financing

BOT

Term Sheet Issues

Valuation Pre-money Post-money

Price Per share Warrants

Structure Liquidation preference Dividends Redemption rights Anti-dilution

Control Directors No-shop clauses Conversion / automatic conversion Restricted actions First offer rights

:

29

1

2

3,

4

7

8 9

6

5 ,

BOT :

30

1

4

2

3 4

5

6

10

7

9

11

8

Global Capital Market Trends

31Source : Designed by Dr. Kenny Huang

MM USD

Trade in Commercial Services (2010-2014)Telecommunication, Computer and Information Services

32

Reporter Flow indicator Partner 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chinese Taipei Exports

Telecommunication, Computer and Information Services World 610 827 1108 1396 1772

ChineseTaipei Imports

Telecommunication, Computer and Information Services World 889 1021 1179 1193 1240

: WTO Statistics Database, 2015

Unit : US dollar (Millions)

33

IPOs and Private Financing Deals in the Tech Sector since 2000 (United States)

Source: PwC

Source: Techcrunch

If there is a bubble, investors would recover their investment and perhaps walk away with positive return, the biggest losers for sure would be the employees and founders.

Game Rule : You Pick The Valuation, I Pick The Terms

PPP

34

PPP (Public Private Partnership)

PPP(US$1 trillion)

: World Bank

35

PPP PPP ()

PPP

36

37

PPP

PPP PPP / O&M PPP PPP 100% PPP

NPV COST A

NPV COST B < NPV COST A

NPV COST B

PPP

38

sizing

: PPP

PPP

PPP

39

: World Bank

(2012 2013)

40

: World Bank

PPP

41

O& M

PPP

,

PPP 20-30

PPP

42

O& M

PPP

,

()

PPP

43

Availability Based Market Based PPP PPP PPP PPP

Availability / + + +

PPP

44

PPP

,

, =

20 2008Basel III,

(7-10, )

D/E Ratio 80-90%

UN Digital Solidarity Fund

UNDP (UN Development Programmes) SDG (sustainable development goals)

World Bank International Development Association

OECD Asia Development Bank International internet development funds

IIDF (Internet Initiatives Development Funds) ISIF (Information Society Innovation Fund) APNIC Foundation

Others45

Funding and Implementation Processes

46

Identification*

Preparation*

Appraisal*

Approval

Implementation

Completion*

Post Evaluation

PBST Model

47

Policy EnvironmentPolitical parties introductionRuling partyICT policy

Society EnvironmentPopulation; Land area; Capital cityEducation introduction

Business EnvironmentGDP(PPP) in 2016Major industriesExport / import items Industrial labor pupulation

Technology EnvironmentInternet and telecom marketInternet penetrationGovernment authority for ICT policy

Design and Monitoring Framework

48

Stakeholder Analysis

ProblemAnalysis

ObjectivesAnalysis

AlternativesAnalysis

Design

DesignSummary

Performance Targets/ Indicators

Data Sources/Reporting

Mechanisms

Assumptions/Risks

Impact

Activities with Milestones Inputs

Design and Monitoring Framework

Outcome

Outputs

(DMF)

source : World Bank; ADB

Project IdentificationAlternatives Analysis

49

Low Internet penetration

High access cost

Limit access to information &knowledge

Small market Market failure

InadequateInternet access

Human right infringement

Poor infrastructure

Inadequate skills in network operation

Restrict national competency

Limit network services

Jeopardize innovation

Enabling Infrastructure Capacity building

New net-enabled innovations and

services

Stimulate innovation

Improve national competitiveness

Increase business productivity

Equal access to the Internet

Inefficient business processes

Enable knowledge &information

sharing

Enrich Internet accessibility

Neutralize access cost

Criteria (Socioeconomic): Universal access

Consultation on Govt. intervention

strategy

Consultation on stimulus planning

appropriate Internet

penetration

(Sample)

50

Design Summary Performance Targets/IndicatorsData Sources/

Reporting MechanismsAssumptions (A) /

Risks (R)ImpactThe Internet penetration of the country has improved

The internet penetration increased from 48.4% to 54.6% at the end of project implementation at year 4.

Annual Internet statistics report .International

Telecommunication Union (ITU)

A: The Ministry's policy regarding the provision of public network services remains unchanged.

OutcomeThe population in target districts use advanced wireless services.

The Internet infrastructure expanded to 5 districts with 1.7 sq. KM wireless service coverage at the end of project implementation.Internet users in the 5 selected districts increased 10080 at the end of project implementation.

Project Report , Ministry of Public Service

A: The NICTO ensures that the wireless network is well maintained, followinga maintenance standard.A: Operating expenses remain stable

Outputs1 Enabling infrastructure2 Capacity building

The wireless service coverage increases 1.7 sq. KM in year 2. The Internet users increased from 2520 in year 3, to 10080 in year 4.

Records of Project ManagementOffice

R: The spectrum registration or wireless service application rejected by NCCR: The existing towers of base station can't be used for colcation of new system.

