CPFR ®協同規劃預測和補貨──供銷關係的重新界定

國立中央大學 . 資訊管理系范錚強

Tel: (03)426-7250

mailto: ckfarn@mgt.ncu.edu.tw

http://www.mgt.ncu.edu.tw/~ckfarn

2005.03

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供應鏈中的電子化觀念

QR: Quick Response1984, 主要是服飾業快速反應顧客需求解決庫存積壓和過期問題

ECR: Efficient Consumer Response1992, 零售業，擴大 QR 觀念涵蓋供應商和製造商

VMI/SMICPFR® : Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment

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CPFR ® : 協同規劃、預測和供貨

1990 代初， Wal-Mart 和 Warner-Lambert 開始新嘗試根據此觀念 VICS (Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards ) 發展 CPFR 模型優點

降低庫存降低缺貨增加營業額

Develop front-end agreement

Create joint business plan

Create sales forecast

Identify and resolve exceptions

Create order forecast

Identify and resolve exceptions

Order generation

Source: www.cpfr.org

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Tasks that Support Collaboration

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CPFR Scenarios

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Collaboration Role Alternatives

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Conventional Organizational Roles

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Collaborative Organizational Structure

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Resolve / Collaborate On Exception Items

Identify Exceptions for Sales Forecast

Create Joint Business Plan

Distributor Business Development Activities

Manufacturer Business Development Activities

Manufacturer Materials & Production

Planning

Create Sales Forecast

Create Order Forecast

Identify Exceptions for Order Forecast

Resolve / Collaborate On Exception Items

Order Generation Produce Product

Delivery ExecutionOrder Filling /

Shipment ExecutionDistributor Receiving

Retail Store

Consumer

LongTerm

Feedback

POS Data

Short Term

Order / PO

Distributor Exception Triggers

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3

4

5

6

Product

Updated Data for Exception Items

Exception Items

Order filling feedback

Manufacturer Exception Triggers

Frozen Forecast

Key :Distributor

Activities

Either / J oint

Activities

Manufacturer

Activities

Business Model - Scenario B

Exception Items

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Distributor Exception Triggers

Manufacturer Exception Triggers

Distributor Decision Support Data

ManufacturerDecision Support Data

Plan

nin

gF

orecastin

gR

eplen

ishm

ent

Develop Front-End Agreement1

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Order Forecast

Constraints

Excep

tion

Criteria

Excep

tion

Criteria

Distributor Decision Support Data

ManufacturerDecision Support Data

Unresolved Supply Constraints

Business model: B

Source: www.cpfr.org

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CPFR Technology

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觀念：例外處理

雙方長期合作對合作達成承諾

規劃合作的營運計畫

預測雙方預測間的差異的解決

供貨、訂單雙方訂單間的差異的解決

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精確的伙伴預測

Time

Sales

Retailer forecast too low

Retailer forecast too high

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階段性差異

Time

Sales

using point-of-sales data to rapidly update forecasts for new products

sharing of planning information automatic

monitoring of sales, shared exception alerts

using the supplier’s forecast

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資料來源

http://www.cpfr.org

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個案

力山 case製商整合 e 化個案集（第一冊）， 教育部，2004

討論請探討 JIT, VMI, CPFR 三者在供銷關係上的差異個案問題 1-5