Activities1.1 site survey1.2 conceptual design 1.3 Base station colocation and leasing1.4 detail design 1.5 infrastructure implementation 1.6 service activation

InputsDonor $2.5 million (80% contribution)Consulting - $0.3 millionPersonnel - $0.55 millionEquipment - $1.28 millionCapacity Building - $0.25 millionContingencies - $0.11 millionGovernment - $0.6 million (20% contribution)Personnel - $0.36 millionLogistics - $0.14 million (colocation)Operating expenses $0.1 million

2.1 site survey look and see2.2 network engineering training2.3 help desk training2.4 remote hands and eyes SOP2.5 network operation training

(Sample)

Intangible Value (sample)

51

48.454.6

6.2% increase

Penetration

617KM2

1.76 KM2

WiFi Coverage

Civil Work

Project Staffs

Tangible Value (sample)

52

1. A 10% increase in infrastructure penetration raises per capita GDP growth by 0.8-1.5 percentage points (OECD,2009)2. 6.2(%) * 0.8% /10 =0.5%

GDP

Estimated Value

Operation Profile : Scenario 4 (10,080 users)Product Price : USD160 /user*year (WiFly, 7WiFi)Asset Depreciated : 8 Years

Return on Value= Estimated ValueTaiwan Contribution

Taiwan contribution = $2.5M*100%

RoV: Return on Value

53


Financial Strategy

Policy Strategy

54

PLANNING MODELS

GOALS

INTERVENTION MODELS

,

,

: , , 2013

55

72

360201475%50Mbps

202090%100Mbps

20122Mbps7521

2015(1Gbps,100Mbps)

, 1Gbps ,

32

: ; , 2013

,

56

,

,

(,)

Constructio

n Effect

Positive Externalities

: : , , 2013

GDP

57

High Broadband Penetration Regions

Low Broadband Penetration Regions

p , ()

p (, )

p ()p /(

)

(*)results are at a low significance level

: OECD; , 2013

Broadband

Stimulus Plan

Good

s/Sector

Input-Output table(each column of the input-output matrix reports the monetary value of an industrys inputs and each row represents the value of an industrys output)

Inpu

ts

Househ

olds

State

Investmen

tsExpo

rts

demand

End

+

Volume of Goo

ds

Impo

rts

Gross d

omestic

produ

ct

= - =

Sector

Inputs

Value added

Gross production

Imports

Volume of goods

+

=

+

=

Inpu

t side

Employment and production effects

Output side (use side)

OECD; , 2013

Structure of Input-Output Table

58

GDP

59

, , ,

GDP: 0.008

,, ,, , ,

GDP: 0.014

, , , ,

GDP: 0.023

: OECD; , 2013

G

D

P

G

D

P

60

CPE ARPU ARPU

OpEx EBITDA

EBIT

CapExNPV

,100%NPV

: OECD; , 2013

61

CPE ARPU ARPU

OpEx EBITDA

EBIT

ROW

: OECD; , 2013

:

62

40%-50%

, , (micro-telcos)

, (92)

,

Retailers of last resort

platform-based competition

: ITU;

63

p (, , ) p

p ()

p

p (Supplier of Last Resort)

A

B

C

D

E

p

: ITU; , 2013

?,

, , , ()

,

64 : ITU, 2012

65

(M-Taiwan) R R

R

R

ide@ Taiwan 2020 R R

: ;

66

2266 1126 942

782 375 380

448 197 151

7687 3814 2453

EPS 4.98 5.56 3.52

ROA 8.82 10.7 9.5 99.1 111.5 73.5 *2014

2G, 3G4G, 650-7005%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

() 66,481 70,542 66,876 70,279 69,418 65,195 61,800 64,400

73% 64% 65% 68% 68% 61% 58% 60%

10% 22% 21% 20% 19% 23% 23% 22%

17% 14% 14% 13% 13% 16% 19% 18%

-2% 4% -2% 3% 2% -4% -5% +4%

1.4 GDP 1/10

67

pGDP 1/10p

p

pp

ADSLFTTXMobile

CableMobile

Mobile

68

: APNIC, 2016

69

2016.01.20

1117597

743394*

739392*

(1/30)(6.27Mbps /NCC)

1,248 G 823 G(560G)

819 G(400G)

449ADSL/FTTx

20cable modem

n.d.

(1/10)(15Mbps )

6,735 G** 300 G(155G)

(43G)

(36G)

(CDN)51G-HiNet

(CDN)41G-HiNet

(+) 7,983G 1,123G 862G

*; **

70

:

Free peering

Paid peering

ICP/ISP

ICP/ISP

0 10

2 8

10 0

10 0

/

Zero-sum Game

ISP

(, , ) :

(cable) (Micro-ISP; Community ISP) , , (platform-based competition) (LLU)

71

72

Infrastructure Unbundling

: DSL: Cable: /: /: /

Parallel Infrastructure

: : : : :

Government Intervention

: Super WiFi, incentive auction, : Digital dividend; ,: , , : , : , ,

: ITU; , 2013